Orlando Magic will only go as far as their offense will take them
The Orlando Magic have established their defense in the first two games. But their offense is the early culprit for some uninspired play.
The frustration was written on the Orlando Magic’s face as the game drew to a close.
Evan Fournier came around a Nikola Vucevic screen and found some space to get an open look. The kind of shot that Evan Fournier can reliably make. And he fired. Never mind that an Atlanta Hawks defender hit him in the head as he contested the shot — no call. The basket was no good.
Fournier would spend the final two minutes trying to find his rhythm again. That continued the frustration. He would drive into the middle of the lane or get to the basket and get stonewalled.
Was this the best shot for the team? Maybe not. There was plenty of time left on the shot clock and the Hawks defense was scrambling to cover that pick and roll. But it was not a bad shot. A shot the Magic will need Fournier to make.
This time it was just no good.
The entire team could relate to Fournier’s struggles in the late stages of Saturday’s 103-99 loss to the Hawks. The Magic would get open looks and put themselves in position to score, but just could not find the bottom of the net. They started forcing play instead of keeping the ball moving.
All the things the Magic can sometimes get away with but cannot do popped up when the pressure started to boil late in the game. And that resulted in a loss.
What has become clear through two games is this Magic team will only go as far as its shooting and its offense can take them. And the margin for error for success is still very small. Deviating too far from what works for this team can lead to these frustrating results.
Even on the interior, Orlando was struggling.
The most notable play came at the end of the game. With Orlando down two, Nikola Vucevic sprang free underneath.
The Magic rotated the ball beautifully to create a good angle to enter the pass to the interior. Vucevic fumbled the pass and needed a moment to collect himself. That gave the Hawks the time to recover and Kevin Huerter — perhaps getting a lot of hand — blocked the shot.
Atlanta iced the game on Trae Young‘s banked-in 3-pointer. A shooter made a shot to close the game.
The old saying is the NBA is a make or miss league. The matter-of-fact way players seemed to discuss their defeat suggested this is how they viewed the game. Orlando shot 35.4 percent in the game — and in an odd quirk, no player for the Magic shot better than 50 percent — and the team still had a chance to win.
With the game close, the Magic simply could not hit shots. That is something the team can control and live with. It is entirely correctable.
But through two games — plus six preseason games — it is becoming much more clear what the parameters for success are. Orlando needs to stay attentive to its ball movement and look for the extra pass. Any kind of “hero ball” is going to create problems for a Magic offense that already struggles to create a consistent punch in the half-court.
It is already clear Orlando’s defense is good enough to keep the team in almost any game.
The Magic could still bear to be better on the glass — the Hawks had a 23.3 percent offensive rebound rate — and could clean up their ability to contain dribble penetration — Young especially did a good job beating the initial defense until the Magic opted to blitz his screens. But Orlando is getting stops and giving itself the chance to win games.
The difference for the Magic is on offense. Wins and losses, success and failure are going to come down to whether the team can hit shots and score. It is really that simple.
Through two games and a few days of the regular season, the Magic are 27th in the league with a 95.1 offensive rating. The team still has a positive net rating because of their killer defense — second in the league in the early season at 92.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.
But the team still has work to do obviously. And it is all about their shooting — the simplest action in the game.
Orlando is last in the league with a 42.7 percent effective field goal percentage. The Magic are simply not making shots.
These are all early-season numbers. The sample sizes are far too small to make any sweeping conclusions. The eye test certainly matters more.
Orlando’s offense has had spurts of strong play but has largely been stagnant. It is just as likely to go a long time without generating a ton of push or force. The Magic’s offense is doing enough to stay competitive. But the biggest force comes from the defense creating offensive opportunities.
And Orlando is missing the good shots it does get. According to NBA.com’s tracking statistics, the Magic are 29 for 85 (34.1 percent) on shots where the closest defender is more than four feet away, including 6 for 39 when the closest defender is more than six feet away.
Orlando Magic
Perhaps more tellingly, and encouragingly, 52 of the Magic’s 61 3-point field goal attempts have come with the closest defender more than four feet away. This suggests Orlando is moving to get open shots on the perimeter. They are just missing.
Missed shots should eventually go in. But Orlando still has work to do to clean things up. Orlando has to focus on movig the ball and getting the best shot — too often Saturday, Orlando settled for contested pull-up mid-range shots or failed to move the ball to the next open man.
Their transition play has been questionable. The team has driven into the paint and struggled to finish at the rim. Aaron Gordon especially has struggled to make from these close shots as he has tried to get inside the lane.
The Magic’s offense was always going to be a concern. The team was 22nd in the league in offensive rating last year. Coach Steve Clifford said a lot of his work in the offseason was trying to figure out a way to create more consistent offensive attacks. And part of that is having players win one on one matchups.
It is too early to draw conclusions after two games. The Magic have missed an inordinate amount of shots. They might like those looks and just have to stay confident with them, having the faith they will go down eventually. The numbers eventually even out.
Then again, the Magic never really had that moment in the preseason. They staked leads in those early preseason games thanks to transition points created from defensive stops. In the regular season, that has been when the Magic’s offense has looked most inspired.
Orlando’s defense looks like it is that good. The team will give itself a chance so long as it stays committed defensively. All Orlando really wants is that chance to win late.
But the Magic have to get themselves there on offense. They have to execute and make shots better late.
What is abundantly clear is the Magic are only going to go as far as their offense can take them.