The Orlando Magic are not where they want to be at this point of the season.
They envisioned themselves taking the leap into the upper half of the Eastern Conference. With a strange pandemic season, they believed team continuity would help them shortcut their way to that next step, even with Jonathan Isaac out for the season with a torn ACL.
That has not happened. It has gotten to the point where injuries have gutted the team so much that the team has re-adjusted its goals. Just making the playoffs at this point would be considered a success.
Yes, the mighty (or the mediocre) have fallen.
The Magic have lost more games to injury than any other team in the league by nearly two dozen games. But that does not change the reality.
Orlando entered the midpoint of the season at 13-23, good for 14th in the league. The Magic trail the final play-in spot by 3.5 games. That is tantalizingly close. Close enough not to give up completely on the season.
But Orlando has lost its best opportunity to build wins. By almost any measure, the Magic had one of the easiest first halves of the schedule. By almost any measure, they will have one of the more difficult second halves to their season.
Fans’ eyes have already turned to the draft. The trade deadline looms in a few weeks and that will prove to be a major turning point for the franchise.
The Orlando Magic are sinking down the standings and their goals will certainly begin to shift as they play out the third quarter of the season.
Everyone seems to expect the Magic to hit the reset button to some degree. How much they try to reset with the promise of a high draft pick in their back pocket is the question. It does not seem like it is in this front office’s vocabulary to hurt the team too much. They likely view this season as something of an injury aberration.
Whether it is or not could be one of the bigger bets.
The Magic still have time to make some decisions. While they are not likely going to do anything to “save” this season and make sure the team sneaks into that play-in tournament, even if they play well to start the second half, it could well push the team in one direction or another.
One thing is for sure, what the Magic do in the next 18 games will have a major impact on the team’s future far beyond this season.
Here are our questions the Magic have to answer in the third quarter of this season.
What does this team look like healthy?
Since Dec. 31, the Orlando Magic have dealt with some serious injury to someone in their starting lineup. Actually, it started during the preseason before Evan Fournier had his first flare-up with back spasms when James Ennis was struggling with a shin issue.
Every team deals with injuries at every point in the season. But Orlando has seen every single one of its starters go down to some injury for some extended period of time except for Nikola Vucevic.
The cascading injuries started with Evan Fournier’s back injury against the Philadelphia 76ers. It continued with Markelle Fultz’s torn ACL that knocked him out in the eighth game.
Then, just as the Magic seemed to be finding some footing, Aaron Gordon severely sprained his ankle. He has been out since Jan. 31 — a now-15-game absence. And then Cole Anthony suffered a rib injury on Feb. 9 that has kept him out for 11 games.
Al-Farouq Aminu made his return from a 14-month absence. And he is just getting his legs under him as more upheaval continues in the lineup and rotation.
Orlando Magic
It has been one thing after the other.
The Magic rightly blame their tumble to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings solely on their injuries. They were in very good shape when Fultz went out. And they have not had much chance to gain any rhythm or consistency with how quickly their lineups and rotations have had to change.
How many games have the Magic played with just eight or nine available players this year?
Orlando is likely hoping that the team can make up the 3.5-game gap to the final play-in spot based solely on the return of players like Gordon and Anthony. Just having some more rotation-level players and high-level players would help a lot.
Gordon alone would give the team another guy who can potentially create some shots for himself and others (at least theoretically) and give the Magic another solid defender. More than anything, the Magic need more depth.
They have leaned very heavily on the production of Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross especially. Adding even two other guys who can get 10 points every night in Gordon and Anthony would be a huge boost to the offense. And obviously, Gordon and Anthony can do a lot more — Gordon is averaging 13.8 points per game and Anthony is averaging 11.0 points per game.
It is unclear when either Anthony or Gordon will be back. It might still be piecemeal and it might not be immediate. But their return will make the Magic better by default.
The question then is whether they return in time for the team to get itself together and make a run with the schedule the Magic have.
If they can do that, maybe Orlando can make a late push for the playoffs. Or at least, the Magic will have a better sense of what this team looks like at full strength heading into 2021 with the returns of Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz.
Who gets moved at the trade deadline?
Obviously, everyone is counting down to the trade deadline on March 25 as the next big decision point for this franchise. The team feels like it is at a crossroads and the trade deadline is the first point where the team will stake a course one way or the other.
The biggest decision involves Evan Fournier. He will become a free agent this offseason and it feels like his time with the team has come to an end. It feels unlikely the Magic will commit to him long-term at the same price he fetched five years ago.
With the Magic sinking down the standings, it seems more and more likely the Magic will try to sell Fournier for whatever the team can get. They are likely hoping for some young prospect who needs a chance.
A Fournier trade feels like it is a better-than-50-percent chance it will happen. There is already plenty of rumored interest in adding him as he continues his career season (even through a bout of back spasms throughout this season).
The question then is just how far is the Magic’s retooling going to go at this juncture? Are the Magic going to engage in a more complete rebuild now and what will that say for the team’s offseason?
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Is this where the Magic decide to move Nikola Vucevic, signaling the stomach to undertake a longer-term rebuild? Is this where the team makes the inevitable Aaron Gordon trade to free up room for Jonathan Isaac when he returns?
The team is clearly shopping. There are numerous rumors of teams inquiring about Nikola Vucevic’s availability.
It feels unlikely the team moves him at this point. He is the only thing keeping the Magic competitive at this point. And teams are not likely to give the Magic the kind of return they want to move their All-Star.
What about Gordon then? Is this the time the Magic make a move with him? That trade feels inevitable. But his injury status probably keeps him on the team past the deadline and into the offseason.
Terrence Ross and Khem Birch could also be valuable players the Magic shop around at the trade deadline.
Like previous years, Orlando is likely listening to offers on several players. What they actually do at this juncture will be limited. The real question is whether their standard and what deals they are willing to take has changed because of their fall in the standings.
My guess is that the team finds a taker for Fournier before the deadline. Maybe one other minor deal gets done. But the team saves the biggest of its reshaping for the offseason.
How do we measure success?
Expectations shift during the season.
The main goal from the start of the season should rarely change and it is important to go back to that goal at the start of the season. But as the season winds through, expectations and what the team can achieve has to change. There still have to be short-term goals to achieve so that players can continue developing and the team can get itself right.
At the beginning of the season, the team’s goal was to return to the playoffs and begin the climb up the standings to compete for homecourt advantage. Looking at the current Eastern Conference landscape, that seems pretty achievable even without Jonathan Isaac.
The team went 6-2 to start the season and looked every bit capable of achieving that goal and building some forward progress. But Markelle Fultz’s injury changed everything.
The team has struggled to find consistency on either end without Fultz. Injuries piled up and the Magic found themselves sinking down the standings.
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Everyone on the team quickly points out they do not know what this team is capable of because of all the injuries. It would be nice before the trade deadline to get Aaron Gordon and Cole Anthony back to give the team one last chance to make the case for itself.
Nikola Vucevic was quick to say at the All-Star Game that the team wished it could have made its mark climbing the Eastern Conference standings. But for now, Vucevic said the goal is to make the playoffs again. With all the injuries, Vucevic said that would be quite the accomplishment.
That still leaves the playoffs as something of a goal. It should remain the standard by which we judge this team. And no doubt, injuries or not, missing the playoffs makes this season a failure that deserves some reckoning and careful examination in the offseason.
Running it back will not do after this. The team has to begin shaping its future. That is a goal that was likely delayed. And this disaster of a season is going to force some action.
The playoffs though seem far-fetched — FiveThirtyEight gives the team less than a 10-percent chance of making the playoffs considering their record, level of play to this point and their remaining schedule.
So what is the team’s success now? There still needs to be a purpose to this season, right?
For now, the Magic’s goal should remain to try to make the playoffs. The third quarter of the season is a bit early to be packing it in and focusing on anything else. Their young players are largely playing anyway — with both Cole Anthony and Chuma Okeke likely to get increased roles as they get more comfortable and continue to play well.
The third quarter of the season should still be about winning. And the weeks leading into the trade deadline are likely the Magic’s last gasp to make a playoff push before the front office decides to make moves that might, in effect, pull the plug.
The team can re-evaluate what it wants to get out of the season following that point. The team is close to the point of pain, but should not consider it there yet.
Will Mohamed Bamba get consistent minutes?
Both Chuma Okeke and Cole Anthony have had some very bright moments this year and have places firmly ensconced in the rotation. No one would debate that they should be playing or that they have earned their place in the rotation.
Even if Magic fans are in “tank mode” and want the team to focus on young players, those two young players are playing. And they will benefit from being placed in situations where their play impacts winning.
Okeke’s three-point barrage to help the Orlando Magic defeat the Golden State Warriors was a huge step for the young player and a huge confidence-builder. Orlando wants to put him in those situations.
With Markelle Fultz out, Cole Anthony will get plenty of opportunities to play and likely will regain his starting spot when he returns.
The bigger question then is how do the Magic get Mohamed Bamba more integrated into the rotation. This might be the one area where the Magic have to manipulate their rotation a bit and make sure their young player is getting some experience.
The Magic have not been clear on Mohamed Bamba’s status or why he is or is not playing on a given day.
Bamba obviously had issues that were beyond his control — his recovery from COVID-19 has been slow and frustrating, but the team is right to be careful. He started from behind on a season that gave young players especially little chance to catch up.
King James Gospel
Khem Birch played really well and earned a spot in the rotation. Bamba was just kind of lost.
But as the team has slipped down the standings, it has become clearer the team needs something else. Birch’s hot start has slowed down. And Bamba should at least get the opportunity. When he has played he has made a clear impact — 18.1 points, 14.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per 36 minutes in his limited minutes.
If there is something the Magic should make sure they do in the next 18 games, it is to let Bamba play and see what he can give you.
Even when Steve Clifford has said he was going to give Mohamed Bamba consistent minutes, he pulled back from that promise very quickly. This needs to stop. It is not helping anyone for Bamba to have inconsistent minutes or to play without some set plan to get him minutes.
At this point, Bamba has to play. The Magic have very little to lose. But the biggest thing they could lose is giving up on Bamba before they really know what he has. And so this stretch of games, while the Magic are still trying to win and stay afloat in the playoff race, is a good chance to get him this valuable playing time so that he can make the most of the rest of his season.
Can Nikola Vucevic keep it up?
Nikola Vucevic has been the unquestioned leader for this team. He has been a rock standing up against a turbulent season. His composure and cool play have kept this team together even through incredible adversity and frustration.
It is clear this season is not what anyone wanted. And often, the Magic have felt a bit powerless to stop what has come. There is just no way to build consistency when so much is in constant flux for this team. They can barely throw out a consistent lineup let alone build momentum.
Vucevic has stood there just doing his work and elevating his game. If there is a sign that next year can be a whole lot better, the return of Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz alongside the expected draft pick that is the “reward” for such a terrible season along with this version of Nikola Vucevic should be enough to restore the Magic and put them back on track.
Vucevic has been brilliant this year. And that brilliance has simply become commonplace. He has averaged a career-best 24.6 points per game with solid rebounding (11.6 per game) and shooting numbers. His expansion to the 3-point line has transformed his output and performance.
Vucevic has been a picture of consistency in an inconsistent year.
Pippen Ain't Easy
For now, the Magic should be asking for the moon if anyone wants to trade for him. And for now, the Magic should consider Vucevic a key part of their future development in the short-term. He would help stabilize the young roster the Magic are sure to start building around.
It is important then for Vucevic to keep up this production and show he can get through the entire season playing at this All-Star level.
That should not be much of a question. Vucevic has been the most consistent player on the Magic’s roster for nearly a decade. There have rarely been times where Vucevic did not give exactly what the team needed or asked of him (offensively, at least).
Orlando has asked a ton of Vucevic at this point. They will continue to ask a lot of him. Hopefully returning some players from injury will alleviate some of that pressure. But the Magic will still need to have Vucevic playing at a high level.
And a strong finish to the season will set him up to make another All-Star run with a healthier roster next season.