Orlando Magic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (Nov. 16, 2022): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction

The Orlando Magic close their homestand going up against the Minnesota Timberwolves as they try to measure up against their opponent’s size inside.

Orlando Magic (4-10) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6-8)

Time/TV: 7 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line: Timberwolves by 7
Tickets: $13-$4,146 on StubHub
Season Series: Tonight in Orlando; Feb. 3 in Minneapolis

OMD Prediction

The Orlando Magic’s homestand has given the team some hope and a mixed bag.

The team played its best basketball of the season and looked much more consistent to get wins over quality teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. But it looked lethargic and disorganized in losses to the lowly Houston Rockets and Charlotte Hornets (both on Mondays oddly).

So what does this last game have in store?

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a team that is still trying to figure itself out. The combination of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert has not exactly flourished. This team still has offensive explosion and defensive potential. But something remains off with the Timberwolves overall.

The Magic though have their own issues to deal with. Their margin for error remains very small and they still need to play focused to win.

Paolo Banchero is OUT with a sprained left ankle for the fourth straight game. Wendell Carter is a game-time decision with a right plantar fascia strain. It is hard to see the team winning with both Banchero and Carter out.

3 Keys To Watch

For Starters

The frustrating and surprising part of the Orlando Magic’s loss Monday to the Charlotte Hornets was the team’s poor performance from the starting group. Some of that was just the massive number of turnovers that they had — especially from Jalen Suggs and Bol Bol. But it was a lack of energy from a group that has played really well so far this season.

The Magic’s usual starting group of Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol and Wendell Carter has an overall net rating of -5.5 points per 100 possessions. The group with Terrence Ross instead of Jalen Suggs has a net rating of +43.8 points per 100 possessions in 36 minutes together. The group with Chuma Okeke starting for Paolo Banchero has a net rating of -4.1 points per 100 possessions.

The starting group has clearly slowed down some. Inserting Suggs into the lineup has not had the overall positive effect everyone hoped for. He is still growing as a player. But the Magic are still leaning heavily into the starting group to boost the team with the inconsistency off the bench.

The Minnesota Timberwolves seemingly have the opposite problem.

The Wolves’ typical starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert has a net rating of -6.2 points per 100 possessions with an offensive rating of 102.9 points per 100 possessions. This group just has not clicked quite yet and the offense is cratering with all the size on the floor.

Production in the paint

The Orlando Magic are very good at one thing offensively — getting into the paint and scoring there. This is not just a Paolo Banchero thing (although he helps a lot with it).

Orlando is currently 10th in the league with 51.4 points in the paint per game. Even without Banchero the last three games, the Magic are scoring 46.7 points in the paint per game. That is a sizable drop but still enough to keep the team afloat.

If you are looking for a reason the Orlando Magic actually lost the game Monday to the Charlotte Hornets, it was because of their poor performance in the paint. The Magic shot 20 for 44 in the paint for 40 points. Those misses led to run outs and fast break chances for the Hornets.

Minnesota is a dangerous team that can turn poor paint and rim decisions into fast break chances. For as big as the Timberwolves play, they like to run and push the pace. Minnesota, anchored with Rudy Gobert in the paint, still gives up 52.7 points in the paint per game (22nd in the league).

Much of what the Wolves do right now is still theoretical. So there is a chance to attack and get to the foul line to build the Magic’s opportunities to score.

The 3-point line

The Orlando Magic are still bucking one major trend in the NBA. But it is not necessarily a bad thing for the team.

Orlando’s offense has improved this year — it currently ranks 20th in the league which is an improvement considering where the team was at last year. And it has done this by attacking the paint and getting to the foul line. The team has that identity.

But a lot of fans are a bit frustrated with the team’s 3-point shooting. Orlando is 27th in 3-point attempts per game at 30.0 per game. With the team modernizing its offense, there is at least some call for the team to increase its volume.

But that is probably not the number to look at. The number to look at is conversions and quality. Orlando is 21st in the league making 34.3 percent of its 3-pointers. During this homestand, the Magic are making 39.3 percent of their 3-pointers (on just 28.0 attempts per game).

Similarly, the Magic are taking 20.1 of those attempts per game with the closest defender 4-6 feet away. That includes 13.1 attempts per game where the closest defender was six or more feet away at 38.8 percent shooting. During the homestand, the Magic are taking 20.2 attempts per game with the closest defender four or more feet away, including 13.2 per game with the closest defender six or more feet away.

The Magic have benefited from home cooking to supercharge their 3-point shooting. The volume of that shooting is less important than the quality and right now the percentage that those shots are going in.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.