Orlando Magic’s struggle to hold onto leads holding team back

The Data

Source

Basketball Reference’s Team Event Finder provided the data. This resource can be calibrated to identify games where the Magic attempted a field goal attempt holding any lead.

It is important to note the data is imperfect. There may be some moments where the Magic held a 10-point lead and did not attempt a shot and, as a result, some games may be missed. Nevertheless, for purposes of exploring how tenuous Magic leads can be, the provided data is sufficient.

Methodology

The issue here is lost leads, so instead of counting games where the Magic held leads, the leads themselves are counted.

For what it is worth, the relevant leads occurred in 27 of the Magic’s 43 games. The advantages could come at any point in the game without regard for the ends of quarters or halves.

Orlando Magic

“Big leads” break down in three categories: 10-14 points, 15-19 points, and 20 or more.

The methodology tries to address situations where Orlando held multiple big leads in a single game too. For example, in the season opener, Orlando held a 20-point lead in the second quarter before the Cleveland Cavaliers cut it down to five in the third quarter. Then Orlando built a 16-point advantage with 5:21 left in the game. Orlando held on to win.

In this post, this game would count as one lost lead of 20 or more points and one held lead of 15-19 points (while a 16-point comeback with 5:21 is improbable, it remains doable).

What constitutes a “comeback” is simply coming within five points. It is certainly a debatable definition, but when a team cuts a big lead to five or fewer, it’s safe to say a lot went wrong for Orlando, and the opposition feels it has a chance to steal a victory even if they ultimately come up short. Nevertheless, leads-turned-deficits are identified as well.

As for measuring the average elapsed game time, the methodology measures from the earliest part of the game where Orlando held its biggest lead until the opposition completely cut the deficit to five or fewer.

For example, in the third quarter, if Orlando held a 10-point lead with 10:00 left, pushed it to 14 with 8:00 remaining, the opponent cut the lead to seven, Orlando got the lead back out to 14 with 5:00 to go, then the opponent finally cut it to five with 3:00 left, the comeback duration would be measured as 5 minutes (i.e., from when Orlando first built a 14-point lead), not 2.

So how are the Magic faring? Let the fun begin.