Orlando Magic’s biggest fear should be the return to the mean

The Orlando Magic are expected to do big things this year. Their biggest fear is that career years turn back into average ones and they can’t fill the gaps.

The Orlando Magic’s 2019 run to the playoffs was a whirlwind adventure.

The team showed some hints of their potential through the early parts of the season. But it was not until late January when things really began to click. The team was able to recover from a 20-31 start to finish the season on the absolute tear that made them a playoff team.

It was a stunning run that saw the team step up specifically on defense. The team put everything together and the results followed.

Expectations are now set for the team to return to the playoffs. Few are seeing the Magic out of the playoffs. There seems to be more signs this team could be ready to climb the standings rather than fall out.

The team should at a bare minimum expect a return.

The biggest enemy to this return are injuries, of course. That is something no one can predict.

The other enemy could be something more difficult to predict. But also something the rest of the team could fill in and buffer.

Orlando last year got career seasons from several veterans.

Nikola Vucevic averaged a career-high in points and rebounds per game in becoming the team’s first All-Star in seven years. Terrence Ross became a bench flamethrower for the first time in his career, taking his quick shooting ability and bringing a level of consistency that eluded him throughout his career. And D.J. Augustin, ever up and down throughout his career, put together a second straight strong season leveling the team as the starting point guard.

All three of these players will prove vital for the team again. And with Orlando still seemingly having a small margin for error to achieve their goals, this could present a bit of a problem if their games fall off in any significant way.

Past performance is no predictor of future success. But everyone finds their level. And all three of these players played well above that in 2019.

Nikola Vucevic averaged a career-best 20.8 points per game, career-best 12.0 rebounds per game and career-best 3.8 assists per game in his age 28 season. Nikola Vucevic took to Steve Clifford’s coaching more than anyone and the team quickly started to revolve around his skills.

Vucevic has proven throughout his entire career that he can put up solid numbers. He will not lose double-double status any time soon. But the bigger question is whether he can maintain his defensive intensity and focus. He had undoubtedly his best defensive season in his career too.

The season was a tremendous outlier from much of his career.

Vucevic found a great fit with the right coach. But it is fair to wonder that if that was not the peak for Vucevic.

Predictive models like FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO sees Vucevic taking a potentially huge dropoff. But that is probably correcting for how much Vucevic rose. He would still be better at least under this (admittedly flawed) metric than he was to this point in his career.

But the question remains whether Vucevic can repeat this success. That is always the risk of venturing into new territory — the uncertainty of getting back.

The same concerns certainly could be shared with Terrence Ross, who proved a vital energy boost to this team.

Ross averaged a career-high 15.1 points per game and shot 38.3 percent from beyond the arc, the second-best mark of his career. More than anything, Ross showed a level of consistency that he had not shown for much of his career.

The Magic could rely on him on an almost nightly basis to shoot reliably. And on some nights to have that big night.

This was by far Ross’ best season in the same way it was by far Vucevic’s best season. And similarly, Ross in his age 27 season could see himself come back down to earth a little bit. That might not mean he stops putting up the occasional big game.

D.J. Augustin was the same way. He scored 11.7 points per game, his most in five years, and dished out 5.3 assists per game, his most in seven years. Something really clicked with Augustin last year that revived his play.

Augustin’s scoring average has increased modestly over the past four seasons. But Augustin is the Magic’s oldest player at 31 years old. His game relies on his quickness and his ability to get into the paint on quick bursts. Not to mention his health.

FiveThirtyEight projects a very hard drop for Augustin this coming year.

This is not to say any of these players will take a huge step back next year. They all could very well perform at the same level or at a notch below. They all should remain very useful and effective players regardless.

Orlando Magic

But this is three starter-level players who had career years all at once. Three veteran players at that. It is not certain there is much more they can provide or how much better they can actually get.

And that is all part of the larger question of what comes next for this team.

Last year’s Magic team was held together very carefully. The team was always more than the sum of its parts. And so if one piece is flimsy or unable to carry its weight unless something steps up to replace it, the rest will collapse.

The margin for error was very small. And it still feels like it is.

But the team is in a position to fill in those gaps. The Magic proved fairly adaptable last year. The team always found a way to remain competitive, even when they were at their lowest moments.

Orlando is still a fairly young team with players who are still on the ascendance of their growth curve.

The team can certainly expect improvement from Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac. They can expect Mohamed Bamba to be a bit more seasoned in his second year. And Markelle Fultz remains a wild card, but someone who could help ease pressure at point guard.

There are players who can help take some of the burden and fill in these gaps if players like Vucevic and Ross are unable to maintain the same stellar level of play they had last year.

Vucevic, Ross and Augustin are undoubtedly working hard to be ready for the upcoming season. There is no reason to think they will drop off significantly from their play last year. It is even possible that all three can replicate and exceed their play. They are not in the back end of their careers yet.

But the biggest concern for the team is that what was a surprising outburst of a season is not something they can replicate. That might be the biggest concern of all for this team.