When games get tight and the clock winds down, the Orlando Magic have turned to Evan Fournier. He has proved a solid late-game option.
France was holding on for dear life against Germany in their opening game of the FIBA World Cup on Sunday. They fed the ball to the player who was leading the team in scoring, but not someone who they usually turn to for creation.
Rudy Gobert set up the pick and roll and Evan Fournier began driving toward the baseline. He drew the bigger defender on him and then stepped back for a one-legged fadeaway. The shot gave France a four-point lead and iced the game.
It was a spectacular shot. For Orlando Magic fans, it was completely expected. This is what Evan Fournier has done for the Magic for several years.
This is what he did in an early-season game against the Cleveland Cavaliers when the Orlando Magic erased a late five-point deficit and Fournier pulled up for a jumper as the clock expired. Or as he did in December against the Detroit Pistons when he spun himself into space to hit a tough runner at the buzzer.
Fournier had a difficult shooting season all year — he hit just 5 of 15 shots in that game against the Cavaliers, for instance — but he still always seemed to rise to the big moment.
D.J. Augustin had the most famous clutch shot of the Magic’s season. Terrence Ross hit big shots throughout the year. But it is Fournier who seems to have the biggest clutch gene on the entire team.
And the numbers back that up.
It is notoriously hard to quantify clutch. Most importantly there is a definitional problem over what it means to be in a “clutch” situation. The Athletic’s Seth Partnow completed a study of clutch shots limited it to a look at possessions within three points in the final two minutes. That is as good as any other (the NBA’s clutch stats in its database defaults to within five points in the final five minutes).
Partnow notes a lot of statisticians have dismissed clutch statistics as too small a sample size to be significant. Still, these moments are important and it is important to diagnose them in some way.
Despite those small sample sizes, it is clear these late-game situations are played completely different. Coaches tend to turn to time-wasting possessions that end in one-on-one, mano-a-mano matchups. Shooting percentages predictably dip.
Close games remain pretty random. A team that is good at winning close games one year, may not be good the next year. If shooting 30 percent is good in clutch situations, that is a lot of missing.
The bottom line is good teams avoid close games more than they win them.
But, these games and moments have some incredible narrative and dramatic power. They may not matter much statistically, but they matter emotionally and can be the difference between a successful and disappointing season.
Even if teams end up roughly .500 in these situations — Orlando went 14-16 in games that were within three points in the final two minutes — they are still important. Being able to create and hit a tough shot late in the clock is vital.
It is undoubtedly one of the Magic’s key weaknesses that they lack one of these creators. Orlando finished 19th in the league with a -6.9 net rating in these “clutch” situations.
That lack of perimeter creation and improvisation was apparent in the playoffs. Once the Toronto Raptors eliminated D.J. Augustin’s ability to get into the paint, the team struggled to generate much offense.
Of course, Augustin had the one shining moment of the playoffs for the Magic.
But he was not the Magic’s most used option in these late-game situations. That was Fournier.
Fournier led the team with 32 points in 29 games played under clutch situations, making 11 of 20 shots and three of his nine 3-pointers. Fournier tallied only three total assists, but he was solid and consistent at this.
And it has been that way for years.
Fournier has scored 83 points in 74 clutch games, making 27 of 53 shots (50.9 percent) and 10 of 27 3-pointers (37.0 percent) in the last three years. Those are really strong numbers in situations that are usually not efficient.
And working in Fournier’s favor is he has the anecdotal moments that typically define a player as clutch — or not clutch.
Nikola Vucevic has decidedly a poor reputation late in games. It is tough to set up big men for late shots anyway. But Nikola Vucevic has struggled to dominate in these late moments.
Orlando Magic
Last year, Vucevic scored 24 points in those 29 games on 9-for-22 shooting (40.9 percent). That is obviously well below his season averages from last year.
Orlando did not turn to Vucevic often. In the past three years, Vucevic has scored 49 points in 60 games, shooting 17 for 37 (45.9 percent) from the floor with no 3-pointers made.
The other player Magic fans would count on for clutch moments was Terrence Ross. He made 22 points on 7-for-20 shooting (35.0 percent), hitting only 3 of his 12 3-pointers. The numbers last year did not quite meet Ross’ reputation as a shooter.
Noticeably absent from this list is Aaron Gordon.
It has only been a few years since Aaron Gordon has had significant offensive confidence and a bigger role on the team. But the Magic have not run things for him to score in these big moments.
Last year, Gordon scored only 12 points in 25 clutch games, making just 5 of 11 shots. That was quite simply not his role for the team.
Orlando relied heavily on Fournier, Vucevic and Ross in late-game situations. They took all the big shots almost exclusively.
That makes some sense since Vucevic was the team’s All-Star and Fournier and Ross were two of the team’s better shooters. They largely delivered for the team. But, then again, the results speak for themselves. Orlando was still a hair below .500 at 14-16 in these extremely clutch moments.
That is at least what you would expect.
Does having a strong finisher like Fournier mean the Magic can play with confidence late in games? It certainly means they have someone they can turn the ball to and get and take a good shot.
Fournier is someone, more than any other on the team, that they can trust to run off screens to take a quick shot or pull the ball back and run a pick and roll.
Whether that means they will get the stops they need to win these games is another question.
They at least know they have someone willing to take the hero shot.