The Orlando Magic have one of the best high-usage lineups in the entire league. And that gives them a path to the Playoffs.
There is a lot of talk about the Orlando Magic and the future. The trade deadline is a mere month away and the team is sitting a few games under .500 and outside the Playoff race. Even with the team’s relative success — compared to the last six years at least — the team knows its rebuild is not done and that they will have to add more pieces.
Quickly, too, the discussion has turned to the offseason and the critical decisions the Magic have to make involving free agents-to-be Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic. Their names will also circle around the trade deadline and are at the heart of every decision the Magic make from here on out.
Yet, there is something else that is likely part of this whole equation that others might not consider.
The Magic might actually be an OK team.
The stats do not reflect this much. Orlando has a -3.3 net rating, 24th in the league. That is not the typical profile of a Playoff team.
The Magic are still seeking an identity. The offense is struggling overall but finding a bit of a groove. And the defense has settled in the middle of the pack in the overall rankings.
There are reasons for concern still with this young Magic team. But also plenty of reason to hope. Especially with the schedule lightening up some after this long road trip.
If Orlando has one thing that should make anyone believe the team has a Playoff push in it, it should be the stellar play of the team’s starting group.
The Magic have found a nice groove with their starting lineup of D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. That is very similar to the group that started last year during the team’s hot start before injuries kept that group from coming together.
According to HoopsStats, the Magic’s starters have a +4.6 efficiency rating, the 13th best in the league. That certainly is a bit better than the team’s overall net rating and record might indicate. The Magic have gotten great contributions from their starting lineup all season.
For the season, that lineup of D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic have an overall net rating of +7.6 points per 100 possessions — 107.2 offensive rating, 99.6 defensive rating in 254 minutes. That lineup is the seventh best lineup in the league that has played at least 200 minutes in the entire league.
By that judgment, the Magic’s current starting lineup is not merely very good but nearly elite.
Even taking out Jonathan Isaac for Terrence Ross, as the team often does at the end of games, the team improves to a +15.4 net rating (106.0 offensive rating, 90.6 defensive rating in 118 total minutes). That group ranks sixth in the entire league among all lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.
This is no surprise, of course. The Magic have been a significantly better team with Vucevic and Augustin on the floor. Those two have been major drivers for the team.
But to be this good? It explains how the Magic have stayed in games and given themselves a chance to win. But it also explains why the team’s margin for error remains so small.
That group plays only about 10 minutes per game together and coach Steve Clifford has had no small work to cover up for the team’s biggest weakness: It’s lack of depth.
The team’s bench has struggled with its bench throughout the season. According to HoopsStats, have the third-worst bench in the league with a -9.3 net rating. The bench is as bad as the starters have been good. If not worse.
This matches with plenty of the observations everyone has had about the team.
The Magic’s bench has had plenty of struggles this year. And during some of the team’s struggles, Clifford has had to jumble his rotations to bolster the bench. And that has separated some of these stronger lineups.
Orlando Magic
Orlando’s inability to find a quality and dependable second unit is a big part of the story of why the Magic have had some wild swings and why the team sits on the outside currently.
And the Magic have not had to face any major injuries in quite some time — Jonathan Isaac was out for an extended time and now Jonathon Simmons has missed a few games, but neither injury was serious. An injury — like the one to Augustin that caused him to miss only a single game or Vucevic’s paternity leave — can have massive effects on this team.
If the Magic have a priority for this offseason or for the trade deadline, it is more about adding depth. Because this current starting group plays extremely well together. Enough that this is one of the biggest reasons to believe the Magic can make the Playoffs.
The problem for a lot of teams struggling near the bottom of the standings is simply depth. It is asking players to do more than they otherwise might be capable of doing at a high level consistently.
The problem for this Magic team is exactly that.
The team has a workable starting lineup that is playing effectively. More than playing effectively, they are one of the best lineups in the entire league. And the Magic’s ability to rely on this group — or switch out Ross for Isaac — is a big reason why they are able to win games at a surprisingly effective clip.
There is still room for improvement. The Magic have eked out games in the clutch — 11-10 per NBA.com when the score is within five points with less than five minutes remaining — but the team has a -1.8 net rating with an offensive rating just better than 97 points per 100 possessions.
To be sure, much of Orlando’s chances to win are still a tricky balance. The team will have to win close games and play better when games are tight to have a chance at making the Playoffs.
But if they do have one thing right on that path it is this starting group. They are playing extraordinarily well overall and are a force teams are reckoning with. If the Magic can find a way to bolster their bench, this group clearly has what it takes to lead the team to the postseason.