Orlando Magic’s fight against fatigue might cost them their Playoff hopes

The Orlando Magic are seeing their Playoff hopes slip away. their lack of depth and fatigue may finally be what ends the dreams for this season.

The Orlando Magic could find a reason to hold their heads up even through the course of a three-game losing streak, one that has started to push the Magic back down the standings and perhaps (finally) out of serious Playoff contention.

In their last 10 games, the Magic’s offense has suddenly come alive to 107.1 points per 100 possessions (20th in the league). In the last five games, the Magic are scoring 113.2 points per 100 possessions (11th in the league).

Small samples they might be, but it is proof positive the team can score and find offense. They can get into a rhythm and play well. It is certainly a ton better than the team’s 105.1 offensive rating for the season.

But if there is one thing going right, there is another leak in the dam springing a leak. This time it is their defense — league average for the entire season, but 18th in the last five games (114.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) and 13th in the last 10 games (110.2 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Those rankings might feel decent, but even the improved offense cannot cover for a defense playing worse than the team’s 109.1 season average for defensive rating.

If anything, this recent stretch of games has shown this is a team still seeking to solidify its identity. As coach Steve Clifford often puts it, this is a team that knows how it has to win and has to tread that path carefully. The margin for error is too small.

But a new problem may be emerging. The latest in a long line of issues that could derail the Magic’s sputtering Playoff hopes.

Fatigue is becoming a real issue as the Magic go through another rough patch in the schedule. And for a team with little depth, that puts Clifford in a tough spot.

Does he rely too much on the starters and leave the team exposed to fatigue late in games? Or does he ride the bench and hope they can maintain whatever momentum is left them and give the starters a chance to finish games?

It is a chicken or an egg problem for a clearly flawed roster. But it is a problem that has had some clear consequences.

Nikola Vucevic, by far the team’s most consistent and most impactful player, checked back in with 5.5 minutes left in the game for the fourth quarter. The Magic were already losing grip on their comeback in this game. But it was not enough time for their best player to return to form. Usually he comes back in with about six minutes left, so it was not unusual to see him in so late.

What was unusual was that he played fewer than 30 minutes Saturday for the first time since the blowout loss to the Sacramento Kings. He has failed to reach 30 minutes just 16 times this season. Orlando clearly needs him out there — his +0.6 net rating trails only D.J. Augustin among rotation players.

Then again, things swing the other way. And Orlando has lost some of its late-game mojo of late. Fatigue may be a real cause.

In the last five games, especially, things have come down to this decision. The Orlando Magic used double-digit comebacks to defeat the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets at the Amway Center.

But against the Detroit Pistons, offensive rebounds from Andre Drummond helped the Pistons force overtime before a 2-for-12 period sank the Orlando Magic’s chances to steal a road win.

In that overtime game, Evan Fournier played 39 minutes, Nikola Vucevic nearly 38 and Aaron Gordon more than 37. It was an overtime game, those are excessive minutes for sure. But those three players especially have taken on a bigger role.

On the team, Aaron Gordon is playing 33.5 minutes per game, a career high. Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic are each averaging 31 minutes per game. Those are in line with previous career averages at various points in their career.

Gordon is 33rd in the league in minutes per game. Among centers, Vucevic is 12th in minutes per game.

These are rightfully high-usage, high-minute players. They should be on the floor.

But following the team’s 118-108 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, Clifford expressed some concern after the game of overplaying these players. He needs them for the stretch run of games and for the season. In the midst of a rough stretch of 10 games in 18 days, he does not want to overtax them.

That comes after the team had a stretch of 15 days on the road in 23 days that took the team to the West Coast and then to Mexico City for a pair of home games. The schedule has brought new challenges to preserve his players.

Clifford pulling some minutes to preserve players for these difficult stretches ahead is admirable. It is something the NBA is asking its teams to do more.

But this is a Playoff race too. And the Magic are in a tricky spot. They need their starters to win, but relying on them too much can leave them gassed at the end.

Against the Brooklyn Nets, Fournier played 38 minutes and Vucevic played 32. Orlando lost a double-digit lead the team held for much of the second half under a barrage of threes. Fournier said after the game that he did not get the lift he wanted on his final lay-up at the rim. He left it short and the Nets escaped with the win.

After a solid start in close games, the Magic have faded a bit down the stretch. Orlando is now 13-14 in games within five points in the final five minutes with 100.0 offensive rating and a 101.0 defensive rating. At least Orlando is playing really good defense in these clutch situations.

Orlando Magic

But that still leaves them susceptible to the kind of shot-making D’Angelo Russell had in that game. Late-game situations are dangerous because of this inherent randomness — both for and against a team. And Orlando has played the third most “clutch” games in the league, according to NBA.com.

Then there was Saturday. The Magic had another comeback in them to catch the Bucks, drawing to within four. But then the team seemingly ran out of gas. The defensive intensity got broken with Khris Middleton hitting a tough 3-pointer over Nikola Vucevic. Eric Bledsoe put the icing on the cake of his strong game with a floater that bounced high off the iron and through to end the game.

Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac‘s late-game dunks were nice. But the game was already lost. The Magic struggled to adjust to losing Gordon early in the game, found their center in Vucevic once again, came back and gave themselves a chance only to lose late again.

The Magic did plenty fine throughout the game against the Eastern Conference’s current leaders. Their swoon in the early parts of the game that put them in the hole appeared to be the big difference. There are issues that go beyond fatigue with the team’s defensive intensity.

But so too was the decision to be cautious with their best players. This push and pull between the team’s lack of depth and the fear of overtaxing the stars is reaching a critical point.

Vucevic said after the game, he will play as long as he has to for the team to win. He would go on to say that this is the point in the season where the Magic must decide whether they will do what they must to make the Playoffs or fade to irrelevancy again.

Time is indeed running out. And some of that pressure falls on Clifford. He is balancing a roster that needs its starters to win. Both to win the immediate game in front of them and to win in the long run over the course of the season.

This is getting to be a time where Vucevic is right, every game is a Game 7. Every game matters in this tight Playoff race. And the Magic cannot afford to drop any more games.

If that means Clifford has to break his rotation and tighten things up — even with the risk of injury — that may be worth it for the team.

There have been a lot of things that could do the Magic in. It appears fighting fatigue and the team’s depth might be what finally puts a stake in the Magic’s season.