Orlando Magic Player Comparisons: Young veterans with rookie experience

Markelle Fultz

Basketball-Reference: Shammond Williams, Spencer Dinwiddie, Steve Blake
FiveThirtyEight: Shaun Livingston, Dee Brown, Mo Williams

Markelle Fultz, too, is difficult to judge because he has played so little.

The bursts he has had with the Orlando Magic are still very promising. But there are still some clear weaknesses he has to sort through.

The shooting most of all, a remnant still of the thoracic outlet syndrome that limited his range of motion in his shoulder.

Nobody is quite certain when Fultz will return. We only know he is very excited to get back on the court:

Fultz still has a ton of promise. Even with just one full season under his belt, he established himself as the Magic’s best point guard option, able to attack the basket and finish with creativity. He even developed a solid mid-range jumper and pull-up jumper.

Fultz averaged 12.1 points per game on a 48.8-percent effective field goal percentage. He had 12.9 points per game in the eight games he played in 2021. Obviously, those numbers were depressed by his injury in the first half of that eighth game.

His shooting was starting to come back to earth after a hot start to the season. But Fultz still showed plenty of willingness to shoot. Something that was not a sure thing when he arrived in Orlando. The team just wanted to rebuild his confidence.

It certainly got there. And the Magic were impressed with what they saw in Fultz at the end.

But, like with Isaac, it was all put on hold for Fultz’s injury. And there is still no clear signal of what Fultz looks like on the other side.

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The Sixer Sense

Basketball-Reference similarity scores look specifically at win shares. And it is still not clear what kind of player Fultz is.

Of note, the comparison senses a similarity with Spencer Dinwiddie, another player coming off a torn ACL. But Fultz is not really a similar player to Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie relies a lot more on his shooting than Fultz does.

The better comparisons come from FiveThrityEight’s use of WARP. The comparison to Shaun Livingston feels especially apt.

Livingston was a poor shooter throughout his career, but he carved a place in the NBA after suffering a devastating knee injury in 2007. After that point, Livingston averaged only 6.0 points per game and shot 14.9-percent from beyond the arc.

He made the biggest name for himself as a member of the Golden State Warriors’ title teams. With the Warriors, Livingston averaged 5.4 points per game on a 52.1-percent effective field goal percentage, taking virtually zero 3-pointers.

Fultz does not have Livingston’s size or length to be the defensive presence Livingston became. But their offensive games are very similar. Livingston became a proficient and selective jump shooter.

This is the exact model of offensive game Fultz should find as he recovers from his injury. If not becoming a bit more. Livingston’s initial injury was much more severe than the torn ACL Fultz suffered.

What might be clear from these player comparisons for now is the Magic are still seeking a clear star. And as both Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz leave their rookie contracts, their ceilings are starting to shrink. That is the reality of players as they progress.

Isaac still has that star potential clearly.

But for both players, the question is more about how they reclaim their potential and the base they build in this recovery year as they get back from injury.

This is the first of a series of posts looking at various player comparisons for the Magic’s young players as they begin this rebuild and map out what kind of team they can be.