With the NBA season drawing to a close and the Orlando Magic out of playoff contention, attention has started to turn toward the draft.
The NCAA tournament has given us a closer look at the top prospects in this year’s draft. Having had years of no luck in the lottery and missing out on Cade Cunningham or Evan Mobley last year, the Magic are hoping this year will be different.
The Orlando Magic appear keenly focused on the NBA Draft and the possibility of adding a starring player through the draft. How they fit will be a key determinant for their success.
It would certainly be a good year to get a top pick. There are plenty of exciting prospects that could turn around the franchise’s fortunes. But among all of them, there are three standout big men that the team will be hoping to land above everyone else.
And should Orlando finally get some luck in the lottery, here is how each of the three might fit in on this current roster:
Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen: Thurs. vs. Arkansas (7:09 p.m.)
Chet Holmgren’s name has been in NBA circles for a long time. The 20-year-old 7-footer chose to play his college year at Gonzaga and has certainly shown glimpses of why he is regarded so highly.
The word “unicorn” has become commonly used in the NBA but Holmgren is just that, there really is no one else like him. This makes it even harder to evaluate him.
Despite standing at 7 feet tall, Holmgren weighs just 195 pounds. There are doubts that his skinny frame would be a problem in the professional game and his polarising performances in college have done little to quell concerns over his game.
But Holmgren at his best is a superb shot blocker who can also defend the perimeter. He is a good finisher inside and can also space the floor with his ability to knock down threes, while he is also able to handle the ball and create for others. His skill set is versatile and very unusual for someone of his size.
The Magic have not had much luck with drafting big men in recent years. Mo Bamba’s development was slowed by a mix of injury, illness and a reluctant coach. Bamba has yet to truly convince that he can be a starting center on a good NBA team. Jonathan Isaac, meanwhile, has been hurt for much of his career.
Bamba’s future is unclear as he enters unrestricted free agency this offseason. But if he is still on the Magic next year, Chet Holmgren would join a roster of him, Jonathan Isaac, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter. Bol Bol could also come into Jamahl Mosley’s thinking (Bol is also set for restricted free agency this offseason).
Clearly, it would be tough to play all of these big men together. The team would have to make some tough decisions. Clearly, Holmgren would need plenty of time on the court to develop.
His arrival would likely impact Bamba the most, and it might spell the end of his frustrating time on the Magic. But given the make-up of the roster, Holmgren would likely have to play with another, possibly two, big men.
With his size and shot-blocking ability, Holmgren profiles as a center. That might be his best position in the future when he, hopefully, is able to add muscle to better deal with the bigger centers.
But his perimeter skills and versatility mean he could also play as more of a 4. However, in today’s game of positionless basketball, Holmgren might not even need to be boxed into a certain position.
This year has seen Bamba largely start at the center spot with Carter at the 4, but this has been quite switchable. There have been times where Carter has gone inside with Bamba spacing the floor on offense, and the Magic could run a similar scheme with Holmgren in Bamba’s place next year.
Playing him alongside Carter would provide the team with someone who has shown he can defend bigger centers if needed, while Holmgren could adopt more of a free role on defense where he can use his length and high IQ to disrupt opposing offenses and read plays to get blocks. A bit like Evan Mobley on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
And on offense, the duo could be very switchable. There would be times when Holmgren could go inside to use his finishing ability and Carter can space the floor as he has done so well this year, and vice versa. Holmgren’s shooting ability means he has to be respected and could help the team’s talented young guards to thrive.
With Holmgren’s ability to handle the ball, there is even the opportunity for him to run pick and roll as the ball-handler and create plays.
Holmgren’s arrival would provide a real headache for the team. Stepping into Bamba’s role would make the most sense in the short term. But with Isaac and his elite defensive potential also returning next year, he will need game time too. And Wagner will only continue to improve and demand his time and space on the floor too.
Even early on in the rebuild, a draft pick of this magnitude will have massive repercussions on the team’s ultimate rebuilding plan.
It is tough to see a situation where the Magic play a forward lineup of Isaac, Holmgren and Carter given the offensive limitations, and Wagner certainly deserves to keep his place in the starting five. Someone would have to miss out.
How the 2022 top Draft prospects fit the Orlando Magic
Jabari Smith, Jr., Auburn
For a while now the Orlando Magic have lacked reliable shooters but Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. would certainly address that. He has shot 42-percent from three this year and has also proven effective from mid-range too.
The big appeal with Smith is his jump shot. At 6-foot-10, it is pretty much unblockable and he has demonstrated a wide arsenal of shots. He can hit pull-up threes, fadeaways in the mid-range and shots off the dribble. There is so much to like about him.
He can also defend too. At his size, that is a massive weapon to have, and fits with exactly what the Magic are trying to do.
But Auburn’s recent defeat to Miami will cause a lot of concern. Smith shot just 18.8-percent from the field and 12.5-percent from three while scoring 10 points in the Tigers’ shocking loss. It might just have been one off night, but it will certainly give teams more doubt over whether to select him.
One of the few criticisms of Smith’s game at Auburn was how he deferred to older teammates and did not always take over games when Auburn needed the lift from its star player.
On the whole though, it is tough to see Smith not having a really positive impact in the NBA. His clear shooting ability from all over the court is going to mean he can score, and while he still has to improve his handle and work on getting into the paint, he looks like one of the safer bets to be at least a good player, possibly more.
He is the type of player a team could plugin quite easily. The Magic could put him in at the 4-spot next season alongside Wendell Carter at center and with Franz Wagner at the three, the team would have plenty of size and defensive ability on the perimeter.
The Magic could use him in a more limited starting role at first to allow him to get up to speed, whereby he primarily focuses on using his 3-point shooting ability off the catch with plays that focus on getting him open looks. Over time, he could then get more opportunities to handle the ball and create his own shot as he has shown he can do this season.
There is also the option of bringing him off the bench if the Magic feel he will benefit more from that at first. But with his ability, he certainly could provide an obvious fix to some of the team’s glaring weaknesses so starting him makes sense.
Further down the line once Jonathan Isaac is ready to start again, the decision over which of Isaac, Franz Wagner or Jabari Smith drops to the bench would be a difficult one but should Smith develop into a go-to scorer, his game would make it easier to play any combination of the three than perhaps Holmgren would.
To be sure, these are good problems to have at this stage of the rebuild.
How the 2022 top Draft prospects fit the Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero, Duke
NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen: Thurs. vs. Texas Tech (9:39 p.m.)
Paolo Banchero has all the tools to be a star in the NBA. His size and strength at just 19 are staggering, and he has the versatile offensive game to hurt teams in different ways.
At the moment, he is most adept at taking the ball inside to post up and at using his speed to blow past opposition players and finish. He is a really good ball-handler and has shown he can knock down mid-range shots off the dribble and from three. But he still has a ways to go before he can be considered proficient from the perimeter.
Out of the top three prospects, Banchero arguably makes the most sense when you look at this current Orlando Magic team. He probably has the highest upside of anyone in the draft and Orlando needs a star to take things forward and his go-to scoring potential could provide just that.
The defensive potential is there, but he certainly is not as big of a defensive prospect as the other two names on this list. His skills are focused much more toward the other end of the court.
The current flaws in his game — shot selection, inconsistent shooting, defense — are all typical of guys his age. It suggests the Duke forward is still developing and he has really impressed in the NCAA Tournament so far, including scoring 19 against Michigan State on Sunday.
Like the other two names on this list, Banchero is versatile. His size suggests he is probably more of a 4 but he could quite easily play at the 3-spot instead, like Franz Wagner.
If the Magic draft Paolo Banchero, pairing him as a forward duo with Franz Wagner alongside a center, probably Wendell Carter, would make sense. The two forwards’ size, versatility and offensive creation- is an intriguing prospect given the team still desperately lacks shot creation — it does not hugely matter who is the 3 or the 4 given the way the game is played nowadays.
Given Wagner and Banchero both like the ball in their hands to create, there might be an issue with who gets more opportunity to do so but that should not really be too much of a concern given how much the team struggles on offense. Having more firepower should be the main priority.
Orlando would have to get the ball into Banchero’s hands in his rookie year to let him show what he can do. Others would have to sacrifice so he could run isolation plays, while using him as a roller to the basket also makes sense as a focus given his supreme athletic ability and his threat from alley-oops.
Wagner is also smart off-ball as a cutter and so can be effective in different ways. The two might not provide consistent shooting from three in the early stages but over time, hopefully they would do.
Banchero’s arrival, should he develop as is hoped, would put a lot of pressure on Isaac to get better on offense. It might be that if Isaac cannot iron out his offensive flaws his role becomes one off the bench. But if he can improve and his defense remains elite, then it could become a fight between Wagner and Banchero for that other starting spot.