Draft Pick Rankings
From Andy Kraus via e-mail
"We a have a lot of high to mid first round draft picks, including Chuma. If you added up all of our first round picks and compared them to all the other teams’ first round picks, how do we rank against the other teams? The ranking would like a golf score where lowest score is best. i.e. A number one pick like Fultz is the best score for a player. Interested to see if the teams with the best scores are the best teams in the league. And how the Magic rank."
I think this is an interesting idea. For whatever reason, I still get drawn into debates about the merits of tanking. If the Orlando Magic had lost this game (they tried), they would have gotten Luka Doncic. Nevermind, if the Magic had won three more games they would have been in the position to get the No. 2 pick.
The plain fact though is the draft is the best way to build a team but is never a guarantee for success. It takes good development, mining late-round picks for quality role players and managing the cap for the right free agents at the right moment.
The Magic’s current management group headed by Jeff Weltman has had a few high draft picks and made a big trade. Otherwise, the team has been mostly managing its assets and trying to forge a way forward. Their surprise playoff trip probably changed some of their calculus.
They deserve criticism for not being efficient with their late first-round picks. They traded one away that could have provided a valuable player. And their second-round picks have been relatively similar players. There is definitely still some work to do to shape this roster — and the big move still seems like it is on the horizon.
But let’s play this game as it might be interesting — or show that the person you pick is more important than the place that you pick him.
Using Andy’s method, the Magic get a score 279. That includes two undrafted players and seven players who were drafted in the top-10.
Still, it seems pretty high. Let’s compare to some other teams. Because it actually is pretty low.
The Eastern Conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks get a score of 446. They have only two top-10 picks on their roster — Brook Lopez and Dragan Bender. That should tell you that accumulating top picks is not as important as finding the right players and people.
Let’s do another team. The Magic are in a playoff battle chasing the Brooklyn Nets. Their current score is 469 with just two players picked in the top 10. And neither of them — Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant — are playing right now.
Yes, picking earlier and at the top of the draft should get you the best chance at the elite talent. There are always very good players at the top. But it should also be clear that draft position is not enough alone. Orlando has plenty of former top-10 picks on their team and a low “draft score” if you add up all the players and where they were picked.
The key is finding and developing the right players. And the draft is always an inexact science in the end.
Like cars, draft picks start to lose their value once you drive them off the lot. And a player has to be more than the number they were picked.