Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks (Nov. 9, 2022): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction
The Orlando Magic get back to it with an early tip time to prepare for Tropical Storm Nicole as they finish their season series with the Dallas Mavericks.
Orlando Magic (2-9) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6-3)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line: Mavericks by 7
Tickets: $18-$2,395 on StubHub
Season Series: Mavericks 114, Magic 105 in Dallas on Oct. 30; Tonight in Orlando
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 94.9 | 116.6 | 110.5 | 55.8 | 29.5 | 14.9 | 34.5 |
| Orlando | 100.2 | 110.3 | 114.7 | 53.5 | 28.0 | 16.4 | 31.1 |
OMD Prediction
How do the Orlando Magic pick themselves up after this one? Their defense got obliterated in their loss to the Houston Rockets on Monday as the team seemingly gave away a chance to build confidence, instead transferring it over to another young team. That is really all it takes.
Orlando can feel some confidence with how the team’s offense is playing. It is moving the ball well and getting to the foul line. Both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are getting downhill, attacking and scoring. This is keeping the team alive.
The real trick of this game will be whether the Magic can reduce their mistakes and make Luka Doncic work. The Mavericks run everything through him and he torched the Magic in their first meeting. But the real difference was when the Magic decided to send double teams at him and he picked them apart to find shooters — especially Dorian Finney-Smith — in the fourth quarter.
This game will come down to the Magic’s mistakes — their turnovers and their defensive rotations — far more than anything else.
79. 108. 38. Prediction. 112
3 Keys To Watch
The turnover deal
It sounds like a broken record to say time and time again that the turnover battle is an essential aspect to watch when it comes to the Orlando Magic and their chances to win. But: The turnover battle is an essential aspect to watch when it comes to the Orlando Magic and their chances to win.
In the loss to the Houston Rockets on Monday, the Orlando Magic had 20 turnovers going for 31 points off turnovers. For the season, the Magic are committing 16.5 turnovers per game (26th in the league) for 21.7 points off turnovers per game, 27th in the league. This is a big reason why the Magic have struggled all season long.
In the loss to the Dallas Mavericks earlier this season, the Orlando Magic had 12 turnovers for 13 points. That was a game where the Magic were competitive into the fourth quarter. But in that fourth quarter, the team had four turnovers for five points. Those hurt at the moment and the Magic are still very much about limiting these mistakes. It is a good indicator of anything they do.
Usage rates
One of the big trends for both the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks is how quickly they have centered themselves around their stars and are leaning very heavily on them. Yes, we are about to put Paolo Banchero in the same breath as Luka Doncic. Obviously, they go to differing degrees.
Doncic has gotten off to an incredible start to the season, averaging a league-high 36.0 points per game with 8.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. he has scored 30 points in each game so far this season, breaking a Wilt Chamberlain record, which is always impressive. Doncic has a usage rate of 39.2 percent (his third straight year leading the league in usage rate).
The Mavericks run everything through Doncic and defending the Mavericks is very much about limiting his damage and picking how you want Doncic to try to beat you.
The Magic are getting their own high-usage player too though. Banchero is averaging 23.5 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game in his impressive start to his career. He has a usage rate of 30.0 percent.
The Magic have not had a player with a 30-percent usage rate since Nikola Vucevic in 2021. Only seven players have had a usage rate greater than 30 percent in team history (most are Tracy McGrady and Shaquille O’Neal). That is some elite company already.
3-Point defense
The big focus coming out of the Orlando Magic’s loss to the Houston Rockets was their 3-point defense. The Rockets made 24 3-pointers including nine in the first quarter. The Magic were just twisted and bent out of shape and then fell victim to a hot and confident team.
For the season, opponents are shooting 37.0 percent against the Magic on 3-pointers, 22nd in the league. There is always some 3-point luck involved. But there is a bit more to that. Opponents shoot 38.5 attempts per game from deep against the Magic, the third-most in the league. That is quite a bit of volume.
Orlando has to do a better job rotating out to the 3-point line and closing out to chase teams off the line. Giving up a long two or giving the team some time to realign and use their length to contest in the paint should be a big part of the defensive strategy.
Next. Jonathan Isaac a bonus for the Orlando Magic. dark
In fairness though, the Dallas Mavericks take 36.4 3-point attempts per game. The Mavericks will get their share of threes up. And whether they hit them and the Magic can keep up will be a big part of this game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.