All the statistics suggest Mohamed Bamba is struggling to make an impact. The tension of his return is whether to keep developing him or make a winning move.
The Orlando Magic got some welcome news Tuesday before heading to Detroit.
Mohamed Bamba participated fully in the team’s practice after missing the road finale against the Utah Jazz and the pair of weekend games with a sore foot. It appears he is on track to return, although reports from practice suggest the team plans to sit Mohamed Bamba out one more game to give him a chance to recover further.
Steve Clifford said it's unclear whether Mo Bamba will play tomorrow night in Detroit. Clifford said it might be more realistic for Bamba to play Friday. https://t.co/Vg6MegWiLK
— Josh Robbins (@JoshuaBRobbins) January 15, 2019
Bamba is clearly a big part of the team’s future. Orlando spent a valuable sixth overall pick on him and his length and presence can be a major impactor for a team defensively.
He still has a long way to go to develop into that. Physically, he has to continue adding strength so he can muscle around the post. And his offensive game is growing but still a work in progress.
The Magic knew Bamba would be a project when they drafted him. The surprise has been Nikola Vucevic‘s expansion of his game on both ends and his value to the team. Orlando will continue to work to groom Bamba and develop him however they can.
All while still winning.
That is the central tension for the rest of the season. The Orlando Magic find themselves a game behind the Charlotte Hornets for the final Playoff spot. They are in the thick of the Playoff race and playing meaningful games for the first time.
They can thank that, at least in part, to the pair of games the team won over the weekend. After a dispiriting 1-5 road trip, the Orlando Magic defeated the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets in back-to-back games at the Amway Center. Suddenly the team is surging in confidence and no longer fading.
And that was done with Mohamed Bamba out of the lineup and Khem Birch in the lineup.
Two games is too small a sample size to make any decision, but it has to make coach Steve Clifford wonder what the best move is to keep the team winning. And whether he must sacrifice some of Bamba’s development to do so.
There are no easy answers here.
From a statistical standpoint, the choice is not particularly clear. But it is clear some change should be explored.
Bamba’s individual statistics are not overly impressive — 6.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 blocks per game in 16.6 minutes per game. Again, none of this was surprising. He has had to learn his way through the NBA still and develop both his body and his skills.
That would be all well and good if his minutes did not have meaning. But more than any other player, Bamba has had a negative impact — at least by the numbers.
The Magic have a -17.0 net rating with Bamba on the floor this year, the worst mark of any rotation player on the team. The team’s defense is about its average with him on the floor (108.3 points allowed per 100 possessions), but the offense craters with Bamba in the game (91.3 points per 100 possessions).
Orlando has a team-best +2.6 net rating with Bamba off the floor. A definite side effect of playing the team’s best player in Nikola Vucevic ahead of him.
Bamba is not wholly responsible for this, of course. The Magic have thrown him out in some of the team’s worst lineups and largely with the bench group. And he has been a constant through all those changes. But it still does not look good.
Bamba hs gone through plenty of growing pains. He has looked a bit lost at times as he tries to understand the team’s defensive coverages. These are typically things rookies have to go through.
But it is also undeniable the impact Khem Birch has had in Mohamed Bamba’s place.
Birch’s sample size is significantly smaller. He has played in only 163 minutes compared to Bamba’s 646 minutes. But in virtually the same lineups, Birch has had a much clearer positive impact (again, statistically).
The Magic have a +0.6 net rating with Birch in the lineup. While the offense with Birch in the game is still a bit of a struggle — and Birch is not someone who will move the needle much offensively, certainly not as much as Bamba can potentially — the defense is significantly better at 103.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Bamba is supposed to provide that kind of defensive impact with his presence alone. Birch is actually and statistically providing that impact.
This weekend’s games were an even bigger sign of his presence. In the two games, Orlando had a +29.8 net rating with Birch on the floor, the best mark on the team. It is safe to say, the Magic won those two games because the bench units led by Khem Birch and Isaiah Briscoe played far better than their mean.
Two games is a small sample size. But the evidence suggests Birch at least deserves a chance at some backup mintues.
Knowing he has consistent minutes, he is playing the pick and roll defense that had fans excited last year. He can wall off the paint and uses his strength and positioning to stonewall drivers and recover to the roll man. He is a good shot blocker and challenger at the rim unlike anyone else.
Like last year, Birch seems stuck behind players the Magic are more heavily invested in. But he has played well enough to earn minutes.
That gets back to the team’s central tension once again. Do the Magic turn back to the rookie they must develop or do they stick with the player who appears to have a bigger impact on winning?
Clifford said while Bamba was hurt the team will move back to Bamba when he returns from injury. There is still a lot of trust in Bamba to provide the impact the Magic need.
But Birch has raised this question.
Josh Robbins of The Athletic wrote the team should keep Birch in the rotation to build up a culture of earning playing time. He believes the Magic should not simply gift playing time to their prized rookie.
Statistically, it is hard to argue with that logic. But, at the same time, this is a team still rebuilding. Making the Playoffs is a goal worth reaching for, but not the primary goal for this season. Playing Bamba is important. But it clearly still hurts the team.
This is at the heart of the Magic’s project for the rest of the season.
This was the same question with lower stakes raised when the Magic opted to move Wesley Iwundu out of the rotation when Jonathan Isaac returned from injury, opting to keep Jonathon Simmons in the rotation. Jonathon Simmons continued to struggle and, eventually, Wesley Iwundu found himself back in the rotation.
Clifford has always seemed to default to the players he initially trusted. He deliberates on rotation change decisions and does not make them too hasty.
That appears to be what he is going to do with Bamba. When Bamba is ready to return — whether that is this weekend or a little further down the road — he will return to the rotation.
If Birch has another clearly impactful and strong game Wednesday night, how long will that leash be? That is probably the bigger question.
Clifford’s goal is and should be to get the team to the Playoffs. So long as that goal is attainable, the Magic should do all they can to make it.
But how much are they willing to sacrifice in development time with Bamba to get there? Maybe that is determined by how long Birch can play at this high level or whether this is sustainable.
These are the questions that will circle the Magic the rest of this season as they try to balance their short-term and long-term goals.