Orlando Magic Player Comparisons: Preparing for free agency

Orlando Magic Player Comparisons

Wendell Carter

FiveThrityEight: Darryl Dawkins, Domantas Sabonis, Jonas Valanciunas

The Orlando Magic did not quite know what they were getting when they acquired Wendell Carter at last year’s trade deadline. Because, quite frankly, the Chicago Bulls had not been able to figure him out that much either.

Carter was a solid defender who did not jump off the page much — that was the story about him at Duke as well — whose offensive struggles were a bit of a mystery.

Carter certainly did not vibe with the revolving door of coaches the Bulls had. And Jim Boylen seemed to knock all the confidence out of the young center.

Before arriving in Orlando, Carter averaged 10.8 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game with a 52.0-percent effective field goal percentage (on very few 3-pointers).

His arrival in Orlando was the fresh start he needed and he immediately made an impact. Magic fans fell in love with his defensive versatility as he came up with clutch blocks in wins over the LA Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans shortly after his arrival. Orlando fans saw a lot to like in the young center.

He finished the year averaging 11.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game on a 51.0-percent effective field goal percentage (on a little more than 1.0 3-point attempts per game). Those were solid numbers and the magic seemingly shut him down — or slowed him — with minor injuries to preserve their draft spot.

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There were at least a few signs Carter would be a center worth investing in. Although with just 22 games under his belt in a Magic uniform, the team might be right to remain cautious and see how he plays out through an entire season before committing to him long-term.

FiveThirtyEight’s player projection system seems to like him as a long-term starter.

His best comparison is to legendary center Daryl Dawkins’ 1980 season — where he averaged 14.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. Dawkins, known more for his personality and dunking in NBA legend, was a solid defender for that Sixers team that went to the NBA Finals.

There are tons of other solid long-term starters on his comparison list. There may not be a ton of All-Stars on that list, but Carter still projects as a solid long-term contributor.

It would make sense if a team wanted to invest in him long-term. There is plenty to see there.

The question is really about value and what his future role is on a team. And that part is still so uncertain because of the inconsistencies in his career — Carter has not played more than 55 games in any season.

Another reason why the Magic might want to wait and see how he performs over the course of a long season, even if that means the price tag will come up.

For what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight’s projections give Carter a five-year market value of $42.9-million — roughly $8.6 million per year. That is far from the $17 million that industry experts seem to think Carter will gt per year.

That is more proof that while Carter has tons of potential and should settle into a solid role on a team, the Magic are probably right to wait and see what he looks like before putting their center down in pen.

Because signing Carter to a four-year deal would be making a significant investment for a young, rebuilding team.