The Orlando Magic seem to subscribe to the theory that a team should play its five best players more often than not.
There is certainly something to that, of course. At the end of the day, the team wants to get its best players on the floor and they should be able to find a way to work together.
For the Magic this season (at least so far), those five best players have included some redundancy. Or, at least, what appears to be redundancy.
The Magic surprised a lot of observers by starting Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba together. They have seemingly wanted to continue this “two-big” alignment, starting Wendell Carter alongside Robin Lopez in Friday’s game. Only, it seems, did Carter’s injury and the lack of available players who can play center move the Magic to what feels like the more modern stretch-4 play.
What has been most interesting about this group is that despite that size, the Magic are not a good low-post team. Both Carter and Bamba are not frequent post-up players.
The Orlando Magic are one of the few teams deploying the twin towers lineup. But the team has struggled to get post-ups and the traditional indicators from big men.
It creates a bit of a contradiction: Orlando is going big when the rest of the league is going small, and seems determined to do so, but they are not hunting mismatches in the post. This is still a modern attack that tries to spread the floor.
Perhaps this is all a sign of the Magic’s impending switch to a more traditional stretch-4 lineup when Jonathan Isaac returns. That will happen at some point. And Chuma Okeke’s struggles have likely delayed any plans to use more of these versatile forward lineups the Magic seem set up to play.
Indeed, of the Magic’s eight starting lineups so far this season, only two of them did not include two of Mo Bamba, Robin Lopez, Wendell Carter or Moritz Wagner. And both of those lineups were the last two games.
The Magic have had surprising success with this lineup. In a league that has trended smaller, pairing Carter with Bamba has worked. At least comparatively.
The Magic’s original starting lineup with Jalen Suggs still ranks ninth among lineups with at least 100 minutes on the floor together with a +11.4 net rating (105.6 offensive rating and 94.1 defensive rating).
Lineups with Bamba and Carter on the floor together post a -6.6 net rating (101.7 offensive rating and 108.3 defensive rating). It is not like the duo is working. And certainly, the team’s offense in both those lineups have left something wanting.
While there has been some success, everyone senses the inevitable breakup is coming. And the lack of ability to get into the paint may well be part of it.
The Magic as a team this year averaged 4.2 post-up possessions per game, according to NBA.com’s tracking data. That is the 13th fewest in the league. The team averages 0.89 points per 100 possessions on their post-ups (14th fewest in the league). Orlando shoots 50.0-percent on post-ups overall.
In essence, despite playing these bigger lineups, the Magic are the middle of the league in both the number of times they post up per game and their efficiency in doing so. It is not surprising to see low-efficiency numbers there because post-ups, like most isolation plays, are largely inefficient plays.
But for a Magic team that struggles to score, it would be advantageous to have a guy the team can dump the ball into and get easy buckets.
That is not how the Magic use either of their centers. It is somewhat counterintuitive, especially for long-time watchers of the NBA who remember the low-post mastery of big men from decades past.
According to NBA.com’s tracking data, no one outside of Robin Lopez really has any kind of post-up possessions.
Carter posts up for only 0.9 possessions per game and averages only 0.89 points per possession on his post-ups. He shoots 45.5-percent on his post-ups.
Carter does not post up enough to have any kind of consistency to develop any trends. But according to Basketball Index, Carter scores 0.1 points per 75 possessions more than expected from his post-up opportunities.
That would suggest that when the Magic get him down low, he makes the most of his possessions and ultimately helps his team. Even if that is not to score or go into a whirlwind of moves.
This is not a call to put Carter on the block more. That may not be his game at all.
Carter has proven very effective in the high post as a fulcrum for the offense. The Magic love using him in horns sets or running off him for dribble handoffs or to set up high pick and rolls. Carter is very good as a screener and especially getting better at popping to the perimeter.
Carter likely feels more comfortable in this high post area where he can target passers and hit shots from the perimeter.
Part of this is likely because of Carter’s role as the nominal power forward alongside Bamba for most of his minutes. According to Basketball-Reference, Carter has played 70-percent of his minutes at power forward.
Carter posted up a lot more last year — 1.5 possessions per game for 0.59 points per possession with the Magic last season. He had a negative post-impact last season according to Basketball Index.
Bamba’s post-up numbers are even starker despite his size.
According to NBA.com’s tracking stats, Bamba posts up slightly more at 1.0 possession per game, scoring 0.77 points per possession on his post-ups. He shoots 45.0-percent from the floor on his post-ups.
Bamba averages only 6.6 paint touches per 75 possessions, according to Basketball Index. That is still in the 77th percentile in the league, but a low number for a center.
He has at least doubled his post touches and opportunities. But he is still largely a pop option going to the perimeter rather than someone going to the basket.
Bamba certainly does not have the physical base to be a post-up option. And getting him down low would likely lead to him getting jostled off his spot and knocked off balance.
The only player the Magic have made it a point to work in the post is Robin Lopez. He leads the league in the frequency of post possessions — 39.4-percent of possessions with him in the game ends with him in a post up for 3.3 per game so far this season.
Lopez has that magical hook shot that has him scoring 1.00 points per possession on post-ups and shooting 58.3-percent from the floor.
A lot of this is because Lopez is a post-up player. He does not have the mobility or the shooting ability to do much. A lot of his numbers are certainly because of the last two games when the Magic had to lean on him for more minutes and run a lot of their offense through him.
And that has certainly changed the Magic’s offense.
Orlando, in the end, is clearly playing to its players’ strengths.
Neither Carter nor Bamba are strong post-up players. And modern offenses tend to rely a lot more on pick and rolls and keeping the paint clear of the big bodies of yesterday. Post-up play is slowly dying off league-wide.
That still raises the question of whether the Magic should keep this two-big alignment if the team is not pressing the advantage they might gain from having two bigs and trying to collapse the paint using their centers and their ability to spread the floor.
It all seems like this is still priming the team to split their centers. Inevitably, Isaac will return and the Magic will likely have to jumble their lineup again once he is up to speed.
And seemingly, the desire to play these two bigs together is not having quite the effect or press the advantages the team would want despite all their best efforts to do so.