Close games are the difference for the Orlando Magic’s Playoff hopes

The Orlando Magic’s recent struggles in close games is the clear difference for the Orlando Magic as their Playoff hopes are fading.

When Orlando Magic fans think of crunch time and the end of games, it begins to fill them with some level of dread.

Recently, these late-game situations have spelled nothing but doom for the team. Orlando with a narrow lead or a close game late in games has not been a winning proposition.

The fact many of these losses have followed a similar pattern is the concerning part. Late-game situations should be no different than any other situation. But there is no doubt the pressure changes the way a team plays.

And when it comes to “winning time” the Magic are found wanting. And so the question is: What is happening to the Magic late in games? How can they fix this problem?

There are no easy answers as these moments show the inherent flaws in this roster.

During this recent stretch of six losses in the last seven games, all but one of those losses came down to the final seconds. The Magic are literally sliding down the standings because they cannot find that next level to finish games.

The Orlando Magic’s loss to the Detroit Pistons came down to overtime where Andre Drummond‘s late rebounds forced overtime and Blake Griffin‘s shotmaking won it in the end. Coach Steve Clifford lamented the team’s inability to make open shots in a 2-for-11 overtime for the defeat.

That could get brushed off if it did not start a pattern. The next outing against the Brooklyn Nets, the Orlando Magic lost a lead they held for much of the game, submitting to the shotmaking of D’Angelo Russell. Evan Fournier‘s layup came short at the buzzer and the team faced bitter disappointment.

In the rematch with Brooklyn the following week, the Magic fought their way back to take the lead late. But they could not get shots to fall late. Evan Fournier again missed shots down the stretch. And Nikola Vucevic tipped in the game-tying basket a hair too soon, getting called for offensive interference.

The same thing happened against the Washington Wizards on Friday. Orlando had several opportunities to hold onto the win with Nikola Vucevic most notably missing open shots and then two free throws in the final minute. The Wizards made plays but had their own gaffe turning it over with 15 seconds left. But D.J. Augustin tried to flip it basket to Nikola Vucevic and Vucevic fumbled the ball out of bounds.

Then Sunday night in Houston, the Orlando Magic led the Houston Rockets for the entire game. Until the very end. That is when James Harden took over and the Magic offense went into a shell. Houston went on an 8-0 run behind Harden’s scoring and the Magic had no answers whatsoever.

Each of these games saw the Magic crumble down the stretch.

This is the same team that has had some great late-game moments. Terrence Ross hit a game-winning shot over the Philadelphia 76ers earlier in the year for what felt like a monumental win. Fournier has buzzer-beating shots against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons. The Magic authored their own impossible comeback to beat the Cavaliers that game.

Close games truly are 50/50 propositions. Playing in a lot of them will find a lot of ups and downs.

The Magic are going through a down moment right now. The attention is heightened only because every win is precious and the Magic are starting to lose touch with the Playoff race. Not to mention the trade deadline looms ahead.

Orlando had its own shaky moments even in those games. But the team found a way to win. It never has to be pretty. Late games rarely are. Every team’s efficiency goes down and defense improves late in games. The pressure gets to everyone and teams often change their approach late in games.

According to NBA.com, the Magic have played the most “clutch” games in the league this year. They define a “clutch” game as any game within five points in the final two minutes. Orlando has played 30 of these games in the 50 they have played, going 13-17.

That is a lot of essential coin flips that have gone the wrong way. It is easy to see how even flipping a few of these games the other way would change a lot.

In these situations, the Magic have a 95.4 offensive rating, the fourth-worst late-game offense in the league. They have a 101.7 defensive rating, the eighth-best in the league. Orlando has tightened its defense up, for the most part, this season.

And that is what is truly different about these games lately.

Since January 1, the Magic are 2-7 in close games. They have played the most close games since the turn of the new year and are clearly performing below average.

They have a 90.5 offensive rating, even worse than their poor mark throughout the year. But more alarmingly, they have a 107.0 defensive rating. That is 13th in the league in that time with several small sample sizes. But by far worse than their season average.

But it is clear that with the offense struggling more, the Magic have not gotten their defense to step up. That is a microcosm for the year. The late-game situations are only bringing out those weaknesses fully.

That includes the lack of a true go-to scorer.

Right now, Fournier leads the team with 2.0 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting in clutch situations. He has made only 21.7 percent of his 3-pointers in those situations. That kind of cold shooting — despite his high-profile heroics — has hurt the team.

But Vucevic has not fared much better. Vucevic is averaging 1.8 points per game in clutch situations, shooting 37.5 percent. He shoots 51.8 percent from the field. That is a difficult split in these situations.

The Magic’s two best offensive players simply are not delivering.

Orlando Magic

There is an argument they should try to run more offense for Terrence Ross — 1.8 points per game on 40.0 percent shooting and 38.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc — or Aaron Gordon — 0.9 points on 45.5 percent shooting in clutch situations. Aaron Gordon is more unproven, taking fewer than 1.0 field goal attempts per game.

Orlando turns to Fournier, Vuceivc and Ross most late in games. They have all delivered at various times. But none are delivering now. Their numbers are not much better in January with the pressure ramping up.

This is a very intractable problem. One without a clear solution.

Learning how to win games is something a team can only do through experience and confidence. Right now, it is clear the Magic are lacking that bit of confidence to finish games. They are turning to the players that get them up to the finish line and they have been unable to get them across.

Things could change quickly. Close games are largely coin flips.

Clifford has said he feels the team is getting good shots and they are simply not falling. If those shots start to fall, the script could change quickly. And with the Magic playing so many close games, they could bank up enough wins to get back into the Playoff race.

Right now, there seems little confidence they could turn that tide. Until it does, the Magic may continue to slide. These close games are costing them their Playoff dreams.