The Orlando Magic again fell as their shooting did them in. Orlando has had its chances to win early this season, but the shooting gap is tough to crack.
The Orlando Magic can work hard and run through their sets.
They know that the grind is what is going to carry them through and get them where they want to be in the long run of the season. And so they can run through their sets dutifully.
Buoyed by their best offensive performance through three quarters, it felt like the Magic had a little bit of swagger to their game entering the fourth quarter. But then the bottom fell out again.
Shot after shot went no good through the fourth quarter. Again, in a close game where Orlando had to make shots, the shots just would not go in.
The Orlando Magic again lost, this time 102-94 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The team failed to score 100 points and failed to get much of anything going when the game got tight. Orlando only had 15 points in the fourth quarter, derailing one of their better offensive efforts.
Once again, the team had a lead in the fourth quarter. The Magic have led in the fourth quarter in six of the team’s first seven games. They have had the opportunity to win games. And after the game, coach Steve Clifford praised his team’s effort. They are playing well enough to win.
If there is any solace in the team’s frustrating 2-5 start it is this. Orlando is knocking on the door to being a really good team with an elite defense. There is not a far bridge to cross.
Unfortunately, the bridge the team has to cross is the biggest and seemingly most simple one to get across. The one that is the most necessary to succeed.
And Orlando cannot get across that gap.
The Magic remain a frustrating offensive team solely because of their outside shooting. Orlando is getting good looks and executing well. The shots are not falling and the team is going to be struggling and fighting until they do.
It did not matter who was taking them Tuesday night. The Magic’s shot-making again betrayed them.
And it is coming from the most essential players. The guys the team trusts the most.
Nikola Vucevic got all his favored looks it seemed from the post. But his rhythm was off-kilter. He made only 4 of his 15 shots.
Nikola Vucevic is hitting on just 40.7 percent of his shots this season. Perhaps he is hanging around the perimeter too much, but even his hook shots and open 3-pointers are not falling.
Vucevic is scoring 0.71 points per possession on 2.4 post-ups per game this year, according to NBA.com. Last year, he scored 0.93 points per possession on 5.4 post-ups per game. That is a big difference not just in the amount of those opportunities as the drop in production.
Vucevic is making just 23.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers a year after he made 40.5 percent of those shots last year. This difference in percentage is everything for Vucevic.
The Magic’s fortunes are tied to their star player. Orlando is going to continue to run its offense through him — as the team should. The Magic should run their offense through their best player. He forces the defense to react to him. And he will do so even if he is missing shots.
But Orlando needs its star player to deliver.
Terrence Ross, too, has been extremely disappointing. He made only two of five shots in Tuesday’s game. He has struggled to find his rhythm this season, making only 28.2 percent of his shots. Teams are defending a whole lot different — as his five shot attempts in Tuesday’s game might suggest.
But Terrence Ross is missing wide-open shots too. Ross is hitting on 35.5 percent of his shots when the closest defender is four or more feet away on 5.2 such attempts per game. Last year, he was at 46.8 percent on 6.6 such attempts per game.
It is easy to see the difference in both usage and effectiveness.
Evan Fournier has faced many of the same problems. He missed all of his seven shots in Tuesday’s game. It was the kind of outlier game Evan Fournier still has. He should not be the team’s primary offensive attacker. Yet, that is the role the Magic have turned to him to do.
He is running a lot of pick and rolls — 5.1 possessions per game this year for 0.92 points per possession. Last year he ran 4.8 per game for 0.76 points per possession. Tuesday was a bit of an outlier for this season where Fournier has been the Magic’s most reliable offensive player.
But it is easy to see how quickly things fall apart for Fournier. He is still struggling to hit from the outside — 30.6 percent from beyond the arc and last night’s game dropped Fournier to last year’s 43.8 percent field goal percentage.
The outside shooting proved to be the difference in Tuesday’s game. Orlando made only 3 of its 22 3-point attempts in Tuesday’s game. Clifford said it is tough to make up a 27-point difference in 3-point shots — Oklahoma City made 12 from the outside.
The Magic are making only 26.8 percent of their 3-point shots this year. The team made 35.6 percent last year. That is not a strong number, but it is easy to see how even making two or three more 3-pointers could flip games this year.
That is the same for all these numbers and trends. The Magic are competing and have a chance to win despite all of this. Orlando does not have to do a whole lot more with its solid defensive play to win games.
Orlando Magic
That is a small comfort though. What the Magic are struggling with is the most basic and important thing a team has to do. The Magic have to make shots. It is extremely simple for them.
Yet, this problem feels a whole lot more complex. The Magic are getting their players good looks for the most part. The offense gets stuck on occasions, but the team is doing a good job moving the ball and working for open shots. Those open shots are not going down.
Without the ability to rely on making open shots, the team’s already thin margin for error gets smaller. Every turnover, every offensive rebound, every foul puts added pressure on the team.
Orlando is still looking for its level offensively. The team has to believe its players will return closer to their career averages. They cannot believe the brutal way this season has started is anywhere near the team’s level.
It is still too early to call this a “normal” for the Magic. But it is a struggle the team will battle all year. This is not a strong offensive team. There were hopes they could be a top-15 offense, but nobody was about to place this group in the top 10. They will go through ebbs and flows.
They are starting at a pretty bad low tide. Maybe that means a tsunami is on the way and the offense will overwhelm teams very soon.
That will not happen automatically of course. The Magic will have to work to get better execution and get better shots.
It will not take a whole lot for the team to put itself back in a winning position. The team should feel close to its best potential.
But the gap they have to cross is the widest and most important one to cross. Without solving this problem, the Magic are going to struggle to get results.