As the season continues and the return of Jonathan Isaac draws closer, the decision on whether to start Mo Bamba or Wendell Carter is approaching quickly.
This will not be an easy choice to make, but as Isaac will be the starting forward, it is clear one of them will inevitably be coming off the bench at some point soon. Both centers provide different skill sets and different weaknesses as coach Jamahl Mosley makes one of the most important decisions he has had to make so far.
There is still a lot of playing both Carter and Bamba have to do. And Isaac’s return is looming but does not appear imminent. There will surely be a ramp-up period too before Isaac returns to the starting lineup.
But that decision day is coming. And the Magic should at least be analyzing and preparing for it.
The Orlando Magic know Jonathan Isaac’s return is looming and will bring with it lineup changes. The analysis and evaluation for both Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba is underway.
Bamba has seemingly surpassed expectations on both ends of the floor through 14 games.
Bamba has averaged 11.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. He has also shot the ball well, shooting 45.5-percent from the field and 35.5-percent from three. Bamba has been strong on the defensive end of the court, averaging 2.2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game while improving his decision-making and positioning every game.
This is not surprising in the slightest. Bamba was always able to put up numbers, but what has surprised people is his turnaround in the energy he plays with.
There are multiple possible contributions from a healthy offseason and a new coaching staff. But it is for certain this is the version of Bamba fans have been waiting for.
As for Carter, he is not the shot blocker Bamba is. But he has played very well to start the year. He has been among the Magic’s most consistent and solid players on both ends of the floor, earning the extension the team gave him before the season.
Carter has averaged 13.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He has been shooting lights out from the field to start the year, shooting 52.1-percent from the field and 46.3-percent from beyond the arc. The shooting Carter has displayed has been something no one could have expected.
Defensively, Carter continues to play a sound game. Where he does not put up the numbers Bamba does, Carter has a better sense than Bamba in terms of positioning and is more of a lane protector than a rim protector. His versatility to guard wing players by sliding to power forward has also proved extremely valuable.
With the Magic not being able to emulate having Isaac on the court, it is difficult to determine how well each center would fit next to the ideal lineup.
Considering the different lineups Mosley has tampered with, there have been different lineups that have produced strong results and others that have produced horrendous returns.
In the 13 games where the starting unit has played together, excluding the one game without Jalen Suggs in the lineup Monday, the Magic continue to have a strong plus/minus of a +15.4 net rating. This is among the best lineups in the entire league.
Looking at five-man lineups would provide information that would not be accurate in describing how either player would play once the Magic are healthy for many reasons.
Instead, it is better to look at three-man lineups to try to isolate their impact, especially in lineups alongside players that matter for the team and its future.
Overall, Bamba and Carter have a -3.1 net rating together on the court. The closer three-man lineups that best emulate Jonathan Isaac would be lineups with Chuma Okeke or Franz Wagner alongside Cole Anthony.
For Carter, the line-up of Carter, Wagner and Anthony have a +5.6 net rating. The same lineup with Bamba has a +1.2 net rating.
It should be noted these lineups tend to play together with the starting group. So there is a lot of overlap with Bamba and Carter playing together in these lineups. Still, the difference is stark.
Then, the lineup of Carter, Anthony and Okeke has a -8.8 rating. With Bamba, the lineup has a -21.2 net rating.
With Okeke still getting back into rhythm, the Okeke lineups need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, with Wagner, both have positive ratings, and with both players playing well it will come down to fit.
Carter has been a bit better to start the year, and there is an argument for Carter to continue being the starting center once Isaac returns. However, Bamba has been right there with Carter and has also earned consideration for the starting spot.
On the offensive end, Carter needs to prove he can continue shooting the ball as well as he has been.
On the defensive end of the floor, Isaac is best playing off the ball and playing help defense. That best suits playing alongside Bamba, who is the stronger rim protector and can help and change shots and allow Isaac to have the versatility to crash the glass while playing on the perimeter.
In either case, both centers have a case to continue to be the starter once the team is healthy. And the team will be continuing its evaluation and planning knowing this return is coming.
Regardless, Isaac will be the starter once he returns and works through his minute restriction and final stages of his recovery. It is going to be a tough decision to make, but it is going to be one that Mosley has to take, and it will have long-lasting consequences.