The Orlando Magic were rumored to have shopped Aaron Gordon at the February deadline and could be looking to move the young forward this offseason.
Before the suspension and restart of the 2020 season in Orlando, the Orlando Magic were rumored to have shopped Aaron Gordon during the annual NBA trade deadline in mid-February, per Forbes’ Sean Deveney.
Interest across the league was low at the time given Aaron Gordon’s contract still had some fat on it. He signed a 4-year $84 million deal as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2018. And the Magic were still in the midst of a playoff battle, unwilling to give away a young player without a healthy return.
Gordon’s contract is heavily front-loaded, paying $20-plus million in the first two years, before declining to $19.9 and $18.1 million in 2021 (next season) and 2022, respectively. With the decline in cost, more options become available and more suitors become interested.
As the offseason gets set to begin, Gordon is still in the crosshairs. If the Magic entered the trade deadline shopping Gordon around, it was likely more to test the market. Unless a deal blew them away, they were perfectly content to keep him.
That might still be the case. All the while, the now 25-year-old forward has struggled to find consistency. He had a stellar offensive season in 2018, followed that up with a stronger all-around and defensive season in 2019 in helping the Magic reach the Playoffs.
But that star push never came in 2020. Injuries slowed him down for sure, but Gordon struggled to shoot and only started to build up the kind of high-level play everyone expected of him only late in the season. And nobody knows what he would have looked like in the playoffs because of one final injury for good measure.
The Magic are facing an offseason where change feels necessary. The team did not advance up the standings. And the young Gordon with two years left on his contract remains the team’s most attractive trade piece. At least, the one the Magic might be most willing to part with.
For now, Orlando is planning on having Gordon on their team and focusing on internal improvement. But there are reasons a Gordon deal might be difficult for the Magic.
But it is the central question of the Magic’s offseason.
Potential trade difficulties
Jonathan Isaac’s knee injury, and the confirmation that he will not play during the 2021 season, certainly creates a headwind against an immediate trade. Unless the Magic receive a sizeable forward in return for Aaron Gordon, losing crucial depth in the frontcourt would make another run to the playoffs difficult.
While this does not eliminate the complete possibility of a deal, it narrows the potential packages the Magic would accept in return.
Gordon’s recent play should also limit his market.
After a fairly impressive 2018 campaign, Gordon’s offensive production has declined sharply over the past two seasons (aside from improved outside shooting in 2019).
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Generated 10/3/2020.
Even while compiling higher per-game scoring totals, Gordon has never been an efficient scorer. According to Cleaning the Glass, he has only had one season in which he scored at an above-average rate among forwards.
It would be easier to trade Gordon if he had shot near league-average from outside in consecutive seasons, instead of the precipitous decline that occurred in 2020. As Steve Clifford said on a recent episode of the Orlando Magic Pod Squad, if Gordon could get to 37 or 38-percent shooting from three, he would be a completely different player.
Management across the league is wary of using valuable cap space on forwards who cannot stretch the floor.
If you have not given justifiable evidence for consistency, which Gordon has not, it is risky to assume a change of scenery alone will cure shooting woes.
This deep into his career, the though of him becoming a star is getting dimmer even with his age. Other teams are likely to value Gordon more as a secondary player rather than the primary scorer the Magic have often had to play him as.
Potential suitors and returns
The Orlando Magic are not completely handcuffed. The NBA will always offer gambles to be made on the open market, depending on your appetite for risk.
And with few free agents this offseason, the trade market appears to be the best way for any team to improve. The Magic still hold a lot of power. They do not have to trade Gordon. He has two years remaining on his deal and the team still wants to remain competitive.
But they still have to survey the market once again.
This is why we will present the potential scenarios in order of the risk profile Jeff Weltman, John Hammond and the organization would be willing to incur in the deal. A good measure of the probability of the deal coming to fruition.
Denver Nuggets: Gary Harris and Keita Bates-Diop
The deal makes more sense on paper than in practice, but it has some real potential for both sides.
Gary Harris’ deal (two years, $39.6 million remaining) is backloaded to be slightly more expensive than Gordon’s during the next two seasons. The Denver Nuggets could be interested in shedding this salary before Jamal Murray’s extension kicks in.
The Magic have room to incur the cost, but would probably demand a sweetener for the expense.
Denver made an unexpected run to the Western Conference Finals, and the rest of the league realized what the Nuggets had already sensed internally: this young core is ready to take the next leap.
Harris has become semi-expendable since the start of the 2020 season. His usage has dropped significantly since Jamal Murray has blossomed into an All-Star-level guard and took over as the Nuggets’ main outside threat.
With this drop, Harris’ offensive efficiency has also fallen off. He made 34-percent of his 3-point attempts the last two seasons, after shooting 42-percent and 40-percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
Michael Porter Jr. and Monte Moris could fill his 32 minutes per-game rather seamlessly, and provide more of the offensive firepower Denver will need to contend with the league’s best. Both proved that they’re ready for a bigger role during the Nuggets postseason run.
Denver coach Mike Malone would argue the deal does not make sense defensively. Harris was one of the team’s best defensive answers in the regular season and postseason on the perimeter.
Denver Nuggets
Gordon is not a capable enough defensive presence to anchor a hypothetical Nuggets starting lineup. The Nuggets could go large with Porter Jr., Gordon, and Nikola Jokic to start, assuming they do not bring back Paul Millsap, who is a free agent this offseason.
Acquiring Gordon would essentially be in hopes of upgrading a bit over Millsap with athleticism. But the Nuggets also have a non-shooter in Jerami Grant who had a breakout year too. Grant is also a free agent. So Gordon fits a type of athletic, defensive-minded forwards the Nuggets like to add to their rotation.
Orlando could point to the fact that Denver’s identity is not predicated on defense entirely. Going on all in an offense could be a way for the Nuggets to zag in a league that’s zigging.
To this point, Nuggets fans have at least some interest in a Gordon-for-Harris deal. Aaron Gordon is very much a player Nuggets followers are thinking about.
And why would the Magic give up on Gordon for a shooting guard that is ostensibly on the decline?
Simply put, Harris is the perfect mold for a Steve Clifford defensive system.
He has become one of the league’s better on-ball and off-ball defensive guards and would thrive in Clifford’s system roving in the halfcourt creating live-ball turnovers. Harris’ steal percentage has been among the league’s best for his position ever since he entered the league.
On offense, why couldn’t Harris rediscover his outside shot in an expanded role? Terrence Ross experienced a similar decline in his outside shooting during his transition from the Toronto Raptors to the Orlando Magic before correcting his accuracy last season.
Keita Bates-Diop could be a nice pick-up to fill in for Isaac during the 2021 campaign. At 24 years old, he is significantly older than most third-year players.
But his potential is completely untapped, similar to Mohamed Bamba’s. This season could be a test run for the Magic to see if Bates-Diop has the chops make an impact at the NBA level.
Phoenix Suns: Kelly Oubre Jr. and Cameron Johnson
This return might be tougher for the Orlando Magic to swallow, given Aaron Gordon’s projected trajectory when he signed his contract.
But this is the reality of the NBA. Players and teams do not make linear progressions. Eventually, you have to make an ostensible downgrade to recoup value for a player on the decline. There is addition by subtraction sometimes too. Gordon’s departure would give Jonathan Isaac more playing time when he returns and gives Chuma Okeke a clearer path to minutes.
Adding Kelly Oubre Jr. and Cameron Johnson provide the Magic with needed outside shooting and versatility at the forward position. Oubre can slide down and play minutes at power forward if the Magic want to go smaller.
Phoenix Suns
Johnson shot the ball very well as a rookie — 39-percent on almost five attempts per game. That is impressive, even when entering the league at 23 years old. If the Magic paired him with Ross and James Ennis off the bench, they would be able to sustain their offense while Nikola Vucevic rests.
Defensively, both Oubre and Johnson have the physical gifts to become tenacious defenders. They are great examples of clay that Clifford could mold into defensive stalwarts.
The question of character and buy-in could come in to play. Magic management would need to perform their due diligence to determine if either would fit the team’s culture.
Both were contributors to a Suns team that almost made the playoffs during the restart in Orlando. Maybe Jeff Weltman, John Hammond and Steve Clifford would use Phoenix Suns’ eight bubble games as evidence to support their development as teammates.
For the Suns, Gordon would fit well alongside Devin Booker. The Suns relied heavily on transition opportunities to sustain their offense. They had the best league’s best transition scoring efficiency last season, per Cleaning the Glass.
Magic fans know that Gordon is built to play in transition. His athleticism and speed make him a tough cover for even the most athletic forwards.
He and Deandre Ayton could be a symbiotic pairing, given that one discovers a reliable outside shot. Both are cerebral enough to play off the other and could make for a fun offensive wrinkle to partner with Booker’s isolation scoring.
While this package does not net a headline player, the Magic could be satisfied with a return of two dependable role players that could provide increased versatility on the perimeter.
Brooklyn Nets: Spencer Dinwiddie and Lance Thomas
This trade is a little bit abstract. It makes some sense for the Orlando Magic, even while leaving a hole in the forward rotation. It would be tougher for the Brooklyn Nets to justify.
Brooklyn is in an odd position.
Their roster is situated around two max-level All-NBA players in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and they have a first-year head coach joining next season. It will already be difficult enough for the franchise to find their footing without an additional shakeup to the roster.
With Durant and Irving’s return to the lineup, the Nets should contend in the Eastern Conference. They have decent depth to back up their two stars, namely Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie.
LeVert has shown flashes of All-Star potential, but he has been sidelined by constant injuries throughout his career.
A true LeVert emergence leaves Dinwiddie in a position where he is both valuable to the franchise and expendable if they decide to attempt a roster upgrade.
Why would the Nets be interested in Gordon? His versatility would afford them the choice to field a more flexible roster. Slot Gordon at power forward and Durant at center around three guards for a modern feel. Or leave Gordon at his natural power forward position alongside Durant and Jarrett Allen for a super-big look.
The Magic could certainly use Dinwiddie’s talents as well. Even with Marketlle Fultz’s emergence this season, Orlando would benefit from a combo guard that can create shots for himself and his teammates.
Dinwiddie has had stretches during the last few seasons that would suggest an offensive breakout is possible in an expanded role.
The Nets would have to include Lance Thomas so that the trade appeases the Collective Bargaining Agreement’s bylaws, and so the Magic can add another forward to the roster.
Brooklyn might request a draft pick as compensation for releasing the affordable Dinwiddie. Orlando could counter that he’s two-plus years older than Gordon.
Ultimately, Clifford and the Magic would have a hard time winning consistently with Lance Thomas, Al-Farouq Aminu, Chuma Okeke and Wesley Iwundu responsible for 48 minutes at small forward. That’s too important a position in today’s NBA for a team to survive without a legitimate offensive threat.
Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine and Thaddeus Young
The final hypothetical deal is more radical than pragmatic, and unlikely to ever come to fruition. This is the kind of trade that would blow up Twitter for an hour.
The Chicago Bulls have found themselves wedged in a strange paradigm in the last two seasons. First, they fired their head coach 25 games into the 2019 season and replaced him with associate head coach Jim Boylen.
The players reportedly disapproved, and a coup was staged during a practice in the spring of 2019. The relationship was repaired to finish the season, but it seemed like the team was always working against its coach.
Not a lot changed last season. The Bulls were a mediocre 22-43 before the season was postponed, and were not invited to the NBA Bubble for its resumption.
Still, there were signs the Bulls were making progress. They finished the season with a top-10 defense by defensive rating. And adding Billy Donovan as the head coach this offseason could tie things together and make them a sneaky pick to make the playoffs.
It is hard to say which direction the Bulls plan to go. But they have a budding star in Zach LaVine.
Zach LaVine’s contract (2 years, $39 million remaining) is slightly more expensive than Aaron Gordon’s. The two have held similar career arcs, even when disregarding their matchup in the 2016 All-Star Weekend Slam Dunk Contest.
LaVine has shown real promise offensively, particularly shooting the ball from outside, in his six seasons. The Magic would benefit from the additional spacing that his outside shot provides.
Thaddeus Young would also serve a crucial role for the Magic by both replacing Aaron Gordon and mentoring Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba. The Magic could use another veteran to lead the locker room alongside Nikola Vucevic.
Chicago Bulls
Aaron Gordon’s fit in Chicago is slightly redundant with Otto Porter Jr., whose contract nearly guarantees he will remain with the Bulls until it expires.
It would be asking a lot of sophomore Coby White to assume the main offensive duties in the backcourt with LaVine gone.
Terrence Ross could fit into any roster on any team. The league has seemingly unlimited affection for long, athletic wings that have shown they can shoot efficiently from outside.
His offensive game does not replace LaVine’s, so the Bulls would be betting on Gordon assuming the lead offensive role alongside Porter.
That does not seem likely. The Bulls are probably going to try to see if LaVine plus their young core which will include the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft can make them a surprise playoff entrant.
This deal leaves too many what-ifs and questions to make sense for Chicago. (Counter: the Bulls have attempted wackier roster configurations in the past.)
For Orlando, it would be difficult to part with two cornerstone players that know the system and the culture the Magic have tried to commit.
But ultimately this will be the decision the organization will have justify if they do decide to let Gordon go.