The Orlando Magic’s season is officially over.
The team knew it would be a rebuilding adventure this year and played like it, finishing with a 22-60 record and the second-worst record in the league. Somehow though, it did not feel that way at times.
Sure, the losses piled up. But the team spent its season focusing on development and improvement throughout the course of the season. They were never focused on the team’s record or the results. They said as much.
Of course, that might be a coping mechanism to get through what everyone understood and knew would be a rough season. If they viewed the season in terms of wins and losses this year, they would lose out on the development that came and probably lose figuring out which players they should really build around.
The Orlando Magic spent their season growing and building a foundation. This offseason though presents several questions that will help the team push forward or hold them back.
That does not mean the Magic were not focused on the long-term. They were trying to build their foundation and build their ideas for what this team will look like moving forward. They always said they had an eye on the bigger picture.
To the team’s credit, even facing all the losses, they still did the work and still seemed to buy into this larger vision. There was always something exciting or interesting going on with this team, even if they struggled to tie the whole thing together.
Creating that bigger picture is now the task with the season over.
With the players going their separate ways in the offseason, the focus turns to independent individual development outside of the team context and confines before everyone reconvenes in September. It also turns to Jeff Weltman and his staff in how they prepare for what might be a second straight top-five pick and have cap room to spend carefully to build the team.
They are promising to be patient and nurture this young group. The Magic are not going to rush their rebuild it would seem, having faith in their young players to develop and waiting for the right time to pounce.
There is still plenty to do and plenty to watch this offseason. The Magic should not be back at the bottom of the standings next year. And everyone knows they will need to take those next steps.
Setting expectations for the 2023 season will come in the months ahead. With the season freshly finished, the Magic will turn their focus to the storylines that will define their summer. Those are the immediate next steps for the franchise.
5 Orlando Magic offseason storylines
The Draft
When you finish at the bottom of the standings, the NBA Draft becomes the defining event of your offseason. And the Orlando Magic once again have aligned themselves to have a big draft night and use that as a catapult for the team’s rebuild.
Orlando finished with the second-worst record in the league, guaranteeing the team at least a top-six pick. The Magic will have a 14-percent chance to win the first pick and a 52.1-percent chance to win a top-four pick. Orlando still has a 20.0-percent chance of landing sixth.
That is the risk of the current Lottery system.
Orlando is betting they will win a coin flip to get one of the top picks. But the Magic, despite having one of the worst overall records in the league the last decade, have not moved up in the Draft Lottery since 1993 and have not won a pick determined by the Lottery since selecting Victor Oladipo second in 2013.
A lot is riding on the draft. No matter where Orlando ultimately lands on Draft Lottery night on May 17, the team needs to get the draft right. The Magic need to add not only a quality player, but they need a high-level player too.
If the Magic want to move forward in the way they likely imagine, that means getting a player who can make a clear impact on this team’s trajectory.
Orlando will have to wait to see where the team lands. And the team will have to sort its board of prospects the team likes — the easy money is in some order Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey, Keegan Murray and Shaedon Sharpe.
Magic fans should feel fairly comfortable with any of those six players to varying degrees — they all have their flaws and advantages — and there are a few players who could sneak their way into that group.
But the draft will be the biggest piece of this offseason and the biggest player the team adds this offseason.
5 Orlando Magic offseason storylines
The Mo Bamba question
The Orlando Magic do not have a ton of free agency questions to answer. And some of the bigger ones will likely be out of their control.
The Gary Harris question is one that is certainly independent of anything else and rests solely with him and whether he wants to hang around a rebuilding team.
The bigger question for a young team is what do they do with one of their young players. And, in this instance, the Magic do have a choice with Mo Bamba as he enters restricted free agency.
Bamba had a breakout year as he got consistent playing time and a starter’s role for the first time in his career. He averaged a career-high 10.6 points per game, 8.1 rebounds per game and 1.7 blocks per game. More minutes will do that.
So too will the confidence that comes with playing those kinds of minutes.
But the question hanging over Bamba the entire season was whether he would return to the team this offseason and just how much he is worth. And his season has not made any answers clearer.
To Bamba’s credit, he said after Sunday’s game he wants to stay with the team. He has talked all year about his personal excitement of returning to the team and seeing what this group is building. Bamba spent the whole season talking about the Magic in the present tense with very little qualifications.
But this is business. And, as Bamba said after Sunday’s game, he is going to have to let things take care of themselves.
That might well mean Bamba is playing elsewhere next season. But it feels just as likely Bamba could return to the team too. It is anybody’s guess.
Not a lot of teams have money this offseason. It is not a great market for restricted free agents. Unless Bamba settles for the mid-level exception — roughly capped at $9.3 million — it is hard to see him making more than his $10.1 million qualifying offer.
That might make it better for him to take the qualifying offer and kick his free agency down the road another year — getting a second prove-it year.
Then again, the playing time Bamba got this season might get squeezed by the drafting of another forward or a similar shot-blocking, 3-point-shooting big. Bamba’s time might well have run out one way or the other.
That does not make the Magic’s choice in whether to bring back Bamba and for how much any easier.
5 Orlando Magic offseason storylines
Free Agency Choices
This year’s free-agent class is not expected to create much buzz. The best free agents are James Harden, Zach LaVine and Deandre Ayton. All three are expected to stay in their respective cities. Perhaps there is some rumbling that LaVine could leave after the Chicago Bulls’ struggles to end the season. But it may not be a big summer of free agent moving.
Trades will be a different story. And that is probably where the rest of the league and the Magic will act.
Still, Orlando is one of the few teams expected to have cap room this summer. The Magic could be a team that throws some money around — perhaps forcing the Charlotte Hornets to think about matching a big offer on Miles Bridges or the Phoenix Suns to pony up for Deandre Ayton.
Those are all pie in the sky ideas. But Orlando could be in play to make major moves like that if the team wants.
The Magic currently have roughly $81.2 million in guaranteed salary for next year. This does not include Devin Cannady and Moe Wagner’s non-guaranteed amounts for next season, cap holds for Gary Harris and Mo Bamba and the upcoming draft pick.
If the Magic pick second next year, that would cost them another $7.5 million.
The salary cap next year is projected to fall at $122 million. That gives Orlando somewhere in the neighborhood of $33.3 million before dealing with the team’s own free agents. That part will add some complications. But it is easy to see how much room the team has to play with.
What the Magic do with all that money is the real question then.
Do they spend some of it to retain Gary Harris? The Magic could offer the bulk of that room to him in a front-loaded deal to keep him around.
Do they spend some of it to keep Mo Bamba? Bamba has a cap hold of more than $20-million. If the Magic want to keep Bamba, they will have to deal with him first — or have his contract agreed to first before moving forward with anything else to make the cap mechanics work.
Do the Magic use their cap space as a rental to acquire other players they want or draft capital? The Magic could act as a facilitator in larger trades stealing assets they want to grab in exchange for taking on bad contracts.
This part of the rebuild is sometimes messy. But smart teams are able to mine players who can help young teams in the process.
Orlando has to spend some of its cap room this offseason. The team cannot just sit on it. The Magic have to do something with it.
This will not be a quiet offseason.
5 Orlando Magic offseason storylines
Summer League Progress
The next time we see the Orlando Magic on the floor will be in July for Summer League.
Every young team cares a ton about Summer League because it is at least the first public showing of their draft picks and second-year players. It is a check-up on how they are developing and where their individual improvement is at.
What happens in Summer League games are probably more important to fans than to the coaching staff. The Magic may end up treating the training camp and practices as more important in their study of whomever they draft.
But this is not just about who the Magic draft and seeing them put on an Orlando uniform and work with the coaching staff for the first time. That will be big. But rookies are rookies.
Summer League in July will be a big proving ground for second-year players. Especially for Jalen Suggs, who struggled so much during his rookie year.
Suggs was not the future All-Star guard everyone hoped for during his rookie year. He averaged 11.8 points per game and 4.4 assists per game. But he shot only 36.1-percent from the floor and 21.4-percent from beyond the arc.
He already proved himself a capable defender. And he did a fantastic job attacking the basket. He just could not finish.
Everyone suspects Suggs will improve with more experience and more comfort on the floor. The Magic are just waiting for the game to slow down for him.
Summer League will be a big proving ground. The best second-year players dominate at Summer League because they are significantly more comfortable playing at the NBA’s speed.
The Magic can expect Franz Wagner to play at a higher level. They need Suggs to join him and play well at Summer League. A lot of eyes will be on Suggs to see if he has taken those steps.
And that will be a big question when Summer League arrives.
5 Orlando Magic offseason storylines
Jonathan Isaac’s recovery
The biggest story entering the Orlando Magic’s 2022 season was Jonathan Isaac’s health.
At least at that point of the season, Isaac was seemingly the only player with an elite skill he could put on the floor. It seemed like seeing him return from a torn ACL was essential to the team’s foundation. They needed to know who Isaac still was and how he fit into the bigger plans the team had in store.
That obviously did not happen. Isaac missed the entire 2022 season, his second straight on the shelf after tearing his ACL in August 2020. He even needed a surgical procedure on his hamstring just about a month ago that officially shut him down the rest of the season.
The lack of updates and the length of Isaac’s recovery have only added to the frustration among fans.
Isaac can only go as fast as his body lets him recover. As frustrating as that reality is.
The pressure though is now clearly on. Franz Wagner plays the same position and the players at the top of this draft also play the same forward position. Isaac has gone from a clear part of this team’s future and perhaps a core piece to someone who has a lot to prove as he recovers from his injury.
Isaac’s place on the team is not so guaranteed anymore. Isaac has a lot to prove when he gets back on the floor.
That question is still when. It might verge on if.
Orlando is not likely to give many updates on Isaac’s recovery. It is not like the team has to this point.
The Magic may have him practice with the team at Summer League if he is ready. But that likely would not be super public. The next word we hear on Isaac might be an update a few weeks before training camp announcing he is fully cleared — much the same way the team eased the pressure off Markelle Fultz before his return.
But with Isaac not playing at all during the 2022 season. The question carries over now as the team waits for him to return.