Looking back at the three years of drafts from Jeff Weltman and the Orlando Magic reveals a type and a solid track record to find players who contribute.
For any small-market or rebuilding team like the Orlando Magic, the draft is at the heart of everything they do.
Not every team is the Los Angeles Lakers or Miami Heat where they can camp out and wait for free agents to fall into their laps. Even the Boston Celtics, a big free-agent player, have built the core of their team largely through the draft.
The free-agent piece is the final piece of the puzzle, not the first piece. That was perhaps the backward way the Magic tried to build in 2000 after signing Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill. But that era of Magic basketball died because the team selected Steven Hunter, Jeryl Sasser and Reece Gaines.
As you may recall, in Rookie of the Year Mike Miller‘s second year, the Magic rose to fifth in the Eastern Conference. But they traded him in year three. Better drafting might have helped save that era of Magic basketball.
Then again, Orlando made one of its best draft decisions ever at the end of that era when the team picked Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor.
Every team in every draft is going to have some pick they regret. There are inevitably some players who slip through the cracks, are late bloomers or find the exact right situation to make the most of their talents. Different pressures and different development plans are so critical in the growth of young players.
The Magic are in a bit of a tricky spot and their next steps will be vital.
The team has already established itself as a playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. But it is still looking for that next step to get into true contention — doing something more than getting to the first round and bowing out without much of a fight.
To do that with the limited cap room the Magic have, they will need to make shrewd trades that help young players on the roster grow within their roles and improve the team overall. But it will still be vital for the team to get the most out of the draft — whether it is by trade or not.
Over at FanSided, the network has tasked us site experts to re-draft the 2017 Draft (Jeff Weltman’s first with the Magic).
As things shook out, I ended up taking Jonathan Isaac with the sixth overall pick once again. Even though three of the players taken ahead of him in our redraft were actually drafted after Jonathan Isaac, I still felt good about drafting him ahead of the players beneath him.
Drafting is so important to everything the Magic are doing. It feels like it is time to re-evaluate the Magic and how they have done with their draft picks on their current roster, especially looking at the picks Weltman made.
The point here is not to say the Magic should have picked this player or that player. The point is to say whether the Magic got appropriate value from the player they selected and whether that picked has worked out well. At least to the best we can for the moment.
Jonathan Isaac (6th pick, 2017)
The debate it seemed, back in 2017 when the Orlando Magic selected sixth in the NBA Draft was whether to go with the promising young forward from the Florida State Seminoles, a player who was intriguing for his physical gifts but still fairly raw as far as usable NBA skills, or go with the more proven scorer and driver.
Fans still seem to have some fascination with Dennis Smith Jr., a guy who dominated as a scorer with the NC State Wolfpack and seemed to be a safe bet to be the kind of scoring point guard that has come to dominate the league.
When the Magic picked Isaac, it was not a complete surprise. Isaac’s talent was undeniable. It was just whether the Magic would have the patience to wait on him to develop and grow. And, secondarily, how he would fit alongside Aaron Gordon.
There are still questions about where Isaac fits and what he ultimately becomes. But if the choice was between Isaac and Smith still, Isaac is now the clear choice.
Smith has had his big moments, but he has struggled to show consistency, averaging 12.5 points per game on 40.0-percent shooting. He has been shuttled from the Dallas Mavericks, who would pick Luka Doncic a year later, taking Dennis Smith off the ball, to the New York Knicks. In New York, Smith has struggled to do more than just put up stats on a bad team.
Isaac does not have the same statistical profile. He has scored less at 9.3 points per game for his career on 43.2-percent shooting.
But more importantly, it was clear from the moment Isaac stepped on the floor he could make a positive impact defensively.
Even though injury took out most of his rookie season, the Magic were still at their best defensively with Isaac on the floor. And it did not take stats to understand that. Isaac made defensive plays that were far more advanced than his age would suggest.
Orlando Magic
His second year, he proved an integral part of a playoff roster and his offense has continued to grow. This year, he was on track to be top five in the league in blocks and in the top 20 in steals (leading the league in “stocks”). He was not taking himself out of position either as he was one of the best defensive playmakers in the league.
Isaac already might be an all-defensive team player. That is impressive in three years. He may not have the counting stats as some of his peers, but he is clearly one of the best players in the draft class.
Among his draft class, Isaac is ranked 15th in win shares, 12th in Box Plus-Minus and 12th in VORP, according to Basketball-Reference. He comes in behind interesting alternate choices in Bam Adebayo, John Collins and, of course, Donovan Mitchell.
Was Isaac the best choice for the Magic at 6th?
With the information available and looking at where players were mocked, no one should blame the Magic too much for missing on any other players — Adebayo and Mitchell are probably the more interesting alternate picks with both reaching the All-Star team already.
Isaac has made Collins’ life miserable when they get matched up together. And Isaac’s value is measured by more than statistics.
Isaac was always going to take some time to develop. And his injuries — a sprained ankle in 2018 and a severely sprained knee in 2020 — have kept him out and slowed his development.
Some patience is still obviously needed with Isaac. It seems like the Magic made the right decision (in our 2017 re-draft on FanSided, I ended up taking Smith with the 25th pick, if you must know).
And it seems like they got good value.
Mohamed Bamba (6th pick, 2018)
At one point in high school, Mohamed Bamba was considered a cannot-miss prospect. He was the top guy on mock drafts and the top guy in recruiting rankings (he ultimately finished fourth). A mobile center with long arms and a penchant for blocking shots seemed to have a lot of value.
The NBA changed dramatically even in the year Mohamed Bamba spent with the Texas Longhorns. And perhaps he proved himself to be more of a project than the initial high school recruiting rankings made everyone believe. Bamba needed a lot of work.
It is incredibly unfair to evaluate Bamba before he even finishes his second season. The Magic drafted him as a project. perhaps they believed they would be able to push him into the starting lineup quicker and Nikola Vucevic’s sudden All-Star turn slowed those plans.
That could end up being a bit fortuitous. Bamba has shown progress and some smarts as he has gotten more NBA time. But he is still a long way from being ready for a starter’s role.
Bamba is averaging 5.8 points per game, 5.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game in his career. The shot-blocking at least is as advertised from the young big man.
Admittedly, he is still regaining full strength from a leg injury that cost him the second half of his rookie season. It has indeed been a slow progression for Bamba with even his shot becoming inconsistent.
Centers take longer to get acclimated to the NBA. And that is certainly the case for someone like Bamba. Especially because he still has to mature physically.
More from Analysis
- 2023 Orlando Magic Playoff Lessons: Philadelphia 76ers can’t seem to avoid conflict
- Orlando Magic FIBA World Cup: Franz Wagner can be a star if he takes it
- Orlando Magic are going to find out who they are in 2024
- 2024 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Moe Wagner is the spark off of the bench
- NBA 2K Ratings represent Orlando Magic’s hope and skepticism
If we are taking a snapshot of the league today, then Bamba certainly would not be the sixth pick. Among the 2018 Draft class, he ranks 13th in his draft class in win shares, 11th in box plus-minus and 11th in VORP, according to Basketball-Reference.
Statistically, at least, it seems he is in a similar boat to Jonathan Isaac (the sixth pick the year before). Anecdotally, Isaac’s impact seems much clearer. But this is at least a silver lining to Bamba.
The notable players taken after Mohamed Bamba that are ahead of him on those charts are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell Robinson.
There is certainly an argument to be made that Orlando should have one after a combo guard with length like Gilgeous-Alexander. He would seemingly fit perfectly into what the Magic are trying to do and would fit the style of play that the Magic’s management seems to prefer.
Robinson is a more interesting case. As a fellow center, he has come in as an equally adept shot blocker and made an impact. But even on the New York Knicks, they have struggled to find the best way to use him. Maybe in a more structured environment, his impact would be more pronounced. Or maybe it is the freedom and lack of pressure in New York that has allowed him to accumulate stats.
It seems the Magic did not miss as badly as it would seem on Bamba. The 2018 draft turned out not to be a great one outside of Luka Doncic and Trae Young — a separate argument for Magic fans entirely.
Drafting even Gilgeous-Alexander at the sixth pick would have been an extreme reach with the information at the time.
It would seem the Magic need to keep being patient with Bamba and see if he can add the strength and grow into a better player within the class.
Chuma Okeke
The Orlando Magic surprised just about everyone drafting Chuma Okeke with the 16th overall pick in last year’s draft. A lot of people — myself included — did not really have him on the radar.
Especially because the Magic had limited options to add to the team, I believed Orlando needed to add a player in the draft who could contribute immediately and fill a role. That had us focusing on other players and not a guy like Chuma Okeke who was coming off a torn ACL.
Jeff Weltman, however, seems to have made it clear that he views the draft as a place to invest in talent, not a place to cash in. They are going to take the best player on their board and give that player the time and space to grow at his pace.
I would expect as Orlando approaches the 2020 Draft, the team will be open to picking a player even at a position that does not have an apparent need and be willing to let that player develop at his pace — even if that means spending a lot of time with the Lakeland Magic.
That was the approach the Toronto Raptors took with a lot of their players. And they have become something of a development juggernaut.
Okeke is definitely an interesting player to develop and grow. He is a versatile forward who showed the potential to hit from the outside and defend at a high level.
The statistical models a lot of draft experts have absolutely loved Okeke and believe he was a steal in the draft at No. 16.
To be real, the odds of a No. 16 pick becoming an All-Star are relatively small — although not impossible. That is not what the Magic want from him.
More from Orlando Magic Daily
- 2023 Orlando Magic Playoff Lessons: Philadelphia 76ers can’t seem to avoid conflict
- 5 worst starters of the Orlando Magic’s Shaquille O’Neal era
- Orlando Magic FIBA World Cup: Franz Wagner can be a star if he takes it
- Orlando Magic are going to find out who they are in 2024
- 2024 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Moe Wagner is the spark off of the bench
Certainly for his rookie year, they are expecting him to be able to fill a role in the rotation, although perhaps there might still be a fight to get him minutes and a chance he spends some time in the G-League to stay fresh and get re-acclimated to playing basketball again.
What should the Magic realistically expect? Who are the best comps for him within his class?
The players currently 16th in (or thereabouts) in win shares, box plus-minus and VORP, according to Basketball-Reference, are Goga Bitadze, Nassir Little, Tyler Herro (with a -2.3 box plus-minus) and Allen Smailagic. Not exactly a murderer’s row of prospects.
It is everyone’s rookie year, so these still feel like relatively small sample sizes.
Little has struggled to break into the rotation for the Portland Trail Blazers. Bitadze and Herro have been inconsistent but have played roles for their playoff-bound teams. Smailagic has come on strong during the New Orleans Pelicans’ tear toward the postseason.
If Okeke becomes a reliable role player — even like someone like Herro — the Magic would be very happy with his rookie year.
The players in his class that are probably most comparable are players like Nassir Little and Matisse Thybulle (who has really outperformed his draft spot for the Philadelphia 76ers).
Okeke could nestle in somewhere between those two. And that would make him a useful role player next year.
Matisse Thybulle or perhaps Brandon Clarke seems to be the biggest potential misses for the Magic at No. 16. But Okeke needs his chance to play and prove himself before we can say that with any certainty.
Second Round Picks
For any rebuilding team, second-round picks end up playing bigger roles. They are added young assets who typically get a chance. For a team like the Magic who need to find cheap talent wherever they can get it, these are not picks to be wasted.
If there is an area where Jeff Weltman has earned some criticism for his drafting it has been in devaluing some of his late picks — trading the No. 25 pick for nothing with a productive player like Kyle Kuzma on the board and taking similar players with his second-round picks.
Those are small arguments to be had though. Nothing too serious or threatening to his job. Clearly Weltman has not come out with the absolute best outcomes in his draft, but he has drafted well.
Finding talent in the second round is vital though for a team like Orlando. And it will be again as Orlando looks to make the most of its pick in this year’s draft.
Wesley Iwundu has clearly outperformed what you might expect from the 33rd pick.
A pick that high in the second round is still essentially a first-round talented player. Wesley Iwundu was seen as a bit of a reach, but if the Magic’s budding style of taking a player with length and defensive chops.
He made an impact pretty immediately as a solid bench defender. His ability to develop and hit a 3-point shot was key int he Magic’s run to the playoffs last year.
Among his draft class, Iwundu is 20th in win shares, 39th in box plus-minus and 50th in VORP. In some sense, Iwundu has outplayed his draft position. In others, he has not.
With Iwundu entering restricted free agency this offseason and his inability to carve out a certain space in the rotation — the Magic acquiring James Ennis at the trade deadline was a pretty big statement on this front — it does not look like Orlando plans to retain its second-round pick.
Melvin Frazier has played virtually no minutes. It is already looking like he could be on his way out with the Magic needing to create roster space both for Chuma Okeke and whomever they pick in the upcoming 2020 NBA Draft.
That is an opportunity wasted no doubt. Melvin Frazier played essentially the same position and had the same physical profile as Iwundu. Even if Frazier was the best player on the Magic’s board that year, they should have seen how difficult it would have been for him to get minutes if Iwundu panned out.
Iwundu certainly panned out better than you would expect for a player taken with the 33rd pick. But he was not a home-run pick either. There may not have been a home-run pick at that spot, however.
Holdovers
Just for comparison’s sake and to get a sense of just how much value the Magic have or have not gotten from the Draft. I thought I would do the same draft class comparisons to players on the Magic’s roster who were on the team during their rookie contracts that were not outright selected by Jeff Weltman.
Nikola Vucevic (16th pick, 2011)
It took Nikola Vucevic a little while to get himself going and become a NBA All-Star player. There have been some frustrations on the road there. But if there is a player who proves you should not judge someone by their rookie year, it is Vucevic.
Vucevic barely played as a rookie on the playoff-bound Philadelphia 76ers. He came too Orlando and got an opportunity, becoming a dependable double-double for nearly a decade now
Among his draft class, Vucevic ranks sixth in win shares and box plus-minus and fifth in VORP. The only player selected after him that ranks higher is Jimmy Butler. In what turned out to be a great 2011 Draft class, Vucevic is one of the shining stars and a bargain at No. 16.
Evan Fournier (20th pick, 2012)
Similar to Nikola Vucevic, the Orlando Magic cashed in a veteran player to get a young player to add to their collection to start the rebuild. Nobody really knew what to expect from Evan Fournier because he too played very little for a playoff-bound Denver Nuggets team. He just needed the opportunity to blossom.
And like Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier flourished with the opportunity. Say what you will about his weaknesses and shortcomings, but the Magic have gotten a lot from a player who was selected that late in the draft. Like Vucevic, the Magic probably asked too much of Fournier.
Among his draft class, Fournier ranks ninth in win shares, 19th in box plus-minus and 16th in VORP. He is behind Terrence Ross in box plus-minus and VORP. The two biggest players selected after Evan Fournier are Khris Middleton and Will Barton. But still, Fournier is a solid pick at No. 20 despite his inconsistency throughout his career. And he has far outdrawn his draft position.
Aaron Gordon (4th pick, 2014)
In some ways, the Orlando Magic tanked two years to get to the 2014 Draft. And so, after striking out in the Lottery, Aaron Gordon was the big prize from two years of rebuilding. That is unfair to put on Gordon. But Gordon has struggled to live up to his billing.
Orlando botched his early development as injuries overtook him in his first two years. Then they tried to move him to the small forward with a clogged lane — as opposed to another versatile forward like, say, Tobias Harris — before he had the skills to attempt playing that spot.
Gordon has been a disappointment in a lot of ways. Still, among his draft class, Gordon ranks sixth in win shares, 10th in box plus-minus and sixth in VORP.
It was not a good draft class with really only Joel Embiid stepping up among the top players. A second-round pick in Nikola Jokic and late first-round pick in Clint Capela take most of the statistical headlines in the class.
In a re-draft from Chad Ford, he picked Gordon 10th. The Magic probably have not gotten the expected return from a fourth pick, but Orlando still got a solid player nonetheless.
Markelle Fultz (1st pick, 2017)
Like with Chuma Okeke, it is almost unfair to compare Markelle Fultz to his draft class. Markelle Fultz simply has not played enough games to elicit a fair comparison. The injury that knocked him out for most of the first two years of his career makes him virtually a rookie this year.
While everyone has been very impressed with Fultz and his feel for the game to this point in the season, nobody is about to say he is “first overall pick” Markelle Fultz. He is not playing as he did in college. But he has still proven himself to be a solid player.
Compared to this year’s rookie class, his 2020 win shares (2.7) rank fourth behind Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant and Jaxson Hayes. His box plus-minus (-1.7) ranks 15th and his VORP (0.1) ranks eighth.
This is to say, Fultz is playing like a quality rookie contributor in his first year. In some metrics, he has been a big contributor statistically toward his team’s success. There are still a lot of questions about what Fultz can ultimately be, but this is a good sign.
Conclusion
With the Draft coming into some focus — whenever it might be held — and the understanding the Orlando Magic will have to get something of value out of it, there should be some confidence the Magic can at least hit their weight.
With every draft pick the Magic have made to this point, they have grabbed a player who can contribute at some level. And with where they are likely picking at No. 15 or No. 16 in the draft, they should be able to find a player who can contribute as a rotation player even as a rookie.
There will surely be ups and downs and the Magic should not rely wholly on that player. Rookies need time to acclimate and get used to the NBA. Even the most successful rookies have struggles throughout their first run through the season.
Jeff Weltman has received some criticism for his drafting. Especially his late-first and second-round picks have not maximized the talent available or the spot the team was picking. There have been a few missteps and lost opportunities from passing on picks or selecting similar players with their draft picks.
As with every team, there have been some “misses” as far as finding players drafted later panning out much better than expected.
But for the players the Magic have drafted, they have typically found useful players who have contributed. And honestly contributed fairly quickly.
Even Mohamed Bamba has made positive contributions to the team — most fans I talk to would agree Bamba has earned more minutes, although they are difficult to find behind Nikola Vucevic.
This is a solid tenet of drafting. The Magic have found a philosophy drafting players they like — a type of player and an approach to developing players — and it has largely benefited them. This is good drafting.
But it is not home-run drafting. Nobody would ask the Magic to take the chance on Donovan Mitchell at No. 6. That would have been viewed as crazy at the time. But the missed opportunity is there.
And while the Magic and their fans are very excited for Jonathan Isaac. He does not have star written all over him quite yet.
Especially on offense, the Magic are still searching for that star.
That is not so easy to find and maybe there was no one to take that was evident that fit the Magic’s overall philosophy where they were picking. But that is still the big thing missing — a home-run pick.
Overall, it seems fans should be able to trust Weltman to make solid picks. But everyone is waiting for the pick he hits out of the park to justify some of the other roster decisions the Magic have made the last three years.