The Orlando Magic once again lost a double-digit lead in a disappointing loss. As this becomes more common, the team is searching for their big finish.
Leads in the NBA are always precarious. That is at least what coach Steve Clifford will tell you.
Players in the NBA are too good and too talented to not have some run in them. The age-old NBA saying is every team has a run in them. No lead is ever truly safe.
Still, the odds of winning a game when there is a 20-point lead at any time is still pretty good. That is getting to blow out territory and to build a lead of that size takes some pretty strong basketball. Every team will have those games where they just absolutely kill it just like they will have those games where they struggle in the long slog of an 82-game season.
And there will surely be some games in both directions where the leads disappear or are made up. The season is long and every kind of game gets fed through the cycle.
What is not supposed to happen? Repeated defeats after holding such big leads. Such wild swings of strong play followed by terrible play.
It will happen once or twice in the course of the season. A blip on the radar easily explained away as the realities of the NBA.
When it happens multiple times in a short span? That cannot be brushed aside so easily. It suggests something much deeper is wrong with a team. Especially if they have winning aspiration.
If the Orlando Magic miss the Playoffs, they are now 2.5 games out of the final spot, they will likely point to games like the 117-115 loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Friday at Amway Center.
A loss where the team played exceptionally well once again — a 115.0 offensive rating is well above the team’s woeful offensive averages — but also lost another double-digit lead. It is a trend that has become all too familiar and is creating no easy explanation.
"“We didn’t lose because [Evan Fournier] didn’t make that shot,” Nikola Vucevic said. “We lost because we didn’t do a lot of the little things that we need to throughout the game. We had the lead, we had things going our way but we didn’t finish the game off.“Our defense didn’t sustain for 48 minutes. Offensively, we had stretches too where we didn’t play when it worked for us. The same things that happened. It’s tough because we know we can be better than that.”"
For the fourth time in the last eight games, the Magic lost a lead of more than 15 points and ended up losing. At least on the West Coast road trip, where they lost double-digit leads against the Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers and Utah Jazz, they still had a chance to win the game in the end.
But that kind of progress is of no solace to a team chasing the Playoffs. And considering there were other times the team lost pretty sizable leads. It is a trend that is quite literally costing the team’s goals. And feels wholly within their control.
The examples of these blown leads and failures to finish are becoming far too numerous.
There was the 18-point lead the team lost to the Golden State Warriors behind Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson‘s barrage. They nearly lost a 16-point lead in the second half to the Los Angeles Lakers on the road. There was a 15-point lead the team lost at home to the Detroit Pistons in early November, sparking the first time Clifford called out the team’s defensive organization publicly.
That is already a hefty list of opportunities that have slipped through the team’s fingers. Reverse those losses into wins and the Magic are sitting comfortably in the Playoff pole position.
Being able to finish a game or hold onto a seemingly comfortable lead is very literally the difference between the Playoffs and the Lottery.
This is something that is more than a passing pattern. This seems to be something the team is struggling to fight through. The way those leads disappear can be quite different, but the result remains the same.
"“I think this is a little bit different than how it was out West,” Evan Fournier said. “We had a good first quarter defensively and we dropped the intensity in the second half. That wasn’t the case tonight. We just made more mistakes down than they did down the stretch. That is why they came back into the game.”"
Friday night, the Magic took a 21-point lead in the second quarter and held on to that double-digit lead for much of the rest of the game. Orlando had a 93.5 percent chance of winning at that point according to Inpredictable. D’Angelo Russell single-handedly cut into the deficit scoring eight straight points for Brooklyn.
Orlando held them off and kept the lead at 15 for the time being, but Russell was starting to get himself cooking. Fournier said after the game with a player like Russell, the defense has to knock him off rhythm. They could not allow him to get that rhythm or else he would start hitting the contested shots later in the game.
That is exactly what happened at this point of the game. Orlando held Brooklyn off before halftime, going up by 13, but the seeds were already planted. The Magic would not be able to reel him back in the rest of the game and that opened everything else up.
Like those other lost leads, it was a slow build that saw opponents find a little crack in the defense they quickly exposed and expanded. The Magic were unable to stem the tide and make the plays to put the game away.
These lost leads are a sign of the team’s struggles to learn how to win and get ot the finish line.
It was this little detail and little bit of hope from Russell’s shooting that a solid team like Brooklyn all it needs to come back.
"“Every place I have ever been, the same question gets asked. That’s the NBA. Twenty points in the first half is nothing,” Clifford said. “We tried to post the ball tonight, that’s what we tried to do. Their two big runs were more of a result of our inability to run good offense than poor defense. So that wasn’t the problem.”"
Clifford is right that everyone in the league will have their moments where they give up a big lead just like they will erase big deficits. The Magic have done it this year. A 48-minute game is a long time and every second of the game — from the first to the last — is vital.
And the Magic had their chances to win it at the end once again.
Terrence Ross missed a free throw that would have tied the game late. Nikola Vucevic missed shots down the stretch he would normally make. And Fournier missed a runner at the rim short that would have sent the game to overtime.
As runs are occurring, it makes sense to simplify the offense and go to the team’s bread and butter. That would be running pick and rolls with Vucevic and Fournier or trying to work the ball into the post to play through Vucevic.
Orlando did the things they needed to do to stem the tide. But they were too often disorganized in transition and turnovers hurt them down the stretch. The Nets made their run on the backs of the Magic’s mistakes. They made tough shots. But this is all on them more.
And that might lead to the most uncomfortable revelation. Yes, these comebacks happen and no lead should be taken for granted in this league.
But this team is lacking the little things to finish games. They are lacking the composure to finish things off and seal a game, stopping a run before the team gains too much confidence.
What those little things are — the execution, organization or confidence to win and dominate — may be what saves or sinks the season.