The clock is starting to tick for the Orlando Magic.
They have less than two weeks to go before the NBA Draft on June 23. And it is getting to be crunch time for their decision-making process.
Fans have patiently waited for word of when the top prospects would come through Orlando for those all-important interviews and potential workouts as the Magic try to suss out who they will take with the first pick.
The first of those critical interviews came Thursday when Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., the betting favorite to be the top pick, made his way to the Amway Center and met with the media. Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero are surely on their way too.
The Magic reportedly already had Iowa forward Keegan Murray in town. Perhaps Jaden Ivey and Shaedon Sharpe are on the way as the Magic do what everyone anticipates — and the Magic said they would — the team is casting a “wide net.”
It is an exciting time.
The clock is ticking closer and closer to the NBA Draft. With two weeks to go, we reset our Big Board for the Orlando Magic.
To this point, the Magic have worked quietly bringing in largely players they would consider for the second round or deeper in the draft. That is part of the process of filling out their draft profiles as they prepare for players to enter the league.
Still, it is all leading up to this week and the main prospects who are making their way through. And the Magic will then close themselves up again for their final considerations before they have to make their decision.
They will likely be doing — and redoing — the exercise I will be doing here.
Now that we have sat with some of the prospects and have a better sense of both what the Magic are looking for and what to make of these prospects, it is time to update our Big Board once again.
This is a ranking of the prospects according to how the Magic might view the prospects, taking into consideration both the talent at hand and the Magic’s needs.
Obviously there are still a few weeks to review tape. But we are in crunch time now as the countdown to the draft is truly on.
And the Magic will have to get their last bits of information to seriously answer the big question: Who goes No. 1?
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
Who goes No. 1?
The big question facing the Orlando Magic — the big question for this entire NBA Draft — is who will go No. 1?
There is a legitimate three-player race — although, to many, it is quickly becoming a two-man race (indeed, the Magic are expected to have Chet Holmgren in next week with no word yet when or whether Paolo Banchero will arrive in Orlando).
Trying to differentiate between the three prospects is a seemingly impossible task at the moment. No one is envying the position the Magic are in even though it comes with an incredible amount of power.
So why is Jabari Smith seemingly the top prospect at the moment?
It is a combination of a number of things.
The first place to start is his floor. Some want to use this as a detraction. No team should draft a player for what he is now or what his downside is.
But Smith’s downside is pretty good. He is a long and rangy defender with a strong 3-point shot. If that is all he is in the league, that will still be a high-level role player. It seems pretty certain that he will do at least that pretty quickly upon entering the league.
But that of course is just the starting point for him. And that is the part that is ultimately exciting about Smith and why he is projected as the top pick in the draft.
The rest of the equation is about what he can do and he should be able to do a lot.
Smith is already a pretty gifted shooter, but it is his ability to hit tough shots over defenses that has him slated to go No. 1. He punished smaller defenders on the block with killer turnaround jumpers. He has a step-back 3-pointer and can hit shots off the dribble.
The next steps for him — and what could be the difference between him being a star like Khris Middleton or a superstar like Jayson Tatum — is figuring out how to get to the basket and learning that star-like killer instinct.
By all indications, Smith wants to put in the work and has a bit of that killer confidence in him.
This is why he is ultimately the top guy on everyone’s board.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
The First Tier-B
There are still plenty of people who are firm of the belief the Orlando Magic should draft Chet Holmgren with the first pick in the draft — the same with Paolo Banchero. They all have good reasons to go No. 1. No one is wrong in arguing what they want to argue. The distinctions between these players are really small.
Holmgren should get the nod at No. 2 because of his potential to be a supremely different player than a lot of others in the league. And that counts for something.
Holmgren was a killer shot blocker and defensive player at Gonzaga. That is where he had a lot of his focus. His block rate is near the levels of some of the elite shot-blockers who entered the NBA.
That is the place where Holmgren will start. What will be interesting to see is how his offense grows and expands.
In high school, Holmgren had an array of dribble moves to go with incredible outside shooting for a 7-footer. He put these on display at times at Gonzaga but not on full display by any means. Holmgren has a lot of guard skills for a player his size.
The questions about his frame and weight are certainly legitimate and fair to ask. He has done all he can to overcome them at this point.
Holmgren though is something unique. There are not many big men who can play the way he plays. And if all those various skills come together, then the team that drafts Holmgren has a true unicorn. And someone incredibly unique in this league.
The last time we did this Big Board exercise I had Paolo Banchero as my No. 1 guy. This fall is not necessarily about Banchero himself, but more about watching tape on the other players and thinking about what kind of team the Magic want to be.
Banchero might be the rookie who makes the most immediate impact in the league. He is most capable of scoring at an NBA level as a rookie. And there is a lot of enticement in drafting him because of his ability to go get buckets.
No one would begrudge that. The Magic desperately need that kind of a scorer — someone they can just get the ball to and let him loose. He is a great player around the basket in the post and mid-post. His 3-point shot is improving. And his passing and defense are underrated, even if they looked like weaknesses in college.
Banchero though feels like the most limiting of the top prospects. And that is why he ultimately falls to No. 3.
If he is not the top guy on the floor, what else is he going to provide? This lack of role versatility is ultimately why Banchero settles in at No. 3. If the Orlando Magic (or anyone else) believe he is the leading scorer to lead the team to the promised land, they should take him and not think twice about it.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
The Next Tier
There are some interesting players in the next tier of prospects. But there are probably too many questions for them to overcome to become one of the top guys in this draft.
For now, Keegan Murray is probably the most complete of these prospects.
He is a solid defender — although not at the same level as Jabari Smith. He is a great 3-point shooter — although, again, not at the same level as Smith. He has great size for the versatility of the modern NBA.
I would think of Murray as a high-level role player. He would be most successful if he is used like the Phoenix Suns use Mikal Bridges. They do not rely on his scoring or creation — Murray is really good beating up on smaller defenders in the post too — but they need him as a floor spacer, defender and shooter.
Murray will play a key role when he enters the league and should help whoever drafts him to win.
There is a lot to like about Shaedon Sharpe.
He has all the size and scoring ability everyone wants to see from a guard. There is a reason he was the top prospect in the class of 2022 before reclassifying to try to play a year early.
That is the only hang up about him at the moment. He has not played in a year and a half since Kentucky decided to hold him out with the uncertainty over his NCAA eligibility.
Sharpe well could be the best player in this class. But no one has seen him play for so long and there is no proof of what he can do at the next level. All we have is his high school tape.
What that shows is a player who has NBA range and can get shots wherever he wants. He is explosive jumping off two feet and has the size to work around the basket.
Whether that will translate to the NBA remains a huge question mark.
Jaden Ivey and Shaedon Sharpe both have the potential for stardom. That much is abundantly clear. Jaden Ivey has drawn some comparisons to Ja Morant with his size and ability to finish with force at the rim.
Ivey has a lot of those attributes and is the kind of dominant guard that teams like to build around. There is a lot to like about him.
But there are plenty of reasons to be concerned too. He struggles to finish at the rim consistently beyond his highlight-inducing dunks.
His other point guard skills are also pretty lacking. Ivey had a low assistant number and was an inconsistent shooter.
For me, something does not fit my eye with Ivey, even if I acknowledge his talent and potential.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
The rest of the Lottery
Bennedict Mathurin is an intriguing prospect who has shown a good scoring burst. The question he faces is whether he can do it on a consistent basis. Teams that draft him know they will get a solid defender and a player with good size. But he will have to continue evolving and developing his talent.
A.J. Griffin is an interesting prospect in that he does so many things so well. He is a decent shooter and a good defender. He has good size to make his way through the league. It is just hard to see him being more than a role player. The skills to create and be a bigger player just are not there.
Jalen Duren is the best pure center prospect in this draft. He looks and plays like energy big men like Montrezl Harrell or Robert Williams (not nearly as good as Williams). Duren is going to be active around the basket and a be a tough body to move in the post and in the paint. His offensive skills are still very limited.
Dyson Daniels has emerged as the best player among the G-League Ignite players. He averaged 11.9 points per game and shot 45.9-percent from the floor and 34.7-percent. There is a lot to like about his game and his potential to be a dynamic player. But this was overall an unimpressive G-League Ignite class (save for Scoot Henderson, who is eligible for next year’s draft).
Malaki Branham might be the best shooter in this draft outside the top players. He has good size for a guard and should be able to come around screens or work as a spot-up option for whoever ends up drafting him.
Johnny Davis was at one point considered a surefire Lottery pick and perhaps a top-10 pick, if not something more. He was a solid scorer who could create his own shot off the dribble and score efficiently from the mid-range. Then everything fell off in January and February and Davis never really recovered. His lack of outside shooting dims his prospects.
No player likely helped his stock more at the NBA Draft Combine just for showing up than Mark Williams. Williams had some incredible measurements at the Draft Combine and looks like the longest player in this year’s draft class. Williams is a solid defender and good shot block who will clean up a fair amount of mistakes and put down his share of lobs.
Jeremy Sochan has been the big climber among the top prospects. But he will drop down here. Sochan has the size and versatility on defense that everyone is looking for. Coming from Baylor, everyone knows he can defend. He has to round his offensive game to be more than an athletic wing.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
Too high to trade up
Ousmane Dieng seems to be all over the place when it comes to draft evaluations. Some, like me, have him potentially going just outside the Lottery. Others have him going in the 20s.
That is the kind of talent that could be a good guy to target if the Orlando Magic are looking to trade up. And Ousmane Dieng certainly fits the type the Magic go for.
Dieng is a big forward who plays a lot like a point guard. He has good passing ability and great athleticism finishing at the rim.
Dieng’s uneven season is likely why there is so much divergence in his evaluation. His strong finish to the season everyone hopes is a sign of what he can be. But it is hard to remember he is still tremendously young.
Ochai Agbaji was the Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament and is a solid player in almost every facet. He will not stand out at any one thing, however.
Aside from Mark Williams, Santa Clara guard Jalen Williams helped himself out a ton at the NBA Draft Combine. His measurements were the first thing that got big notice at the Combine. Guards of his size are hard to find. And they have a ton of value.
Williams was a pretty good scorer at Santa Clara. And he probably fits more as a shooting guard. His sudden rise in 3-point shooting will be a big selling point and something he has to continue to back up.
But Williams looks like he will be the big riser in this draft process.
Nikola Jovic is as interesting of a prospect as there is in this draft.
He is a 6-foot-10 playmaking forward who is strong shooting from the outside and keeping an offense moving. He is a solid shooter — still improving from three — and is smart of the dribble. Especially for a player of his size.
His big issue is his generally poor defense. Most scouts consider him a negative on defense. That is a tough place for any prospect to start. As natural as his offense looks, his lack of lateral quickness or awareness on defense is really puzzling.
Tari Eason, like so many players in this Draft, could go just about anywhere. Although it feels like the interest in him has cooled since the Combine.
Eason is a versatile defensive forward. He has good athleticism and could be a good finisher around the basket. But his offensive skills are still very raw. And that is probably why he will likely settle in the teens or early 20s for the draft.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
More Trade-Up Options
TyTy Washington is an interesting athletic guard who showed good burst. He is not much of a shooter and his point guard and playmaking skills could use some improvement too. For that reason Washington is likely a mystery to figure out what to do with him for the draft despite his potential.
There is a lot to like about Duke’s Trevor Keels.
Keels has good size and good defensive presence coming from Duke. He was a key glue player for the Blue Devils. And he should slot in for a similar role in the NBA. So there is a sign that he could be successful doing the same in the NBA.
The trick for him will be his shooting. Keels is a good shooter, but there was a bit of a boom-or-bust quality to his shooting at Duke. If he was hot, the Blue Devils became pretty much unstoppable. If he struggled, the Blue Devils had to make up for it and hope things turned for him.
Jake LaRavia is going to be an interesting prospect entering this NBA Draft.
LaRavia is something of an undersized forward who is tough and plays with a ton of energy. That energy makes up for any shortcomings he has. But he still has some skill, able to hit from three a bit. Those parts of his game will have to round into form.
But LaRavia is the kind of guy who works his way into a rotation and is hard to keep off the floor because of the energy he provides.
Some people believe Bryce McGowens has Lottery talent. Plain and simple. His scoring numbers — 16.8 points per game — certainly back that up. McGowens was a dynamic scorer at Nebraska.
McGowens though was fairly inefficient in scoring all those points — 40.3-percent from the floor and 27.4-percent from beyond the arc. Maybe another year in college would have helped round that part of his game out to impress NBA scouts. Perhaps not.
And so the question for McGowens is how he rounds out his game moving forward. But there is still a lot of talent that will be tough to pass.
Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 3.0
The rest of the First Round
Dalen Terry was also a big riser thanks to his Combine showing. Terry averaged 8.0 points per game and 3.9 assists per game. He shot 50.2-percent from the floor and 36.4-percent from beyond the arc during his sophomore season at Arizona.
Terry is a 6-foot-7 guard and has played at sort of a smaller scale for the Wildcats. The question is how much can he scale up or is he just going to be an energy guard off the bench. But the All-Pac-12 Defensive Team player is someone that will find his way.
Jaylin Williams is a bit undersized as a center, but he is a big energy guy and someone who is going to boost whatever team he is on. He was one of the national leaders in charges and was able to give Chet Holmgren trouble with the amount of pressure he put on the rim and his relentlessness on both ends.
Watching Robert Williams be such a key for the Boston Celtics should help boost his stock as Jaylin Williams would provide a lot of the same qualities.
Williams would still have to expand his offensive game to help take that next step. And he is a bit undersized as a center.
E.J. Liddell is an All-Big Ten Defensive Team player who averaged 19.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. He showed some good range too, hitting 37.4-percent from beyond the arc, a nice rise year to year for the junior. At 6-foot-7, he may be a bit undersized to play power forward unless that 3-point shot becomes more consistent.
Christian Braun is just an overall solid prospect from the Kansas Jayhawks. Baun averaged 14.1 points per game and 6.5 rebounds per game. He shot 83.6-percent from deep and that will be a good growing point for him as he moves to the NBA. He reportedly already worked out for the Orlando Magic.
A lot of people are pretty high on Kennedy Chandler, especially after his strong finish to the season that included winning SEC Tournament Most Outstanding Player. Chandler though is a bundle of inconsistency. He will drop a big game with dazzling drives to the basket one game and then throw up a clunker because of his poor shooting the next.
Wendell Moore Jr. is sort of a lesser version of Trevor Keels — which is one of the amazing things about that Duke team. Moore is more of a stopper on that front. He is a good defender with a more inconsistent 3-point shot.
Jaden Hardy was once considered a surefire prospect and someone who would continue the success of the G-League Ignite. Instead, that experience seems to have exposed him some. The talent is all still there though. He can attack the basket well and finish. But everything else about his game was inconsistent at the G-League level.
Like Jaden Hardy, Patrick Baldwin Jr. was considered a can’t-miss prospect at the start of the season. But his year at UW-Milwaukee was a complete disaster. He struggled in all phases before injury and COVID ended his season. Baldwin did not help himself at the Combine. He measured well, but did not measure well athletically and did not participate in 5-on-5 drills.
Blake Wesley was a great scorer at Notre Dame. But he struggled with his outside shot (a common refrain from guards in this year’s draft class). His success likely depends on whether he can hit from the outside consistently.
MarJon Beauchamp is an intriguing prospect because of his athleticism and ability to finish around the basket. The outside shooting was a problem in the G-League and will be the big question for his ultimate fit in the NBA.
Christian Koloko was one of the best shot blockers in college basketball last year and was a defensive stopper for this good Arizona team. Koloko is very raw offensively. But if he can hold his own in the paint and add rim protection, he will find a role off the bench.
David Roddy is a unique prospect at the forward spot. He is a bit undersized for the spot and is still improving as a 3-point shooter. But he has made great strides there. His ability to attack the paint and hit line drives to the basket will serve him well and could allow him to fill a role moving forward. His key will be whether he can defend the perimeter.