Orlando Magic: Four Players to potentially target in an Aaron Gordon trade
By Seth Arora
Target 3: DeAngelo Russell
Why Him?
The constant trade speculation surrounding D’Angelo Russell may largely be media-driven, as Golden State Warriors brass would prefer he stay and succeed with the team. Nevertheless, the team may seek to balance out their roster for a title run in 2021 when their star players are healthy again and avoid a crowded backcourt with two ball-dominant guards trying to find ways to coexist.
Why He Potentially Benefits Orlando
Russell can flat out score. He dominates the ball but his herky-jerky offensive style makes him a threat to score on every play. His floaters are odd things of wonder, released at uncommon points and at unpredictable moments that are difficult to defend. He also gets his teammates involved and is a willing passer.
Russell also does something the Orlando Magic sorely need: he makes open shots.
He also has shown a willingness to learn from the championship pedigree established in Golden State. There is a reason to wonder if some of his negative tendencies addressed below might not be as big of a factor.
Like Jrue Holiday, he would also stretch the defense out to the three-point line. D’Angelo Russell is also an experienced initiator of a pick-and-roll offense.
The Magic would also want to keep a talented player of Russell’s caliber around for the long-term. He is in the first season of a four-year max deal he signed this past offseason. If the Magic were able to orchestrate a trade for him, they would have another solidified piece for the future.
Why He Is a Risk
The big issue here is efficiency.
In all but one season, Russell has posted a negative net rating and a VORP (value over replacement player) 0.7 or lower.
There are a million numbers to support this, but sometimes simple works just as well: he is averaging 21.8 points per game on 18.2 attempts per game from the field, similar to last season. Even DeMar DeRozan, shooting essentially no threes, is arguably more efficient.
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Another issue is Russell’s style may play into one of Orlando’s worst tendencies currently on offense: its tendency to stagnate.
The ball sticks on one end of the court, leading to poor shot selection by a mediocre-or-worse shooter and, in general, a lost possession. Russell spends 25.2 percent of his possessions dribbling seven or more times, yet for players who do so at least that much, he is nearly dead last in effective field goal percentage on those possessions.
In short, he often holds onto the ball, and nothing great comes out of it. While his overall time of possession and dribbles per possession have improved from last season, he thrives when the ball is in his hands.
There are certainly more detailed dives into Russell’s play and offensive tendencies elsewhere on the Internet, but this is at least suggestive that looks may be deceiving. The Magic are desperate for a scorer, but a volume shooter who, even being a willing passer, may simply not be the answer.
All of this, of course, ignores Russell’s deficiencies on the defensive end.
He has never posted a defensive rating worse than 107.9 or a positive defensive box plus-minus. Opponents shoot 51.7 percent against him.
His overall defensive failings may be overblown, but he poses a similar issue to DeRozan: Would the potential offensive improvement offset the likely defensive deterioration?
Finally, the issue of his size (6-foot-4) pops up. If he were to slide between Markelle Fultz and Evan Fournier in the backcourt, issues similar to those addressed above regarding Holiday would arise.
The issue there is Holiday is a strong defender, which would help accommodate what Orlando would lose in size defensively. Russell is a questionable defender.