The Orlando Magic start a five-game road trip against the Houston Rockets in a battle of two young teams searching for their identities at the start of a rebuild.
Orlando Magic (5-18) vs. Houston Rockets (5-16)
Time/TV: 8 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line via WynnBet: Rockets by 2.5
Tickets: $10-$200 on StubHub
2022 Season Series: Tonight in Houston; Feb. 25 in Orlando
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando | 99.0 | 101.0 | 111.1 | 48.6 | 26.6 | 15.2 | 21.6 |
| Houston | 102.7 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 50.9 | 25.5 | 18.0 | 27.4 |
OMD Prediction
The Houston Rockets have figured some things out. They have five wins just like the Orlando Magic, but they have four of those wins in their last five games. More than that, the Rockets seem to have a distinctive style — something akin to balls to the wall, going as fast as they can and putting pressure on the defense by getting to the foul line.
Where the Magic do not have a lead in any statistical measure, the Rockets are first in pace and in free throw rate. That suggests a distinctive play style. Even if the team is still one of the worst offensive teams in the league with that (even worse than the Magic currently).
Houston will have some injury issues though — Christian Wood is probable with a sprained right ankle, Kevin Porter Jr. is questionable with a left thigh contusion and Jalen Green is out with a left hamstring strain. And like the Magic, the Rockets are not a team that can afford too many injuries. This is not the Oklahoma City Thunder (the last two teams the Houston Rockets beat).
3 Keys To Watch
4th Quarter Magic
The Orlando Magic have an odd statistical quirk working for them. The team remains one of the best fourth-quarter teams in the league with a +9.0 net rating in the final quarter. That is really good. The Magic tend to finish games strong. Of course, that is regardless of the final score.
Orlando’s biggest issue remains to get to that fourth quarter. The team has played in only 26 clutch minutes in nine games (4-5) so far this season. That is 24th in the league. So Orlando is playing in more close games since the last time we checked in on this.
But, here is the secret sauce: The Magic have a +43.8 net rating in those limited “clutch” games so far this season. That trails only the Phoenix Suns (and their incredible 18-game winning streak). The Orlando Magic showed a lot of poise on both ends in defeating the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. This team seems to perform in the clutch.
This Magic team should have some confidence and belief in their ability to win. They just have to get to the fourth quarter and keep the game competitive.
Turning their corner
Every team in the NBA will go through some stretch where they have a lot of success. That is simply the nature of the league. These are all really good players. And even the most inconsistent teams find pockets of strong play. The Orlando Magic will have their moment (again, just look at the schedule late in the season, there are wins to be had if this team grows the way we anticipate and hope).
The Rockets are going through that little spurt right now. Houston has won its last four games after losing 15 games in a row. They are finding that spurt, albeit with Jalen Green still struggling to adjust to the league and with some stalwart veterans leading the way.
Shooting well and moving the ball helps a ton. The Rockets have struggled from the floor throughout the season to date but they have shot better than 50-percent from the floor in three of the four games of this winning streak. Their assist rate in those four wins is better than 60-percent too.
This is a really good moment for the Rockets. they are playing with clarity and purpose. They get good energy from their bench too. Houston has found some balance and found a rhythm.
The Mo/Carter combo
The Orlando Magic are still going against the grain with their lineup, playing Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter together. There have been a lot of times it has been successful and a lot of times where it has struggled, forcing the Magic into a zone defense.
In the last two games, the Magic went into a deep hole early as teams pressed their advantage with dynamic wings at the 4 to beat Bamba or Carter. Tobias Harris (17 points, 8-for-20 shooting) and Aaron Gordon (17 points, 7-for-12 shooting) both had field days especially early in the game. Houston has a ton of dynamic bigs in Christian Wood and Jae’Sean Tate, especially, who will test the Magic’s speed and attention.
This is a tough matchup for them. And Orlando has done a lot of work to try to keep this unconventional duo working. So is it?
The combination of Carter/Bamba have a net rating of -5.9 points per 100 possessions with a 99.7 offensive rating together. During Wednesday’s game, the duo had a +11.6 net rating, making up some ground in the third and fourth quarters. But during Anthony’s absence, the Magic had a -16.2 net rating with the duo on the floor.
Everyone has sensed this group may not be a long-term solution for the team despite all their best efforts. The Magic’s preferred starting lineup has still been solid. But with Jalen Suggs out and difficult matchups ahead, the Magic may soon shift to a more conventional alignment.