Markelle Fultz a bigger risk than it seems for Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic may have finally landed their point guard of the future in Markelle Fultz. But is this a win-win situation or a lose-lose situation for the organization?

Why?

That question was asked all around Central Florida as the Orlando Magic made a move heard all around the league on the last day of the trade deadline.

The Orlando Magic acquired former No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz from the Philadelphia 76ers.

It was a moment of excitement. The team grabbed a player with tremendous potential and talent who simply could not find his fit with a pressure-packed 76ers team while dealing with his own serious injuries.

But there is no getting around that Markelle Fultz has failed to live up to the difficult expectations of being the top pick. To many fans, Fultz is already labeled as one of the biggest busts in NBA history.

In two NBA seasons, Fultz has played in 33 games and averaged 7.7 points per game on 41.4 percent from the field and shot an abysmal 26.7 percent from the 3-point line. He also has shot 53.4 percent from the charity stripe.

Dwight Howard is a  better free throw shooter this year at 60.4 percent.

Is this a case of another team’s trash could be another team’s treasure? That is what Orlando Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond hope.

They consider this a high-reward move as they acquire a player with top overall pick potential who is still 20 years old. While Weltman would not assess the risk of this deal, it is hard to argue it is much of one. Jonathon Simmons had fallen out of the rotation and the picks they gave up are likely a late first-round pick in 2020 and an early second-round pick in 2019.

For a team that has not made the Playoffs since 2012 and been through the Lottery ringer, the team went out and won its own version of the Lottery. It almost seems like the Magic are restarting the rebuild, now pairing Markelle Fultz with the promising young core that features his fellow draft classmate Jonathan Isaac and center Mohamed Bamba.

It seems to be a move that will secure one of the Magic’s biggest positions of need for a long time. That is, if this all works out.

No one is under any misperceptions. Fultz’s injury — thoracic outlet syndrome — is a serious one. It sapped Fultz’s ability to shoot consistently and needed a full and careful recovery.

The Magic in the few days since they acquired him have made it clear they will let Fultz recover at his pace and support him as much as they can in that recovery.

Only time will tell if Fultz can realize that lost potential. But all the evidence in his career so far suggests this is a much bigger risk than the optimists might have you believe. Fultz is not the player who was the consensus top overall pick in 2017 and he may never get there. His injury and the confidence he lost trying to work through it may be too much of a hill to climb.

The reality has become that 2017 draft class is a whole lot better than anyone anticipated. Would anyone re-draft that class and have Markelle Fultz ahead of Jayson Tatum? Or Donovan Mitchell? Or even Jonathan Isaac, whom the Magic took with the sixth pick?

Orlando desperately needed a point guard, but this guy may not be better than D.J. Augustin. He may never be better than D.J. Augustin, even with Markelle Fultz’s size.

It is not clear just how much the Magic are willing to invest. Did this fill the point guard need? Will Orlando continue to look for a point guard this summer, or is this player who some consider the biggest bust in league history, the team’s future signal caller and leader?

If he could somehow flourish and become the future at the point guard position while the Magic keep Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier, it could pay huge dividends in the summer. It locks in place a key piece for the team’s future and could push them ahead, rising their ceiling for ultimate success.

There seems to be more if’s than when’s in this scenario. Do the Magic start Fultz, or does he come off of the bench? If he does start how long does he play if he looks awful? How do the Magic bring him back from this injury? How much do they rush or delay him?

Orlando has made some highly questionable moves after Dwight Howard left Orlando. There is plenty of doubt about this team’s ability to improve and value the assets on its roster.

For Weltman, this is the first big swing he has made since taking over in the summer of 2017. The first big risk he has taken.

His two first-round draft picks to this point were both viewed as projects, but largely defensible and safe picks for the team. They took the most talented players on the roster and trusted they could build the development culture to make them strong.

This is a different project. This is a player with immense talent but a lot of baggage.

Did the Magic ignore the personal issues Fultz went through that ultimately took away the confidence in his jump shot? It looks like he literally forgot how to shoot the ball from the perimeter.

Does this put more pressure on the personal development staff to re-construct damaged goods?

On the other hand, Fultz’s athletic ability seems to be still there. And if the Magic can get him with the right shooting coach maybe he can improve on his jumper. If Fultz can get healthy, maybe he can reclaim his talent.

Fultz was one of the leading scorers in the NCAA averaging 23.2 points per game, 5.7 rebounds per game and 5.9 assists per game. The Magic have bet that he will return to that player while wearing their jersey.

He is still just 20 years old. There is still a world of possibility ahead of him.

Or maybe that possibility has closed off. Injuries and confidence taking away that potential.

The Magic were willing to take the risk of all these questions for at least the next two years. They pushed some chips in for the chance of what Fultz could have been.

The one thing that should be clear, despite the fan excitement, is that it is no sure thing.