Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves (Nov. 1, 2021): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction
The Orlando Magic close their road trip hoping to end a four-game losing streak and build some consistency to begin building their style.
Orlando Magic (1-6) at Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2)
Time/TV: 8 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line: Timberwolves by 9.5
Tickets: $14-$267 on StubHub
2021 Season Series: Magic 97, Timberwolves 96 in Minneapolis on Jan. 20; Timberwolves 128, Magic 96 in Orlando on May 9
2022 Season Series: Tonight in Minneapolis; March 11 in Orlando
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando | 98.4 | 104.1 | 115.4 | 51.3 | 28.6 | 17.4 | 22.5 |
| Minnesota | 102.3 | 102.0 | 98.4 | 49.4 | 29.5 | 16.8 | 20.7 |
OMD Prediction
The Orlando Magic do not look great statistically right now.
They are, most notably, last in the league in defensive rating early in the season. The only good news on that front is the numbers are all trending in the right direction.
The Orlando Magic’s defense is giving up fewer points — even in the loss to the Detroit Pistons, they gave up 110.0 points per 100 possessions. That is not good, but it is not league-worst either.
And in that case, the Magic gave up a good chunk of those points during a singular run at the end of the third quarter. That part raised a ton more questions about how the Magic are operating.
The bottom line is: There are some good things happening with the team. It is just about getting all the pieces together.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are very much a good model for the Orlando Magic too.
Last year, they started the year with a ton of injuries that put them well behind the 8-ball. But they finished the season strong as they watched Anthony Edwards blossom into a late Rookie of the Year front-runner. Orlando would love for its season to follow a similar course as players return from injury and especially Jalen Suggs gets comfortable.
Chris Finch has done wonders for the Timberwolves after joining the team midseason. And the team has started the year with one of its most promising turns so far. They pressure and defend well. They force turnovers. And they have guys who can score. The offense is not there yet, but the talent is undoubtedly there in Minnesota.
86. Prediction. 97. 38. 112
3 Keys To Watch
Rebounding
It has been listed in this space before. It will get listed again. Just as it was an overarching concern throughout the preseason too. Orlando is struggling to rebound and struggling to attack the glass. And it shows at every turn.
The Magic currently rank 23rd in the league giving up a 29.2-percent offensive rebound rate. They are 27th in the league giving up 15.4 second-chance points per game. It has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses.
And the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to present a huge challenge on that front. Minnesota grabs 29.5-percent of offensive rebounds (sixth in the league) and scores 16.4 second-chance points per game (third in the league).
This will be something that will decide the game.
The thing is Minnesota will give it up on the other end too. The Wolves give up a league-worst 34.4-percent offensive rebound rate. More than one of every three misses are grabbed as an offensive rebound.
The Magic have done well to attack the offensive glass too, averaging a 28.6-percent offensive rebound rate (eighth in the league) and 15.4 second-chance points per game (also eighth).
Again, this game will be decided on the glass. Whoever rebounds will win.
Disappearing veterans
The Orlando Magic may be without Gary Harris for Monday’s game. He was listed as doubtful with a sprained ankle after he slipped on the floor in Detroit on Saturday. Harris has struggled, albeit in just three games after he suffered an injury at the end of training camp that caused him to miss games to start the season.
So really, this is about Terrence Ross, who has struggled tremendously this season. Ross is averaging 11.3 points per game and posting a 50.8-percent effective field goal percentage against 34.3-percent from beyond the arc. Ross is still able to hit big shots and he was a huge reason the Magic have their lone win.
But Orlando is losing Ross’ minutes by a lot. The team has a -34.0 net rating with Ross on the floor compared to +15.1 with Ross off the floor (the only player the Magic have a positive net rating with off the floor).
Some of that, of course, is the lineups he has played with. Orlando’s bench units are terrible and Ross has been at the center of them. But Ross has not played that well either. And the Magic need his stability.
Defensive turnaround
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ early defensive turnaround has been the most interesting thing about this team to this point. Minnesota is fourth in the league with a 98.4 defensive rating. That likely will not stay that low. Teams are going to start scoring eventually and everyone is going to have a bad game that will skew some numbers (especially this early).
But Minnesota was 28th in the league giving up 114.5 points per 100 possessions last year. The Wolves have not been in the top half of the league in defensive rating since 2014. They were in the bottom-10 for every year of that stretch too and often in the bottom five.
Next. Mo Bamba starting strong with newfound opportunity. dark
If the Timberwolves keep this defense up, they should be able to take a step up and be an interesting player. For some reason, their offense has not shown up. But it is safe to say it will at some point.