The Orlando Magic’s offseason is hard to predict. There are a lot of different routes they could go down and every option needs to be on the table.
The early part of the offseason is done behind the scenes.
Remember that infamous whiteboard that Rob Hennigan had? It was not that the whiteboard was made, laying out all the team’s options and possibilities, it was that it was accidentally leaked in a throwaway photo on a 10-day contract player.
President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman surely has his plans written down — preferably somewhere that can be shared among the basketball operations staff.
The team can go down a whole bunch of different paths with major free agents that could leave and a draft pick in the middle of the first round. And the Magic have to be prepared to go down every path available.
Orlando is not in a position to box itself in for the long-term picture either. This is still a young team with little cap room to maneuver and improve the roster. The last thing the Magic can do is commit themselves too deeply into the cap.
Orlando has to proceed cautiously and be open to any and all ideas.
The team has started its draft preparations at the Amway Center, bringing in groups of players to work out for them and assumedly do interviews to add to their files on each player. The team is also building up its Summer League and G-League roster too.
But the team is also going down another path in addition to the draft.
Free agency will start a week after the draft and this has the potential to reshape the team as much as anything else that happens this summer.
The team could lose its All-Star center in Nikola Vucevic. Key reserve Terrence Ross is also a free agent. And Orlando has precious little cap space should they try to keep either of them to improve the roster.
There are a lot of different branches the team can explore and go down with everything. The offseason for the Magic is extremely difficult to predict for that reason. It is not clear which way the team will go.
Orlando could find a way to go after some big fish. Last week, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders reported the Magic have interest in chasing Kemba Walker.
More recent reporting though suggests Walker is going to seriously consider staying with the Charlotte Hornets.
The interesting part here is not so much that the Magic would sign Walker, but that there are enough rumors around that the team is fishing for a big get like Walker. This at least signals Orlando may not sit around in free agency as the team has in year’s past.
Getting to max cap space would be extremely tricky for the team — it would involve renouncing the free agent rights to both Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross, stretching Timofey Mozgov‘s cap hit and probably making one more roster move to clear a little more space. Doing so also would probably make that acquisition the only move the Magic make this offseason.
But it is at least possible.
And Orlando does not have to do all that to get to some major room — especially using Vucevic’s likely below-market cap hold to add a player and retain the big man.
Already it is easy to see the different avenues and options the Magic have ahead of them. It is why this summer no longer seems so cut and dry.
Re-sign Vucevic? That locks the team in place with much of the same roster as last year — with the potential to sign a Ross replacement — and locks the team into some long-term money, probably shortening what they can do in the summer of 2020 (which does not look great anyway).
Let Vucevic go? Now the team has to scramble to find a starting center on the market — likely on a short-term deal — using the cap space freed up from losing Vucevic’s cap hold.
All the while the team has that Timofey Mozgov stretch tool it can use to free up even more space and aggressively go after free agents to fill out and improve the roster.
And this does not even get into the draft.
Orlando Magic
There the team could be left with a ball dominant wing who has the talent to be a starter but may struggle to fill a role around others on the team, like Romeo Langford, Kevin Porter Jr. or Nassir Little.
Or they could go with a lower upside player who can clearly fit a role and a need the team has today, like Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Tyler Herro. Then there are raw, high-upside guys the team could explore that fits the Magic’s overall draft profile — such as KZ Okpala or Cameron Johnson.
The team is not likely to offer a clue of their free-agent plans through the draft. The draft is still about getting the best player you can that fits the team’s ultimate vision. Need is a secondary concern in the draft.
And the team has a number of options for that clearly.
Options are a good thing for any team. There are a number of different directions the team can go this year. There is no easy prediction for what will happen this offseason for the Magic.
And so every option has to be on the table. Orlando cannot overcommit itself or its summer plans to one side. They have to be ready for everything. And likely move quickly or at the same time on multiple fronts.
The Magic have to be aggressive about everything they do this offseason.
The Vucevic question is far from clear cut, despite his massive contributions to the team’s playoff hopes. The draft pick is completely up in the air. And how the Magic respond in free agency is unclear — stemming off the Vucevic decision.
To make the most of these opportunities, Weltman will have to have every possibility mapped out. He will need his targets should they sign Vucevic or let him walk. They will need a refined draft board that takes into account both talent and need.
The Magic experienced a ton of success last year. Maintaining and improving that success is far from guaranteed.
And the Magic still have to walk a tight line to make sure they accomplish everything they want this offseason.