The moment the Orlando Magic’s logo came up with the fifth pick in the NBA Draft, everyone’s hearts sank. This was the worst possible outcome for the Magic while still putting them in a position to get a quality player. Just not the player everyone hoped for.
For much of the season, this was considered a five-layer draft. So it was not a death sentence by any means. But the top of this draft has been one that teams have long waited for and several teams, including the Magic, positioned themselves to get to the top.
As big boards have developed, a clear top four has emerged with the possibility of a fifth jumping in and maybe a few players knocking on the door of breaking that impenetrable top five from the entire season.
There is still a lot of intrigue to come as teams ponder their possibilities before the draft. Already there are rumors of the top teams exploring and assessing their trade options. And the Magic have to be among the teams looking to trade up.
With two top-10 picks and a roster full of young players the Magic are not likely attached to as they begin to rebuild, the team has a lot to offer. That does not even get into the other assets the team has like the $17-million trade exception or their ability to rent cap space.
Orlando has the tools to move up in the draft. The question is whether they are willing to do enough to get a team to move out of this celebrated top-four. And then whether there is a player the Magic are really willing to expend their trade capital to go get.
It is absolutely worth considering and talking about who the Magic might want to trade up to get among the likely top four. It is also worth considering what the Magic might have to give up to move up in this draft.
The Orlando Magic have the assets to move up in the Draft if they want. The question will be what they are willing to give up. To get to No. 4, it will take a lot and a framework for a deal will be tough.
With just four picks ahead of the team, we can take each pick in turn and see if a framework for a trade makes any sense with the teams above them.
The most important thing to remember is that nothing gets really finalized until the draft plays out. If the Magic are going to trade up, they are going to be trading up for a player and not a pick number.
The first question, that we will not answer here, is about who the Magic would specifically target. That would be the first contingent to any trade discussion.
But assuming that player is there at No. 4 and the Raptors are interested in moving down, the question is what would a deal look like? What framework exists for the two teams to find a common ground?
That part is much more difficult to figure out.
The Raptors as a trading partner
The Toronto Raptors would have seemed like a great trade partner after their surprise jump into the top four. They likely view this season as an injury aberration with the dislocation to Tampa thrown in. The Raptors expect to be in the playoffs again next season.
Toronto Raptors
And they have clear needs to fill — even with the likely re-signing of Khem Birch. The biggest question facing the Raptors this offseason will remain whether Kyle Lowry returns. That could greatly affect their decision to stay or move on from the pick.
Toronto’s cap sheet though is really difficult to swing much of a deal.
Finding a framework that goes beyond draft picks is going to be hard. Orlando would not be able to attach any additional players — like Gary Harris or Terrence Ross, for instance — just because of the salary realities.
The Raptors entering this offseason have only four players under guaranteed contracts — Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Malachi Flynn. It is hard to see the Raptors trading away any of those three players. And for now, most of that unrealized cap room for the 2022 season is sitting with Kyle Lowry’s cap hold.
The Raptors could use some depth and use some quality players to help usher in the next phase of their program. At some point, Lowry will no longer be on the roster. And the team has to be preparing for that.
That is a big reason why it seems to make sense the team would hold steady at four and just take Jalen Suggs if he is available at No. 4.
But what do the Magic have to offer that would make sense?
The proposed frameworks
There is, of course, the home run deal. Some Toronto Raptors fans had spit-balled an offer like this (h/t Sean Woodley of Locked On Raptors):
This is clearly a Raptors-favored trade. And everyone who follows the teams probably understands the Orlando Magic would not do this deal. If Jalen Green falls to No. 4, maybe that is something the Magic would do if that is their guy.
But this is a super all-in move just to move up one spot.
One spot is not a whole lot to move up. At that point, the Magic better be getting the guy they really want to do something like this. This would be a whole lot to offer.
In reality, any deal the Magic would come up with would likely be something similar to the famed Luka Doncic-for-Trae Young swap. That was a simple two-for-one swap for the Atlanta Hawks — they would draft Cameron Reddish in the 2019 Draft with that extra pick from the Dallas Mavericks.
Would that be a framework to move up?
Would this be a deal the Raptors would go for? It feels closer to something that feels pretty equal. Although the Raptors may balk at making it Lottery-protected and instead ask for top-10 protected. Depending on the negotiations for what year that pick comes, the Magic might balk at this kind of deal.
Again, they better be sure they are getting someone they really want at No. 4. Otherwise, the Magic would probably be better off taking what they get at five rather than expending any additional trade assets.
There might be one scenario where the Magic end up getting a player that could make a straight swap make sense.
Rodney Hood has a non-guaranteed deal with a deadline date of July 27. That might be pushed back because the season has been pushed back this year. But the Raptors could theoretically guarantee his deal and include him in a trade.
That could bring someone like Terrence Ross into the mix to send him back to the Raptors. In Ross, the Raptors take on a bit more salary, but they get a quality player who can step right into the roster and contribute to a team that wants to make the playoffs.
That might be enough to get the Raptors to move. It feels like Orlando is giving up a lot. And that is more than fair.
But the Magic are the ones trying to get the prize, even if it is moving up a spot.
If the Magic do try to move up, it would be hard to keep both their picks in the top-10 to do so. Moving up to just No. 4 makes it much more possible the Magic balk at including both picks.
The caveat of course is if the Magic are convinced they have to have the player they would pick at No. 4. When that is the case, spend what it takes to get him. Orlando’s biggest need is to find a star. They should be willing to do what it takes to get there.
With the Raptors, there are definitely a few frameworks to make a trade work. There are a few ways the teams can make something happen. The question is whether it is worth it in the end for the Magic. And whether the Raptors see who they would take at No. 5 as an OK consolation prize.
This does not even get into the possibilities for the Oklahoma City Thunder, for instance with their picks in this draft and their cachet of future picks, competing for a deal to move up. At least, in this instance, the Magic have the trump card in holding the higher pick to offer in the end.
The Magic may have opportunities to move up in this draft. But moving up one spot to No. 4 is not entirely likely with the way both teams are set up.