The Orlando Magic have rounded the quarter pole. Their needs are getting clearer. Whether they can hit the trade market to solve them will take some thought
The Orlando Magic are overperforming this season with a 10-11 record, currently sitting eight in the Eastern Conference and 1.5 games clear of ninth. It has been an encouraging first quarter of the season and there is cautious optimism about the team.
Undoubtedly, this is still a flawed team. There is still work the team could do to get better. The Magic are still in the bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating and overall net rating. The team’s -3.1 net rating is 23rd in the league. That is usually a better indicator of where a team is at.
It all suggests the Magic still have a lot of improvement to make.
The second quarter of the season brings with it the unofficial opening of the trade market. Players who signed contracts in the offseason become eligible to get traded Dec. 15. The countdown to the Feb. 7 trade deadline has begun.
And if the Magic want to make the Playoffs, they could certainly use some additional pieces to shore up their weaknesses and cement their place in the Eastern Conference Playoff picture.
The trade market is still developing. There are already rumors of teams looking to move on and major players who may or may not want to find new homes.
It is still a bit too early to discuss anything seriously. There is still no reporting to suggest anything is imminent. Rumors at this point are shot down as quickly as they arise.
But now is the time to clarify the team’s goals and strategies — both for the short- and long-term.
To be sure, Jeff Weltman has a tougher task in front of him with the team’s surprising start. The Magic are not sellers looking to move expiring contracts like Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross so long as they are in the Playoff hunt. Not for a hefty return, at least.
But they are not likely going to spend too many of their future assets for a rental just to sneak into the Playoffs.
As Adrian Wojnarowski and Bobby Marks discussed on The Woj Pod earlier this week, the Magic are among many teams with interesting positions entering this trade season.
Orlando’s eyes are clearly on the Playoffs. Especially considering their long absence from postseason play.
And there is no doubt the Magic could use a bit of a boost to get to the finish line, even at this early stage. Nothing should be off the table as the team looks to improve.
The Magic have a lot to offer with expiring contracts and talented young players.
Any major deal involving the Magic likely will require including two of the team’s surprising stars, but also their two expiring contracts. To get something good requires giving up something of value.
Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross have played a big part in the team’s early success. It makes sense if Orlando decides to keep both players and tries to re-sign them in the offseason. Both players bring shooting to the table and that is a hot commodity in the trade market.
If things go south this year, they are likely the two players teams will inquire about the most. Both Vucevic and Ross are on reasonable deals north of $12 million that could net some player of value.
With the Magic still a few years away from true contention, they might be willing to take on extra salary to get a young player who needs some new scenery in such a deal.
But the Magic are still a long way away from considering this. Both Ross and Vucevic are vital to the team’s Playoff hopes. Orlando is not likely to give them away, even if it means potentially watching them walk in free agency in July.
Orlando Magic
More likely, Orlando may look to explore deals involving some of their bigger salaries or future draft picks to get some movement. That might prove a bit more difficult because these are difficult assets to judge. Finding a true improvement might be more difficult because these players are less desirable.
Evan Fournier has played well throughout his career. But he is struggling to shoot this year. His $17 million salary for the next two years after this one might chase teams away. Especially in a summer when most teams will have cap room. Who is going to be willing to give up valuable assets to take that responsibility on?
Maybe a team might bight to take D.J. Augustin (he has one year at $7.3 million after this season) but that would leave the Magic in a dire point guard situation. Orlando likely does not make that deal until they are far out of the Playoffs or they get a quality point guard in return.
Jonathon Simmons‘ non-guaranteed deal might also hold some value in the trade market. Jonathon Simmons has given the Magic an edge so far this season, but he has struggled with his shooting. A team might be willing to take a quick flyer on him for a Playoff run and then make a decision on him.
But again, Orlando is not likely to make any move without getting some value in return. And a move that small — Simmons is owed only $6 million next year — is not one that moves the needle in any significant way.
The last thing the Orlando Magic have to dangle is their 2020 top-20 protected first round pick received from the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Victor Oladipo trade is not likely enough
The Magic certainly have the pieces on the table to wheel and deal if they are willing to do so.
A package of Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Jarell Martin and a future draft pick might on paper look intriguing to acquire a borderline star like Bradley Beal, who is at least rumored to want out from the mess that is the Washington Wizards.
That package would seem worth parting with for the Magic to acquire a player who is an up-and-coming star in the league and still has his best years ahead of him. But it also feels too good to be true. Fournier does not provide a team with much salary relief and is certainly not better than what the Magic want to acquire.
That leaves Orlando asking a bigger question: What are they willing to sacrifice to make the team better in the short-term? Would they risk their future for a shot at a Playoff appearance?
It feels like the Magic would only do something like this if it sets the team up comfortably for the long-term. This front office is not likely looking for a short-term Playoff high at the cost of their long-term vision.
Maybe it is too early to ask those questions. It is only the quarter mark of the season and there is a lot of basketball left to play. A lot can still happen. The Magic’s needs and desires can change quickly.
But right now the Magic would be out of the top-10 in the 2019 NBA Draft and out of reach to draft the top players. If that remains, it makes sense to push in for the Playoffs and at least get that experience, maybe even trading away the 2019 pick to bank on this season.
The Magic will have plenty of options in the trade market this winter. But they will have to know fully what their goals are and what they are willing to give up to achieve them to make the most of it.