It feels like the wheels have fallen off for the Orlando Magic.
That is what happens when you sit in 14th place in the Eastern Conference. Injuries are the certain reason why the team has fallen so hard. But there were still plenty of questions the Magic could not answer because of them. And Orlando still failed a lot of tests along the way.
With the trade deadline approaching, the Magic are facing some big decisions. Their future is coming into greater focus and there is clearly an opportunity now to shift the roster and begin transitioning to a new generation for the team.
The promise of a high draft pick will do that. And the Magic are in a position where they can make those changes.
There are several contract decisions to be made that will have far-reaching consequences for the team. Orlando is facing an injury-filled season that is an easy excuse for the fall down the standings. The Magic should feel like they can bounce back quickly with the right mix of health, shrewd dealmaking and the right draft pick.
The team has to get there. That makes this year’s trade deadline all the more important. Orlando has to extract the right value from several key players all while setting up a future with brighter prospects for the short- and long-term.
The Orlando Magic are poised to make changes to their roster and reset the team a bit. The team will be active as the trade deadline approaches.
That can be especially difficult when a team is put in the position of being a seller. Whatever moves the Magic make, it is not likely one that will make the team immediately better or better on paper. The Magic are finally going to have to take some calculated gambles and put something on the line.
Staying the course will not do, even if the Magic feel confident that a fully healthy squad can get them back to the playoffs. this Magic team needs to make some changes and shift the roster. It certainly needs to become a more modern outfit.
That change will inevitably begin with this week’s trade deadline. The Magic have to decide whether to retain Evan Fournier and Khem Birch before they become free agents this offseason. And the trade rumors only seem to be heating up around Aaron Gordon as he enters the final year of his contract next year.
The time for change certainly seems like it is coming.
As we have done for the past several seasons, it is time for our take on the Bill Simmons Trade Value column. The following is a ranking of the Magic’s players based on whether you would trade one straight up for the next taking into account both player production and their future contract.
Category I — Sure you can have them
18. Karim Mane (Two-way contract)
Karim Mane was OK but not spectacular during the Lakeland Magic’s run to the G-League title. He averaged 5.5 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game in starting all 15 games in the Gubble.
The Magic signed him as a long-term project anyway. But it probably is not super great to hear Steve Clifford say that the team does not feel he is ready for NBA minutes and that his development would be served best by watching and experiencing NBA preparation at the moment.
It is not clear whether the Magic will continue this two-way experiment with Mane next year. But they seem willing to try for a little while longer.
17. Chasson Randle (Two-Way Contract)
Chasson Randle has had more than a cup of tea in the NBA since the 2017 season. The Orlando Magic are his fifth team since he came to the league. And unfortunately, he just has not been able to make his mark consistently. Randle seems destined at his current growth to be a forever-two-way player — too good for the G-League but not up to snuff in the NBA.
Orlando Magic
The Magic have had to rely on him heavily with their injuries at point guard. But he has not done to make an impression. He is averaging a career-best 6.0 points per game. But the Magic are opting to go with other playmakers late in games — Aaron Gordon is essentially the late-game point guard when Michael Carter-Williams is out.
This was Randle’s best opportunity for sure and it feels like he is coming up short.
16. Gary Clark (2 years, $4.1 million, non-guaranteed in 2022)
Last Year: 14
The Orlando Magic bet on continuity to try to shortcut this season and that included using what little free agency capital they had to retain players from last season. Gary Clark was fine last season when the Magic were desperate for any kind of depth. He was critical in Game 1 of the playoffs.
But like that playoff series, everyone around the league has learned or correctly bet on Clark’s inconsistency. The Magic again have had to play Clark too much. And while his defense is at least a little bit reliable, his shooting has been so inconsistent that it is hard to call him the stretch-4 the Magic need. Clark is not likely to have his contract picked up next season as the Magic begin to shift their roster.
15. Dwayne Bacon (2 years, $3.5 million, non-guaranteed in 2022)
The Orlando Magic signed Dwayne Bacon to a minimum deal hoping to have a good spot-scorer to bring off the bench. They never imagined they would be relying on him so much this season. Fortunately for them, Bacon has been a lot better than advertised.
With the increased playing time, Bacon has shown a solid ability to get into the lane and hit tough shots off the dribble. He is a solid driver and even his 3-point shooting has been better than expected — 33.6-percent. His career-best 10.2 points per game is as much a product of his increased playing time.
That has also put all his weaknesses on display. He has 16.3 passes per game, the fifth-fewest among players who average at least 20 minutes per game. Bacon is always looking to score and his efficiency there is not always the strongest.
The Magic have been forced to start him and he has delivered with some solid raw numbers. That might convince the Magic to keep him around past his August 9 deadline (or three days after the moratorium) to guarantee the second year of his deal.
Category II — Let me think about it
14. Al-Farouq Aminu (2 years, $19.9 million, Player Option on 2022)
Last Year: 12
Al-Farouq Aminu is still a NBA player. His defense and veteran leadership were the two reasons the Orlando Magic brought him two years ago and what will keep him hanging around the league.
Even as Aminu has struggled with injury, his defense has remained solid. According to Basketball Index, in the top-five percentile in steals per 75 possessions and deflections per 75 possessions and near the top-10 percentile in D-LEBRON Box and in the 75th-percentile in Defensive Box Plus-Minus.
Aminu is as good as he has ever been defensively even when it is clear he is a step slow recovering from his injury. But it is also clear he is giving less offensively than in years before. Not that he gave a bunch.
The fit with Orlando was always a bit awkward. And the decision to sign Al-Farouq Aminu is ranking as the worst decision Jeff Weltman has made, especially considering the team had other needs to help build off their playoff team in 2019. It is not a fatal mistake. But expect Aminu to pick up his player option.
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The Magic are trying to rebuild his reputation so he can help the team and perhaps look to move him in the offseason or at the deadline. There he might still have some value based on his name alone. But the Magic would have to add something to get others to take him.
13. James Ennis (1 year, $3.3 million)
Like players like Dwayne Bacon or Michael Carter-Williams, the Orlando Magic have to feel they have gotten a lot out of a fringe rotation player in James Ennis. Jeff Weltman has done well to identify fringe rotation players who can help keep the team afloat and support the players on the Magic’s roster.
The Magic needed someone to complete their starting lineup who would not need the ball in his hands a lot and could hit a 3-point shot. While his 3-pointer was inconsistent last year, coach Steve Clifford promised James Ennis just needed to get more comfortable in the Magic’s system. He did not get much time before the season went on hiatus last year and then he suffered an injury in the bubble and then again to start this season.
Orlando has not seen the best of Ennis even if the team has gotten a lot more than it thought (even if that was not a whole lot to begin with).
Ennis has a reputation around the league as that great “fifth man.” He is reliable as a defender, can create his own shot with simple one- or two-dribble pull-up moves. That is all anyone can ask for.
But his injury right now will make it very difficult to deal him. And it will not be for more than a second-round pick. the same deal the Magic used to acquire him last year.
12. Michael Carter-Williams (2 years, $6.6 million)
Last Year: 8
Michael Carter-Williams reclaiming his career has been one of the best stories in the league. The former Rookie of the Year was seemingly out of the league after failing to live up to expectations and dealing with several nagging injuries. Twice Steve Clifford has seemingly saved his career — using him as a change of pace guard in Charlotte and then again as a defensive monster off the bench in Orlando.
Carter-Williams has done all that and re-established himself as a great bench player and a great pest defensively. The Magic missing Carter-Williams this year has shown that as he got hurt and again failed to play every game this season.
Orlando likes having Carter-Williams. With two other young point guards, the Magic could use a veteran to keep them level and give them guidance. Especially if he can play alongside them.
But like everything else, the injuries have exposed this roster’s weaknesses. Carter-Williams is an inconsistent driver and still a negative shooter. While his defense is very good. The Magic have learned what everyone probably already knew: Carter-Williams is best in small doses.
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His contract is still pretty friendly. But it is hard to imagine getting more than a low-level rotation player or a second-round pick for him.
11. Khem Birch (1 year, $3 million)
Last Year: 11
Khem Birch has had a really strong season, supplanting Mohamed Bamba as the backup center thanks to his consistency defensively and a slowly expanding offensive game. Birch is averaging a career-best 5.4 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game.
Birch is a grinder. He is the kind of player who can make any team better because he does not demand the ball, screens well and works to play for others. There is a reason Steve Clifford has always gravitated toward him, even when it has not made sense. And Birch never complains, it seems.
This just is not the kind of team that can maximize Birch. The Magic have too many holes offensively to throw out a player that is such a negative on that end. If he were in a lineup that had several offensive weapons that could soak up the possessions Birch leaves open, his complementary play would work much better.
There are a lot of contending teams who could look at Birch and think of him as a great option to help bolster the bench and play that supporting role.
There just is not much of a market for him. Players like Birch are not that difficult to find. And this is not exactly a player you need to worry about retaining his Bird Rights.
That means Birch is a limited role player who could probably only net the Magic a second-round pick with his expiring contract. Or perhaps Birch is a good player to throw into a deal to make salaries match if needed.
That is Birch’s value on the market even if his value on the court is much greater.
Category III — Rookies Galore
10. Mohamed Bamba (3 years, $23.6 million, Team Option in 2023)
Last Year: 6
Draft picks are like cars. They start to lose value when they leave the lot.
A lot of rookies still trade on their pre-draft reputation, especially among fans. Players on their rookie contracts still carry the expectations that came with them from the Draft. Even some executives will look to a player with that old Draft glimmer in their eye.
But coaches do not think that way. Coaches focus on what a player can do to help the team now.
And as players develop, they need to be able to do things to help the team win. And so coach Steve Clifford has determined right now that Mohamed Bamba does not give him the best chance to win.
The market will reflect that conclusion from Clifford. Everyone is looking to snipe Bamba off the Magic’s roster as an undervalued asset, hoping they can cash in on his unrealized potential.
The question is always whether the Magic are ready to move on from him or if the Magic still believe in his development. And that part is not particularly clear.
King James Gospel
More likely than not, the Magic use the back end of this season to give Bamba all the chance to make mistakes and figure out if he fits into the team’s future plans. But he is not anything more than a throw-in to a trade at this point. Or someone that a team grabs on a deal similar to the Markelle Fultz deal.
9. Chuma Okeke (4 years, $15.1 million, Team Options in 2023 & 2024)
Coming off a torn ACL and essentially a year away from basketball with a global pandemic in the middle, nobody knew what to expect from Chuma Okeke in his rookie year. The Orlando Magic have leaned into that remaining fairly careful with Okeke and how they develop him. They are still making sure not to put too much on his plate.
But what Orlando has served up to Okeke he has dealt with fairly well. His role is still small, but he is finding his niche in the league. He has looked solid defensively and has shown promise as a spot-up shooter and a cutter.
The team is still putting all those pieces together and letting Okeke get comfortable. That comfort is getting there for him even if he has not had the breakthrough moment quite yet.
Okeke still needs time on the floor to get all the way back from that torn ACL. But the early returns have been promising so far. Everyone should wait and see what this kid turns into after a full NBA offseason.
8. Cole Anthony (4 years, $15.9 million, Team Options in 2023 & 2024)
The best attribute any player can have is availability. So Cole Anthony’s fractured rib is a setback in that sense. The Orlando magic have to put his development on pause as he recovers from an injury. And that is why he ranks here on this list.
Anthony has had a solid rookie season, averaging 11.0 points per game with a 42.6-percent effective field goal percentage. But, as with most rookies, he was just starting to hit his stride near the midpoint of the season. In the 10 games before the game he got injured, Anthony was scoring 13.0 points per game and shooting a 53.8-percent effective field goal percentage.
Orlando still has to really like Anthony as a scorer from the point guard spot and how he was developing and growing after he was thrown into the starting point guard spot.
The Magic should have no interest in trading him. But his injury would make it hard to get any value anyway.
Category IV — If you keep twisting my arm, I might say maybe
7. Markelle Fultz (4 years, $62.3 million, Team Option in 2024)
Last Year: 2
Markelle Fultz was on track to be the comeback story of the year. Building off his solid first full year in the lead, the Orlando Magic felt they could keep building and trust Fultz to lead the team to its next step. The plan was to trust him a bit more to run the team and get the team moving in the right direction.
Through the first eight games, he was doing that. He averaged 12.9 points per game and 5.4 assists per game on a 41.3-percent effective field goal percentage. There were still hiccups and his shooting was tailing off after a hot start. But who can forget the thrilling comeback he helped complete in Washington early in the season.
There are plenty of skeptics about Fultz and his future development. Can he be the starting point guard on a title team? That is a fair question. He is young enough to figure it all out.
But all of this is on pause. He tore his ACL eight games into the season after signing a three-year extension. Now one of those seasons will be spent regaining strength and getting back to form.
Fultz has to prove himself all over again.
6. Evan Fournier (1 year, $17.2 million)
Last Year: 4
Evan Fournier has had back-to-back career scoring seasons. Averaging 19.1 points per game this season after 18.5 last year, Fournier has become a model of efficiency and good shooting on a team that has lacked that.
Daily Knicks
Letting him go could be the most costly and most difficult player to replace on a team bereft of shooting. Even with his playoff struggles — and unlike Nikola Vucevic, he did not get the benefit of a redemption series because of an injury and an illness that slowed him down inside the bubble — Evan Fournier is still a valuable player.
Like so many of the Magic’s best players, the issue is more about how the Magic have had to rely on him for more than he can truly provide. Orlando has had to use him as a primary ball-handler and scorer which has taken him completely out of place.
And like so many of the Magaic’s best players, it just feels like everything has gone stale. Fournier can probably sense he is not part of this team’s long-term future in the same way. And no one should ever take a pay cut or a lesser role from the same employer (free life advice).
According to Tim McMahon of ESPN.com, Fournier has let it be known he will not re-sign with the team this offseason (although Fournier disputed this report himself on Twitter). That might as well be the same as a trade request. With the Magic out of the playoff picture (or fading quickly from it), there is no sense in retaining Fournier. They do not need him to “save” this season.
Unfortunately, Fournier’s expiring contract turns him into a rental for many teams and thus limits his market. A lot of playoff teams certainly could use a shooter and playmaker like Fournier in a more secondary role than the Magic could afford.
Orlando is probably hoping for a young rotation player or at least one first-round pick (outside the Lottery) in return.
5. Terrence Ros (3 years, $37.5 million)
Last Year: 7
Terrence Ross is a special player.
The Orlando Magic’s super sixth man has the ability to catch fire and score seemingly at will. When he gets hot, he can change games. And his ability to hit shots against tight defense makes him even more valuable. When the Magic are at their best, it is typically because Ross has had a tremendous game.
Those games have been fewer this year. But that may not be completely Ross’ fault. A lot of those issues are simply because he has been in bench lineups depleted by injuries. After two seasons of “The Human Torch” destroying the league in this role, teams have put Ross at the top of their scouting reports. They are doubling him off screens and doing everything they can to make sure he does not break free.
Despite the lower efficiency — 49.6-percent effective field goal percentage — he is averaging a career-best 16.0 points per game.
Ross is on such an affordable deal that the length of his deal does not really matter. He would instantly make any team better with that shooting ability.
That is one of the reasons why Ross will have a market any time the Magic want to make him available. There have been a few teams to inquire about him.
But without the deadline pressure to make a deal and the Magic’s desperate need for shooting and depth, a deal at this point feels unlikely. Orlando will not say no though if a deal comes around that blows them away.
A lot of what the Magic are trying to do at this year’s trade deadline is to set up their future. They want to be back in the playoff conversation next year. And the Magic cannot afford to deal shooters. He is significantly more valuable to the Magic than he might be elsewhere or what he can return.
But undoubtedly, Ross has a lot of value.
If the Magic move Aaron Gordon at this deadline, expect Terrence Ross to be the next hot name the Magic have on their roster they might move — unless they plan to do the big one in dealing Nikola Vucevic.
4. Aaron Gordon (2 years, $34.5 million)
Last Year: 3
There are a lot of questions about the plan Jeff Weltman was trying to execute. Building from the middle is a risky proposition and requires a team to continually improve to cash in the chips necessary to take the step into championship contention. And without a Lottery ticket, it is even harder to find the elite prospects that truly shift franchises.
Orlando, to get to title contention, would likely need an all-in move at some point to push themselves to the next level.
The player that would inevitably be part of that all-in move was Aaron Gordon. The hope was always for him to develop into an All-Star or borderline All-Star they could include in a trade for a bigger player. The Magic were always on the periphery of these deals — like this offseason’s sweepstakes for Russell Westbrook.
But they were not in a position to pull the trigger. And they quickly found out that Gordon was not reaching that star potential.
Gordon’s stagnation is the biggest impediment to the team’s growth. At this point, the Magic have run out of time. They are planning to build with Jonathan Isaac as their main forward. And the question is and should be will Gordon help the Magic get the most of Isaac.
Nugg Love
That is a fair question. And maybe it can work with Gordon’s improvement as a 3-point shooter this year — a career-best 40.2-percent from deep — it could work.
But the team has also seen a lot of his inconsistency this year too. And Gordon still often freelances into a one-on-one style that frustrates observers and plays to his biggest weaknesses.
That is why Gordon finds himself on the block and is likely to be traded. Gordon too has probably seen the writing on the wall. And after just two playoff appearances in seven years, he appears ready to move on and get a fresh start somewhere else too.
A trade is imminent one way or another. The Magic will not get to cash in that Gordon chip to get the star that ties anything together. Instead, Orlando is hoping for some draft capital and a rotation player as they sell Gordon at this year’s deadline.
3. Nikola Vucevic (3 years, $72 million)
Last Year: 5
It is incredible what a year can do to change the perception of a player.
Nikola Vucevic for most of his career in Orlando was a nice player. He averaged a double-double and put up gaudy stats. But his impact on winning was uncertain and it never really rose to a level that went above good stats, bad team.
He made his All-Star appearance in 2019 as the Orlando Magic broke through. But nobody was sure if that was a mere aberration or something more permanent. Vucevic’s numbers leveled off in 2020 as an injury slowed him down early in the season.
Vucevic was right though, making an All-Star team for a second time really does change how a player is perceived and what he means to a franchise.
Vucevic has gone from a player a lot of players were ready to be rid of as a way to literally turn the keys over to a new generation of Magic players to a player receiving general appreciation for what he has done. And the desire to move him to another team so he can compete and win a championship.
Some things do not change.
Pippen Ain't Easy
But Vucevic has completely changed his narrative and importance to the roster. He has carried the team, taking his game to new heights, as the Magic dealt with injuries. Orlando would have by far the worst record in the league if not for Vucevic. The coaches recognized that when he earned a second trip to the All-Star Game.
For the Magic, Vucevic now takes on added importance. As they begin to shift the roster, he becomes a stabilizing force as young players seek their place in the league. He becomes the reliable bulwark that makes it easier or Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz and the draft pick to find their place in the league.
That does not mean Vucevic is a forever part of this team’s future. The Magic may well come to the same conclusion as they did with Aaron Gordon and move him when he has a year left on his contract at next year’s deadline.
But for now, the Magic are moving Vucevic only if they get a star or a player with star potential in return.
Orlando is not looking to reset. In this scenario, Vucevic is still central to the team reloading.
2. Jonathan Isaac (5 years, $79.4 million)
Last Year: 1
Young players with elite skills are hard to come by. That is the biggest thing missing from the Orlando Magic. The reason why this lost season has the potential t put the Magic on the right path still.
Orlando had a playoff team. Even in the low-level Eastern Conference, it did not make complete sense to blow it all up. Except this is the time to turn to a new leaf. This is the time to put the team’s best players in bigger roles. The time has come.
The Magic have one player with an all-NBA skill. Jonathan Isaac’s defense, even when he is just coming back from injury, is a game-changer every time. He positively impacts every game he steps into.
Last year, before his injury, he led the league in “stock” (steals and blocks combined). He rates among the top-10 percentile of almost every metric available from Basketball-Index that measures defensive disruption. He was near the top of the league last year in shot contests that ended in blocks.
He had the top D-LEBRON in the league last year and ranked in the 97th percentile in Defensive RAPTOR.
Isaac will be on the all-defensive team one day and likely remain a mainstay in that group. As the Magic learned his rookie year after he returned from an ankle injury, even at half speed, Isaac can be a positive and disruptive defensive force.
Swarm and Sting
It is an understatement to say how much the Magic have missed Isaac since his original knee injury on Jan. 1, 2020. His return will literally transform this team again.
Isaac is the kind of player who has value even as he gets set to begin a new contract extension (one that will feel like a huge bargain if he does return to full health).
As things stand right now, Isaac is the most important player in the franchise. He can become an all-defensive team player and if he continues to add to his offense — encouragingly, he made 44.0-percent of his corner 3-pointers last year — he can become a central figure to the team.
The question as the Magic begin this new phase of their franchise is whether he can become a true superstar and something more than a defensive specialist.
For now, though, Jonathan Isaac is the one player on the team that does anything at an elite level (Nikola Vucevic is inching closer to that level with his 3-point shooting as a center). And he is by far the most valuable player currently on the Magic’s roster.
1. 2021 First Round Pick
While Jonathan Isaac remains a key and critical part of the team’s future, he is not an established star in this league. He still has a lot of work to do to be a better offensive player and reach that lofty potential. And next year will feel like a rookie year as he returns from a torn ACL.
The most valuable asset the Orlando Magic hold is the only thing good that can come out of this lost season down to the bottom of the standings. It is perhaps the most important tool the Magic now have to get significantly better.
And even though it is reliant on luck, the Magic’s 2021 first-round pick now may make or break Jeff Weltman’s tenure as president of basketball operations.
Many draft pundits and scouts believe the top of this draft is as good as any other in recent years.
Cade Cunningham of Oklahoma State is the real star — a 6-foot-8 guard with point guard feel and passing ability with the shot-creating ability that teams without a star covet.
But after him is a collection of solid players who all have extremely high upsides — G-League Ignite guard Jalen Green, G-League Ignite forward Jonathan Kuminga, USC center Evan Mobley and Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs. All are seen as potential stars and as Green and Kuminga proved in the G-League bubble, they can step in and play a role immediately.
PistonPowered
Even after them, there are some solid players with more questions but solid upside like Arkansas’ Moses Moody, Tennessee’s Keon Johnson, Florida State’s Scottie Barnes or Connecticut’s James Bouknight.
Orlando obviously would prefer to get “rewarded” for this cursed season with a top-five pick. That would make everything worth it. But that part is obviously out of their hands.
For now, the Magic are going to have to assume this pick will land in the top five — the Magic have the fourth-worst records to win the Lottery and that seems to be where the team will eventually land. A chance at one of these players may well be franchise shifting.
And with the players Orlando is likely to retain (and perhaps add with impending trades), that player could well be the one that not only gets them back into the playoff picture but raises their ceiling enough to start climbing up the standings again.
If the Magic have a core of players: it is Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz and this pick.
With the promise of this draft, this pick is now the most important trade asset for the Magic. And it is probably completely untouchable.