Orlando Magic expected to operate with little cap room

As things currently stand, the Orlando Magic are expecting to operate over the salary cap depending on what they do with their free agents and in trades.

The calendar has turned to January. The season’s midpoint is well in sight — Wednesday’s game against the Chicago Bulls is Game No. 37 for the Orlando Magic — and attention is quickly turning more seriously to the Playoff race.

That little race — the Orlando Magic enter Wednesday’s game 0.5 games behind the Detroit Pistons for the final Playoff spot — will color and affect a lot of the decisions the team makes from here on out. Because the next big date on the calendar will come quickly.

While the Magic have to be pleased and happy with where they stand in the ranks of the Eastern Conference, their place there also creates new questions for the front office on what to do next.

Orlando is not hiding the team is still trying to find the right path forward. Jeff Weltman’s tact since taking over as the president of basketball operations has been to make the most of the roster he had, biding his time to make major moves to reshape the franchise. He inherited a team that was stuck in a salary cap hole and did not have much maneuverability to improve.

The Magic’s biggest free agent signing since Jeff Weltman took over was Jonathon Simmons last summer. The biggest decision he made was re-signing Aaron Gordon to a team-friendly four-year, $76-million deal. His biggest trade is acquiring Jerian Grant and shedding Bismack Biyombo’s contract.

It is not a big catalog for two years. And the Magic are better this year thanks to their health.

But there is a growing concern this team’s ceiling is not much more than sneaking into the Playoffs. Orlando is waiting on draft picks Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba to develop and grow.

The team certainly still has work to do on the roster. And there are still plenty of long-term questions.

Those questions will all be in the fore as the trade deadline approaches on Feb. 7. The Magic could use some upgrade, but they are not likely to sacrifice any long-term assets just to win this year. That seems like the strategy.

But the Magic are still pretty busy.

Of course, they also have the offseason to think about. When it comes to the Magic and their decision making they do not really seem to have to worry so much about the summer.

According to Keith Smith of RealGM, Orlando is expected to be slightly over next year’s projected cap of $109 million.

As things stand right now, the Magic have $75.1 million in guaranteed salary for next year with the current roster.

The only major non-guaranteed deal they have to worry about is Jonathon Simmons — only $1 million of his $5.7 million is guaranteed. So the Magic, by this token and by renouncing the rights of Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross and other restricted free agents like Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin and Khem Birch, could have as much as $33.9 million.

That would be enough to chase a max-level player, even in a market like this.

The reason those projections fall over the cap is because the team is not likely simply to renounce Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross’ cap holds. They both come with roughly $34 million in cap holds. Thus, the Magic are likely operating slightly over the cap. Or anticipating doing so.

What the Magic do at the trade deadline will have some far-reaching effects on the team. But even then, it is hard to trade expiring contracts for expiring contracts — it simply does not accomplish either team’s goals to free up money.

And in any case, the Magic are not likely to trade two key players unless they get a clear upgrade.

Typically you will see teams trade expiring contracts for long-term deals. So unless the Magic trade away Evan Fournier, it does not seem likely Orlando will fish for expiring deals. If the Magic traded Evan Fournier, they likely would want to acquire players they want to keep beyond this year. Any deal they make will have at least some long-term focus.

Orlando Magic

It would seem then the Magic could end up being fairly quiet at the trade deadline. With little cap room to absorb any contracts, Simmons’ $6 million salary is really the biggest trade piece. And that could be hard to move.

Orlando knowing how little cap room the team is likely to have this offseason could look to move one of those expiring contracts for some long-term salary. With the team hoping to sneak into the Playoffs, they may see a potential long-term play in grabbing a player with a few years left on his deal. Especially if they are undecided on what they will do with Vucevic and Ross.

For sure, the Magic’s moves this summer relies wholly on what they decide to do with Vucevic and Ross. If they decide to lock into them with long-term deals, this Magic team is likely the team they will have for a few years.

Whether that is a good or a bad thing is certainly up for debate.

If they decide to let either walk, then they could look to replace their salary with players on a crowded free agent market where a lot of teams have some money.

The team’s future then still looks a bit uncertain. It is still unclear what direction Weltman will take things.

For now, it seems he is hoping to make moves on the fringes once again waiting for the right opportunity to make a splash to improve the team or for the Magic’s young players to take a leap with their games.