Orlando Magic have hope early season success was closer to the real team
The Orlando Magic’s new coaching staff has talked a lot about the team’s early start. They hope that is closer to the team’s reality.
Steve Clifford did not want to pre-judge his new team as he took over.
During his introductory press conference back in May, Clifford was not going to comment too much about his new team. He said a coach cannot really know a team until he starts working with them. And his re-introduction to the Orlando Magic would include a lot of film study of his team.
Until then, he would not say very much about them or comment too much about his hopes for his new team. Besides, the summer was still on the horizon with the chance to change some things up with the roster.
There was one thing Clifford would say about the team.
He was impressed with the Magic’s 8-4 start. He said that before the injuries really began to devastate the team, that relatively small sample size was not something to ignore. It was significant enough to take seriously. There was a good team somewhere hidden in the Magic.
The team was never as whole as it was on Nov. 11 when Jonathan Isaac went down to a sprained ankle. Then again, it was never really fully whole for much of the time before that either.
Aaron Gordon suffered an injury in the opening game, causing him to miss the next two. Elfrid Payton injured his ankle in the second game of the year, pressing D.J. Augustin into duty as the starter. He then went down to an injury a few weeks later, forcing Orlando to play Jonathon Simmons at the point for long stretches.
That injury was part of the beginning of the end. But Orlando never got its feet back under it. Isaac was out for most of the rest of the year. Then Terrence Ross went down to an injury for most of the rest of the season. Nikola Vucevic was playing the best basketball of his career when he broke his hand and missed the next few months.
The hits just kept coming. There is no doubt injuries were a big part of the Magic’s story in 2018. And ultimately led to the team finishing near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
Orlando may never have had enough to keep up that torrid start — especially from three. But the team surely was not as bad as its final record. There was a certain amount of lax play as the season quickly was lost. But that is expected when things get away from a team. It is tough to stay completely motivated and focused when there is nothing to play for.
There is a flaw to this narrative and this argument, of course. The same group that went 8-4 is the same group that lost the next nine games and fell out of the Playoff race in a matter of weeks. Those two teams exist within this group. Virtually the same group that is returning to play for the Magic next year.
Still, those injuries just completely knocked the team off its rhythm. It is at least possible that the team could have stayed fairly consistent and competitive without those injuries.
After all, there were stark differences between how several players played after long absences.
Aaron Gordon averaged 18.3 points per game on 49.2 percent shooting and 40.1 percent from beyond the arc before an injury kept him out for seven of the next nine games. From that point forward, he averaged 17.1 points per game on 39.7 percent shooting, with two absences of five or more games in the meantime.
Nikola Vucevic was arguably playing his best basketball of his career in December. Before his hand injury, he was averaging 17.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game while shooting 34.3 percent from beyond the arc. After his injury, Vucevic averaged 15.2 points and 9.0 rebounds per game on 25.0 percent shooting from 3.
Both players kept up a lot of their raw production, but neither of them was nearly as efficient.
Would it be safe to say that they both would have continued their strong play without the injuries? The answer is probably not that simple. But obviously losing out on Terrence Ross and all the little things he did to make the team better hurt. And losing Jonathan Isaac and his defensive energy hurt the team a lot too.
The Magic had some very real and very good lineups in that 8-4 run. Lineups they could easily replicate this coming season with the whole group coming back.
The most-used lineup in that time featured D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic (66 minutes across five games). It had a 121.1 offensive rating and 95.1 defensive rating. It is hard to say how that lineup would do the rest of the season thanks to Ross’ injury.
The next most-used lineup in that time with all returning players featured Jonathon Simmons instead of D.J. Augustin, coming in that stretch when the Magic were down all their point guards near the end of their strong run.
It is hard to draw too many conclusions. And it is even harder to say whether the team could have carried that play over. The roster was just so drastically different. And players like Elfrid Payton and Shelvin Mack are gone.
It is not clear what will work for the Magic. Their most-used returning lineup — D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic — had a 106.4 offensive rating and 106.8 defensive rating.
Orlando did not get to see a lot of play with Isaac on the main roster. And Ross’ absence looms large — he was a part of several of the Magic’s better lineups from his short run when the team was playing well.
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Clifford expressed plenty of optimism that something worked with this group and this team early on in the season. And something clearly did.
Even then, it seemed like it was not something sustainable. The sample sizes were just a bit too small, it appears. Especially against the overwhelming evidence of the rest of the season.
And the Magic do not seem to be returning a lot of the same elements that worked. The season started heading south when the team lost Payton and Augustin to injuries. They had to platoon Mack and Simmons at point guard.
Orlando’s point guard situation has not improved very much.
But Clifford has talked positively about the start of the season. He has said he feels like it is something the team can replicate.
Maybe that is just the positive thinking of a coach taking on a new job. He has to believe in his team and share that belief as a basis for getting buy-in from his returning players.
Expecting the team to repeat that early season play for longer periods of time might be asking too much.
Yes, injuries derailed the season and were a constant story throughout. But Orlando was already starting to struggle before the big rush of injuries started. And, at the end of the day, the Magic never could write the ship themselves.
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Still, the belief remains. The Magic holding onto that 8-4 start as tight as they can and imagining that this is who the team really is if it were not for those injuries. Maybe the team will see shades of that team again and it will point to a stronger future for this team.