The Orlando Magic have decided to leave the roster largely unchanged for the 2021 season. But that does not change the team’s long-term outlook or need to change.
The Orlando Magic came into the NBA’s annual free agency period with the potential for a roster shakeup.
The team returned to the playoffs for the second straight year, confirming its 2019 run was no fluke. But the team is not satisfied with its playoff cameo. The Magic struggled with injuries throughout the entire 2020 season and floundered to a 33-40 overall record, eighth in the Eastern Conference.
The Magic’s dreams of competing for homecourt advantage quickly evaporated. And the team’s future feels more uncertain with Jonathan Isaac out for the 2021 season.
The team felt ripe for change. There is no standing still in the NBA and the Eastern Conference was set to improve even before the free agency gun went off.
But with the Magic’s limited cap flexibility and a full roster little change should be expected through the remainder of the week. The team is essentially running the same roster back.
The Magic very well could have made the changes that everyone sought. There were opportunities to make deals. But the team ultimately decided to stick with its roster as its best change to make the playoffs. The team did not see a deal that made sense for the team’s future in the end.
Where does this leave the Magic? And what comes next?
To recap, we will look into the negotiations made at the start of free agency and the rumors surrounding potential trades to analyze where the Magic can go from here.
Free Agency
While the Orlando Magic’s core players under contract for at least two more years, minimum-level restricted free-agents Wesley Iwundu and Gary Clark and unrestricted free-agents D.J. Augustin, Michael Carter-Williams and James Ennis entered the free-agency period without a guarantee of playing for the Magic 2021.
Augustin was the most expensive of them all, but he opted for a pay cut to join the Milwaukee Bucks and contend for a championship.
Free agent guard DJ Augustin has agreed to a three-year, $21M deal with Milwaukee, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 21, 2020
In addition to their five impending free agency decisions, Orlando also had two incoming rookies to sign: Chuma Okeke, their 2019 first-round selection, and Cole Anthony, whom the Magic selected 15th overall last week.
The Magic’s decision to draft Anthony likely also swayed Augustin’s decision. Orlando was officially turning the keys over to Markelle Fultz and D.J. Augustin never really fit the up-tempo style the Magic were looking to implement.
Before the start of free agency, the Magic’s committed salary obligations already exceeded the projected salary cap of $109.1 million for the 2021 season. Though some of this money was held for Evan Fournier who had a player option for the 2021 season. He chose to take that option and stay with the team for the final year of his deal.
This was expected. Fournier has been effective in Orlando as the team’s only reliable outside shooter but it’s unlikely he would command that level of interest on the open market.
With Fournier returning, the Magic knew they would be unable to re-sign all of their remaining free agents. Doing so would bring Orlando over the luxury tax apron, making the roster much more expensive.
Ultimately, the franchise decided to cut Iwundu loose, which is a more serious loss than most Magic fans may admit to. Iwundu showed promise last season, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.
The Magic reached agreements with Carter-Williams and Ennis shortly after the free-agency moratorium began. Later the same day, they also agreed to terms with Clark for a 2-year, $4.1-million contract.
Free agent Gary Clark has agreed to a two-year, $4.1M deal to stay with Orlando, source tells ESPN.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) November 21, 2020
Seeing the need for further depth at small forward, the Magic signed restricted free-agent Dwayne Bacon on a minimum deal. On the surface, the decision between Iwundu and Bacon came down to cost, and the Magic’s preference toward Carter-Williams and Ennis over Iwundu.
Without the exact salary figures for Carter-Williams and Ennis, we can only speculate on the decision to let Iwundu walk. Iwunud reportedly signed a minimum deal with the Dallas Mavericks.
Bacon is a low-risk bet on a reclamation project. He had a strong offensive showing two seasons ago before his 3-point accuracy fell to 28-percent last season on a low volume of attempts.
Either the Magic like his defensive ability enough to compensate or they are hoping that his shooting recovers in a limited role. But his familiarity with Steve Clifford from his time with the Charlotte Hornets likely played a role in bringing him as insurance at the end of the bench.
Late on Tuesday, the Magic signed Jordan Bone, a former stand-out at Tennessee who played five games for the Detroit Pistons last season. Bone signed a two-way contract, meaning he will split his time between Lakewood and Orlando.
The second two-way spot appears headed to Karim Mane, a 6-foot-6 guard with a long wingspan from Canada.
Trade Market
Even with limited cap flexibility in free agency, the Orlando Magic could have (and still may) make a trade to improve their roster.
Yahoo’s Chris Haynes reported there were conversations held between the Orlando Magic and the Houston Rockets on a swap centered around Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook, but substantial talks never materialized.
Yahoo Sources: The Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic had discussed a trade featuring Russell Westbrook for a package centered around Aaron Gordon, but talks never progressed.
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) November 20, 2020
After Westbrook publicly demanded a trade, the Magic were rumored to be on the shortlist of teams with an interest.
The problem with a Westbrook-to-Orlando trade is the salary. The remaining three years on his current contract are due on a backloaded scale, ballooning to a $47 million payment for the 2023 season.
Given the Magic’s current constraints with their own salary obligations, a healthy number of sizeable contracts would have to be sent to Houston for the trade to meet the obligations of the collective bargaining agreement.
Losing Aaron Gordon; along with either Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic, or Markelle Fultz at a minimum; an additional player for matching salary; and some form of draft compensation the Rockets would likely request, makes the trade unpalatable for Orlando.
If you sign Westbrook, with little flexibility to surround him with additional talent in the process, what is your team’s ceiling?
The other deal that seemed to have the Magic attached to it was one that was similar to a lot of the other deals swung throughout the offseason.
The Portland Trail Blazers reportedly targeted Aaron Gordon before settling on Robert Covington, offering Trevor Ariza’s expiring contract, the 16th overall pick and a lottery-protected 2021 pick.
Orlando Magic turned down Portland’s offers to land Aaron Gordon, before the Blazers used similar assets to make their move for the Rockets’ Robert Covington, per sources. Gordon was said to be the Blazers’ No. 1 target.
— Mitch Lawrence (@Mitch_Lawrence) November 17, 2020
Whether that was a real offer or not, Magic fans uniformly rejected the deal as the Magic reportedly did. Orlando was clearly not looking to be a dumping ground for expiring contracts and draft picks. The team still believes it can make the playoffs and wanted some quality player in return for one of its starters.
Other trades centered around Gordon are still possible, but the market is drying up quickly. The longer the delay, and the more likely a deal does not materialize this offseason.
A trade centered around Vucevic is also a possibility, but there does not appear to be sufficient demand across the league or a desire from the Magic to deal him quite yet. His style of play does not fit the rosters of the NBA’s top-tier teams, those willing to pay a premium in hopes of competing for a championship.
What’s Next
Orlando Magic fans are likely feeling some form of frustration. While the team made the playoffs last season, bringing back the same roster sans Jonathan Isaac does not guarantee another postseason birth.
The Brooklyn Nets will regain superstar talent, and both the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks have made roster changes that should improve their respective playoff prospects. Former All-Star John Wall is scheduled to return from injury, giving the Washington Wizards additional firepower.
In defense of the Magic’s management, there is no guarantee that better opportunities were presented to ameliorate the roster. Orlando certainly fielded offers for Gordon and other players but they decided those offers did not deliver sufficient return.
Orlando still entered this season with the goal of making the playoffs. Clearly, the team turned down offers that would have netted them draft assets and cap flexibility alone.
It can be challenging to stand pat when there is little prospect of serious contention this season, and some praise should be offered to President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman and his staff for their patience.
The most understated part of NBA free agency is that all processes, whether it be signing players or making trades, requires an interested second party. Even if salaries align on paper the decision-makers involved still need to be inclined.
The Magic’s current predicament is less a result of their inability to pull the proverbial trigger this week and more directly due to their lack of ingenuity in making roster changes over the past three seasons.
Orlando Magic
And still, Orlando will have options to reposition its roster during the 2021 season.
Evan Fournier’s expiring deal and strong outside shooting will make him an enticing target at the trade deadline. Contenders like the Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers or Golden State Warriors could have a short-term interest in February.
If Aaron Gordon improves his play to start the season, his value could rise to the point where the Magic are offered what is perceived as a justifiable return, one that provides the opportunity to build for the future.
And the Magic’s 2021 season along with the development of young players like Mohamed Bamba, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke and Markelle Fultz could change the team’s position. Falling out of the playoff race early might make the Magic more amenable to the kinds of deals they turned down this offseason.
Ultimately, the mediocre middle is the worst position to be in the NBA. Without the potential of gaining a high-caliber draft pick, a first-round playoff exit or loss in a play-in game is not nearly satisfying enough.
Still, the Magic understand its worth in developing young players, even if it makes it more difficult to make the big move or add the potential big-name player. The Magic might need to take a step back to take their ultimate step forward. The team just is not ready to commit to that path yet.
If Weltman and the Magic are waiting for their opportunity to strike, then maybe their patience appears more favorable in hindsight. Maybe there will be a desperate buyer who offers a sweetheart deal or diaper dandy that falls in the draft.
But given the limited number of options for Orlando to improve over the next year, it is not hard to argue that the franchise is stuck in limbo. It may be time to reshuffle the deck.