Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 40: The winds of change are near

The Orlando Magic’s season is right around the corner. There are a lot of questions to answer as the team’s future starts to come into some focus.

The NBA’s offseason has seemed longer than usual. Probably in part because we had an offseason’s worth of time between the the stop of the season and March and the league’s resumption of the season in late July at the campus at Disney.

The end of the playoffs last month gave way quickly the mystery of when the 2021 season would begin. It still does not seem 100-percent clear when that will be — the owners pushing to get things started by Christmas while the players seem to prefer a Martin Luther King Day start.

Regardless of when the league tips off once again, the league will have an expedited offseason.

The NBA Draft will take place on Nov. 18. From there, free agency is expected to start after Thanksgiving near Dec. 1. And training camp is likely to begin only a week or two after that.

Things are going to come together quickly for teams. All those well-laid plans that have been throught about and considered since the season originally went on hiatus in March are going to have to come together very quickly now.

For the Orlando Magic, there has been a lot to stew on since the team came from home from the Disney Campus in August.

The team once again made the Playoffs — comfortably this time — but had a worse record. That has led to whispers that the team has reached its ceiling as a group. And there might be something to that. There is enough to get back to the postseason again. But perhaps not enough to advance much further.

And now with Jonathan Isaac out for the entire 2021 season, the Magic’s future and long-term hopes are put somewhat on hold. The team will not be the full team it could or wants to be in 2021.

This seems like the time then to prepare for the future. Even then, it would probably still be time for the Magic to look ahead to their future and start to build their team for its future.

It feels like change is in the offing for Orlando. At some point, it will have to turn the corner and build for something more than a first-round cameo. That time might very well be during this hurried offseason.

There is a lot to consider. And the Magic have to get a lot of key decisions right to set up their long-term future.

So let’s start answering some of those questions. It is time for the latest edition of the Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag. Let’s dive in and see if we can find some answer to the big questions the Magic face.

Among the reasons some fans feel the Orlando Magic could reset their table a little bit this season is that they are getting set to make two major investments in the team. The kind of investments that will actually lock the team into a certain path for a long time.

This could be the Magic’s last chance to significantly shift the roster to accentuate and support those players.

Orlando’s “core” players appear to be around Jeff Weltman’s biggest acquisitions — draft picks Jonathan Isaac, Mohamed Bamba and Chuma Okeke and trade acquisition Markelle Fultz. These are the players the Magic want to build around most right now. And the team needs to work to put them in the best position to succeed.

That means preparing to invest in them too. In Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz’s case, the time to make a major investment in them has arrived this summer.

The question is about Fultz, but it is important to address Isaac here too. Both players do not have clear-cut cases for what the Magic should do and how they should proceed. But it still seems like a safe bet the Magic will push forward with both when the time comes.

With Isaac, the decision to invest is made difficult by the fact Isaac will have played only one full season of his four years under his rookie contract. At this point, though, if the Magic are committed to bringing him back, they should try to get something done before the season — as a sign of good faith and belief, allowing Isaac to rehab without concern over his contract status.

I would try to get Isaac to take a deal in the $17 million per year range. Something similar to what Evan Fournier got. It certainly is not what he would have gotten had he been healthy enough to play, but a four-year deal would give him security and show belief.

Fultz’s question is a much different one.

Unless Orlando is certain of what he can be and the growth he will show in the 2021 season, the team is probably better off (again as a sign of good faith) keeping an open dialogue with Fultz and letting his 2021 season set his market.

I do not suspect Fultz would take meetings with other teams or get an offer sheet that would hamper the Magic’s cap sheet. The way Jeff Weltman seems to work, he will be pretty up front with Fultz and his camp about their intentions and take care of him if he is truly a part of the team’s plans.

Fultz certainly should turn down any extension talk before the season, hoping to prove his true value over the course of the season. That could easily see him bump up from around a $10-12 million per year salary to north of $15 million.

I think we all sense change is coming to the Orlando Magic. The franchise has seemingly hit a ceiling. And even if it has not, the team does not seem to have a clear path to a championship.

At this point, Nikola Vucevic is an All-Star. But one on the periphery.

He is not someone who will make a major impact on winning at the highest level. He is a nice player who puts up numbers. But he is not a championship centerpiece.

Otherwise, the Magic have a lot of really nice players. Evan Fournier has proven himself a capable shooter, but not a consistent or high-level secondary scorer or primary perimeter player.

Aaron Gordon is still the biggest mystery in the league it seems. He shows flashes of his versatility and potential and then he goes through fits of playing too much hero ball and inconsistency. At 25 years old though, it is difficult to give up on him completely.

But obviously, there are still a lot of questions. It does not seem like this team can do a whole lot more. Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic are good, but they are not about to make significant jumps in their game.

Aaron Gordon is really the only one who can make a giant leap. But everyone has waited years for it to happen.

It is very clear the Magic need to make some change. And really no one outside of the team’s young’ish core of Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz and probably Mohamed Bamba and Chuma Okeke should be off the table.

I do not know exactly what the Magic should do. But I do believe they should be open to everything. And they need to explore every avenue.

What is more important however is the Magic have an understanding of the kind of players and the kind of skills they are looking to add. They need to make this team look like the team they ultimately want it to be.

If that is an amorphous, long positionally versatile team, they need to go find players that fit this mold and support the players they ultimately want to grow with.

They cannot trade players simply to trade them. It cannot be a, “We need to trade Evan Fournier or Aaron Gordon simply to signify some change.” The acquisition needs to serve and fit some purpose for the team.

I cannot sit here and say exactly what that player is or who the Magic should trade. I would expect them to trade at least one starter and to continue to be active in trade talks heading toward the trade deadline — especially if the bottom falls out this season in any way or the team does not make progress or maintain their spot.

But the Magic need to start building the team they ultimately want to become. And any move they make needs to be done with this in mind.

It is still really hard to sense which direction the Magic ultimately want to go. It does not feel like they have a true centerpiece player to build around. They have to try to find that or put themselves in a better position to find one and grow into the team they want to be.

I have written a lot about how the Orlando Magic are building somewhat similarly to the Miami Heat.

The Heat were in a really bad spot financially two years ago. They did not have a defining star. They had a lot of bloated long-term contracts. And they had few prospects to improve or even count on a playoff spot consistently.

Suddenly everything seemed to click for them. They drafted Bam Adebayo and they seemed to fit their culture perfectly. They got Jimmy Butler to agree to a sign-and-trade. They boosted veterans like Goran Dragic to hold things steady. And on and on and on.

The Heat culture is a very real thing. Miami does a good job identifying players who fit their style and their ethos. And that has helped them recover and respond quickly. So too has Pat Riley.

The Magic are not the Heat. They will have to take a risk somewhere and convince someone their program is the one to grow in and be successful in. But they are undertaking the same grow-from-the-middle plan.

But from a playing perspective, it is hard to say the Magic are that similar to the Heat. While the building philosophy might be the same, the playing philosophy is not. Certainly not right now.

The Heat like tough-nosed defensive teams too. But they seek guys with a chip on their shoulder who have something to prove. They love guys who have something to prove and want to prove you wrong.

They have done a good job adding shooting in the process too, banking on players who play dogged defense and commit to a high-motion offense that spreads the floor with shooting.

But the two teams are not very similar in the type of players they have. I would not consider Jonathan Isaac as the same kind of players as Bam Adebayo. Isaac is a perimeter player and not really a center in the way Adebayo is.

Adebayo is a center who gained playmaking abilities. He is like Nikola Vucevic . . . if Vucevic could fly to the rim and protect the paint better. They are obviously not the same kind of player — Nikola Vucevic is a playmaking center in the same way that Nikola Jokic is (not as good), but is part of a new wave of playmaking centers that includes Bam Adebayo.

The Magic really should use players like Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon like Andrei Kirilenko. I see a lot of Kirilenko and Isaac. Both are defensive monsters who could guard every position and provide offense with some pull-up shooting and driving to the basket.

I think that is the best comparison for Isaac. Gordon could get there, although he does not have the outright length that Kirilenko had. Simply, neither player is the sort of rim protector or traditional center that Adebayo is.

Really, and I bang on this point a ton, teams cannot copy each other’s rebuilds. They might walk the same path. But they have to carve out their own team and their own identity and stick to those philosophies.

The debate between need and best player available is one that is long and full of good arguments for both sides. I think drafting for need is where a team leans if they are competing for something real and need players who will add something to the team immediately. Drafting best available is the path when a team is rebuilding.

The Magic have been and are clearly still in the middle. They are still trying to figure out their path forward.

People might hate me for arguing this, but the Magic are still somewhat in the beginning of their rebuilding phase. They are still collecting the actual players they want to build around. They just also have the philosophy that players develop best in winning environments and they have players good enough to buoy them in the weakened Eastern Conference.

Has drafting best player available all the time failed? Yes and no.

The real goal in any draft is to get a player who can contribute and grow. In that sense, taking the best player available regardless of need is always the right choice.

By taking the best player available, a team gives itself the best chance to hit on a star. Or at least hit on a player who will make a big impact on the team.

The bottom line is that teams have to draft well. They need to get players that will contribute and impact the team. The best way to do that is to take the best player on your board.

Whether the Magic have accomplished this through Jonathan Isaac, Mohamed Bamba and Chuma Okeke is certainly something up for debate. Jeff Weltman’s draft record is a bit spotty in some places. But Isaac has been a productive and potentially elite player, when healthy. And Bamba has shown positive signs even if he has a long way to go.

The bigger question, and perhaps the issue with always drafting best player available, is how everything fits together. And yes, the Magic have to start considering fit in this bigger picture. At least with the players they want to keep.

Drafting another long-armed forward? That is not a good idea. How are Okeke and Isaac supposed to develop or figure out if they can play together with another young wing demanding minutes too?

If the team drafts a guard to backup Evan Fournier for a year, that is fine. Growing players off the bench and putting them in small roles that they can succeed in is a fine way to develop. There are ways to make players fit behind veterans waiting in the wings.

But what the Magic have to do is start to find ways to make those long-term players fit together. They have to pick players that are the best on the board and can possibly fit in with the players this team truly cares about.

Right now, the fit is unclear for its potential. But the Magic are still in something of a talent collection phase. Yes, they have won enough to make the Playoffs twice. But this is not the final product and not the final answer.

This team is still rebuilding.

That does mean the team should explore trading up. Most likely, the right deal has not come around for them to do so — whether that is because the player was not there or they were hesitant to give up young players on their roster.

The expectation for this team is to make the playoffs. Even without Jonathan Isaac.

Everyone talks about culture and accountability in a franchise, it starts with building a baseline expectation. This is a franchise and a team that should expect nothing less than a postseason appearance.

That is not the end of the journey. That does not define success. But the Orlando Magic should be at a stage where they believe they have a playoff team every time they step on the floor. At least with this group they have assembled.

Orlando Magic

After all, the Magic went 15-19 before Jonathan Isaac’s injury in January and 15-16 until the season went on hold. As good as Isaac is, the Magic were not that much better or worse without him — although the Magic’s defensive numbers slipped and were slipping before Isaac’s injury.

That is not to say the Magic should commit or believe this group is the answer for the long-term or that the Magic should not prepare for changes in the near-term.

But unless the team does a complete overhaul, this team should believe it can make the playoffs. Yes, teams beneath them will get better. But last year was also a “bad” year for Orlando. Why wouldn’t the Magic get better too?

But a soft reset is definitely something possible too. The Magic should not be selling out to save their playoff spot. They should be trying to build their position for the future and the team they want to be.

I think the Magic will enter the 2021 season trying to make the playoffs with whatever group they come in with — likely with some cosmetic changes, but nothing significant. But if things go wrong quickly in 2021, I think they will look to reset a little more fully and start to sell off pieces.

But the Magic are going to enter the season trying to make the playoffs. That should be the standard and the expectation.

It is a good thing we were disappointed with this season. It is a good thing to be disappointed at being just the 7- or 8-seed. But the baseline expectation for this team is the playoffs. Even if they do not make it this time around.

This is a tough one. It does feel like Aaron Gordon is the most tradeable asset on the team.

Even after a poor season, Gordon still has enough potential that somebody can talk themselves into him. He is still 25 years old and has shown flashes of brilliance. Some team could probably say that a new team and a new role could unlock whatever potential is left with the Magic.

But Orlando is in a tricky spot too.

With Jonathan Isaac out for the year, losing Aaron Gordon without getting back a power forward makes the playoffs much more difficult. A lot of the assumptions we are making comes from the belief the Magic’s main goal is to make the playoffs.

That will make trading Gordon more difficult. And it is part of the consideration.

Still, Orlando has to start thinking about its future. And if the team does not believe Gordon and Isaac pair well together, then the inevitable is going to happen and the Magic should consider moving on even if it means sacrificing the 2021 season in some way.

Orlando should still only trade Gordon if it is a package the team likes and supports the team’s future. There is no pressure for the Magic to trade Gordon now with two years left on his deal.

The odds are probably close to 50/50 that the Magic trade Gordon. He is simply the odd man out in the lineup and perhaps the team’s most valuable trade chip. The Magic can probably still extract the most value from Gordon and hold the ship steady otherwise.

Gordon though still has a chance to map out his future. This is a big year for him. And if he stays with the team, a big season from him will go a long way to setting up his entire future in the league.

Still, a trade is iffy. It carries risk. The Magic will have to make sure they make the right move.

Thanks everyone for the questions. We will try to be back with another mailbag before the season begins or shortly after it begins again. You can always drop us a line on Twitter @omagicdaily or by e-mail at omagicdaily@gmail.com.