The path for the Orlando Magic to make the Playoffs

The Orlando Magic are a team in transition. But in a changing Eastern Conference, the path is open to sneak in the Playoffs if the team can take it.

The popular take on the Eastern Conference recently has been that it is wide open.

With no LeBron James and a large gap between the top tier and the rest, seeds 5-8 are very much up for debate. Even the ordering of those top teams is up for debate. The East might be “weak,” but eight teams still have to make the trip to the postseason.

When people say anyone could make it in the East, odds are they probably are not thinking about the Orlando Magic. And who can blame them?

The Magic are a young team coming off a 25-win season with their fifth coach in six years. But that is not going to stop some from figuring out the most likely path for the Magic to make the playoffs this season. Coach Steve Clifford has floated out the notion. He has asked why the Magic cannot be the team that surprises the league.

It will take a lot of internal improvement for the Magic to get in the conversation. But there is a path forward.

The first thing is to recognize just how many games the Magic need to make the playoffs.

In the last 18 years, the average win total for an 8-seed has been 38 games, with the 2004 Boston Celtics having the lowest at 36 wins.

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO model predicts the Magic’s record to be 33-49. The Magic finished last season 25-57, going 10-20 against the West and 15-37 against the East. It seems unreasonable to expect the team picking up any games against the West, so the East is where the team will have to look to find some wins.

The early projections have the playoff picture looking something like this:

1. Boston Celtics
2. Toronto Raptors
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Milwaukee Bucks
5. Indiana Pacers

That leaves three Playoff seeds seemingly up in the air. The Washington Wizards and Miami Heat will have a lot to say for two of them. And certainly, the 8-seed is a huge question.

Obviously, the teams can be shuffled around a bit but that seems to be the case. Boston and Toronto should be jockeying for the top two spots. Then Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Indiana can fight over the last three. All five of these teams are likely to have close to 50 wins.

If the Magic want to have even a hope of playoff contention, a lot is going to have to do with how they deal with the rest of the teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

Here are the Magic’s records against each team in the East from last year:

The Magic will need to find somewhere between 10 and 15 losses in that chart the Magic can turn into wins.

The Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets are the most likely candidates to be jockeying for the 6-8 seed come the All-Star Break. Unless Charlotte decides to blow it up and trade Kemba Walker.

Making a playoff push is going to rely a lot on the Magic beating these four teams: the Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks. That comes to a total of 15 games  Orlando could add to its total from last year, assuming the team sweeps all four series. While this seems unlikely, running the table on the dredges of the Eastern Conference is the best chance the Magic have at sniffing the playoffs.

It is not terribly likely, which makes sense seeing as FiveThirtyEight gave Orlando a 19 percent chance to make the playoffs. But it is certainly possible.

There is some hope for us Magic fans.

Of course, there is another path to take. And certainly, the debate will rage again whether the Magic should take that path as the season goes on. It is the same debate the Magic had last year as they descended lower into the standings.

It might be the more viable path for the team in the end. Of course, the season has to play out first.