The Orlando Magic finish their difficult road-heavy start to the schedule going up against the Oklahoma City Thunder and looking to scratch out an important win.
Orlando Magic (1-6) at Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3)
Time/TV: 8 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line: Thunder by 3
Tickets: $4-$692 on StubHub
Season Series: Tonight in Oklahoma City; Jan. 4 in Orlando
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando | 98.4 | 107.3 | 112.0 | 51.2 | 26.5 | 14.5 | 29.1 |
| Oklahoma City | 101.7 | 108.4 | 107.9 | 49.2 | 29.6 | 11.4 | 22.4 |
OMD Prediction
Let this game between the Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder serve as an example of how quickly young teams can have things click. The Thunder are just as young as the Magic and they have figured things out in the early season. The burst from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander that led him to win Western Conference Player of the Week last week is a big part of that, but Oklahoma City is clicking.
The Magic are decidedly not at 1-6. It still feels like they are knocking on the door of doing so. Their losses, for the most part, have come to poor fourth-quarter execution and composure. It is not about talent or skill. It is learning to win.
The Thunder will have their downswing just as the Magic will one day have their upswing. But this will be an interesting battle of styles and confidence. It should be an interesting examination of where these two young teams are at in comparison.
3 Keys To Watch
Drive to Survive
The Oklahoma City Thunder right now are driven by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The fifth-year pro is averaging 31.0 points per game and 7.0 assists per game on a 52.5-percent effective field goal percentage to start the season. He powered his to the Western Conference Player of the Week award last week and has the Thunder out to a surprising 3-3 start.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s driving ability is the big weapon so far this season. He averages a league-high 27.2 drives per game according to Second Spectrum (Luka Doncic is second) scoring 15.6 points per game off drives and 2.4 assists per game off drives. If the Magic wanted to gain a share of redemption after giving up 44 to Doncic on Sunday, this is a great opportunity.
It is also a big moment for their guards to take a major step forward too. Defensively, the Magic are giving up 35.2-percent of their shots within six feet. The team is four percentage points better than expected defending these shots, according to NBA.com.
That does not capture everything a drive can do. The team still struggles to stop initial penetration and fan back out to the 3-point line. Orlando gives up the fourth-most 3-point field goal attempts per game (37.0 per game) at 34.4 percent (14th in the league). The Magic give up 46.6 points in the paint per game, 11th in the league.
This game is going to come down to Orlando’s ability to defend and prevent these penetrating drives from Gilgeous-Alexander especially. The Thunder are not the offensive machine that the Dallas Mavericks are so they may not punish them as much for over-penetrating. But this game will be about living in the paint.
In Jalen’s Defense
To that point, the Orlando Magic could get a potentially significant boost with the return of Jalen Suggs. At the Magic’s 1:30 p.m. injury update, Suggs is listed as QUESTIONABLE as he continues to recover from a sprained left ankle. The upgrade in his status would certainly suggest he is likely to play depending on final checks before the game.
Suggs has played only two regular-season games, but his defensive impact is pretty clear. The Magic had a 103.4 defensive rating with Suggs on the floor this season.
Against the Hawks in the second game of the year, the Magic and Hawks were tied at 64 when Suggs went out with his injury in the third quarter. Atlanta proceeded to score the next six points and take control of the game. Orlando did battle back to take the lead by the end of the quarter. But Trae Young scored 18 of his 25 points and hit three of his four 3-pointers after Jalen Suggs left the game.
That is building off his incredible defense in his rookie year and why the Magic have been able to be more than patient as his shot continues to develop. Orlando has missed his perimeter defense a ton. And Suggs’ return will be a more than welcome one.
The impact of Bol
The question about whether the Orlando Magic reinsert Jalen Suggs back into the starting lineup to give them a more traditional look or not — or whether they should finish with him — is a question for pregame. Or perhaps when Suggs is fully recovered and back in the fold.
What should not be a question is the impact that Bol Bol is making and how he has become more than just a pleasant surprise. He has become an integral part of the team.
The Magic’s defensive rating with Suggs is very good. But Bol is not too far behind him. The Magic have an 103.8 defensive rating with Bol on the floor, showing the impact he makes as a rim protector.
It is also worth noting that starting lineup with Bol Bol lining up alongside Terrence Ross, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter and Paolo Banchero has a +47.7 net rating in 32 minutes with an 133.8 offensive rating and an 86.2 defensive rating.
It is still early, but this lineup is working. Teams are struggling to get dribble penetration and work through all the length they present. They have been on a string and have defended the 3-point line. They play with a frenetic speed that constantly throws teams off balance.
This is probably the idea the Magic are working toward. And for now, there does not seem to be a reason to go away from it until teams figure it out or this wave of energy wears off. Credit to Bolfor being able to step in and make things happen.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.