Orlando Magic could wriggle some cap room for 2019 free agency bonanza
The Orlando Magic sat on the sidelines in free agency in 2018. Their bloated payroll is coming to an end. They could have room as soon as this summer.
The story for the Orlando Magic this summer was one of patience.
The team had almost zero cap maneuverability and the main priority was re-signing Aaron Gordon to a new contract. That ate up all the available money for the team to spend.
While Orlando still had the $8.6 million mid-level exception to use, the team opted not to spend it on anyone else. At least so far. The team only spent about $2 million to secure multi-year deals with Isaiah Briscoe and Melvin Frazier.
The only other move of note this offseason outside of the Draft was the trade to acquire Jerian Grant and Timofey Mozgov.
With Summer League now over — and the San Antonio Spurs trading Kawhi Leonard — the active part of the NBA’s summer is over. The league will go quiet until late September when training camps open. Indeed, president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman already has said the team is done with its moves this offseason, barring anything unforeseen popping up.
Fans rightly expect the roster that starts the season will not be the one that ends it. There is still a lot of work the Magic have to do take another step up and improve.
The roster is far from complete and has plenty of holes. How the Magic fill those holes and needs will be the story for much of the upcoming season as much as the team’s development of Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba.
With the offseason activity mostly over, the team can begin to analyze and break down what its books will look like heading into next offseason. It is never too early, right?
And next offseason promises to feature a lot more free agency action.
Among the notable free agents in the summer of 2019 are: Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker and DeMarcus Cousins. Plus the rookie class that features Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Terry Rozier. Spotrac estimates 13 teams — including the Magic — could realistically have $20 million in cap room that summer.
That is a bit more change to spend to improve the team. Of course, there is still a lot of things in play and a lot that can happen. Trades and other roster moves could determine what direction the Magic head in 2019 free agency. So too could the results of the season.
The biggest problem facing the Magic in free agency during the last six years is their poor record. Quite simply, players are not going to jump into a bad situation — unless they get overpaid. They want to see the team make progress before committing.
That means if the Magic have another sub-30-win season, it could be tough to add a big-name free agent. But if the team surprises and shows it is on the cusp of the Playoffs things might change. Orlando should become attractive again.
With where the Magic’s most important players — Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba especially — are developmentally, the team is probably not ready to push in for free agency quite yet. It feels more likely the Magic will use their available cap room in the summer of 2019 to acquire some salary in a trade involving one of their expiring contracts — like Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross or Jonathon Simmons.
For now, it might be helpful to get a clearer picture of what the Magic’s salary sheets look like — all courtesy of Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders.
According to his salary database, the Magic have $69.3 million guaranteed for next year. Amazingly, $53.6 million of that is committed to three players — Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Timofey Mozgov. Before even getting into options and other likely pickups, it is easy to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Orlando may not have a lot of cap flexibility right now, but they should get some soon. Evan Fournier and Timofey Mozgov’s contracts are running up. Mozgov’s expires after the 2019 season and Fournier holds a player option for the 2020 season. Gordon’s contract will continue to decline over the next few years. And other important players like Isaac and Bamba are still on rookie deals.
The biggest task for Weltman is to continue managing the cap to hit free agency when his team is ready for it and the right player is available. Or using that room and his available assets to acquire valuable players in a trade.
In either case, flexibility seems to be on the way. The important thing is not to repeat the mistake of 2016 when the Magic had a lot of cap room and simply spent it without getting much for their return.
They still have to be shrewd with who they spend their money on and when they decide to push in for a Playoff run. Investing heavily in free agency would suggest the Magic beleive their core is ready for that extra boost to compete.
That $69.3 million number is not the realistic salaries committed right now though. There are a lot of options the team is likely to pick up.
Isaac’s third-year team option is an obvious one. It is safe to assume the Magic will keep Jonathon Simmons at this rate too. That adds another $11.5 million to the guaranteed total.
So the Magic are more realistically sitting with $80.8 million in committed money to next summer. For now, we will ignore potential cap holds for restricted free agents Rodney Purvis and Jerian Grant. Or for free agents-to-be Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross. Or the non-guaranteed deals for Wesley Iwundu, Melvin Frazier and Isaiah Briscoe. And the potential draft pick the Magic might have next year (expect that to be about $5 million).
If the salary cap again comes in at this year’s mark of $102 million, that leaves the Magic with that $20-million-plus of room from earlier.
Indeed, there seems to be a light at the end of this tunnel if the Magic feel comfortable to try to add some veteran support players next summer. Certainly, that was not an option for them this year.
Orlando Magic
Weltman may not have used the mid-level exception this year to add that veteran player, but he did a good job maintaining cap flexibility. That might have been the ultimate purpose. Getting another year to realize where the team’s weaknesses are and identifying players in free agency who could fill those gaps is still valuable for a developing team.
Then again, it seems more likely at this point that Orlando will use that cap space to absorb contracts in a trade.
Orlando’s selection of Bamba almost certainly spells the end of Vucevic’s time with the team. If not this summer then soon. Fans have longed for a change at the position — although no player the Magic have acquired have been able to knock Vucevic off his perch despite his shortcomings as a player.
Vucevic’s four-year deal expires at the end of the season. It is hard to see the team re-signing him — and certainly not to anything more than the $12.8 million he makes this year. That expiring contract should make him more valuable in the trade market around the trade deadline too.
The same could be said for Ross — owed $10.5 million in the final year of his deal. Ross might be a guy the Magic want to keep around depending on his health and how he looks this season. But he could be another valuable trade chip for the team around the deadline.
And whenever expiring salary goes out, typically some long-term salary comes in. The Magic are not likely to trade those players for long-term salary unless it is someone they are willing to commit to. But it is fair to assume the Magic could be willing to eat into about half of that available cap room around the trade deadline to deal one of these players.
Realistically then, Orlando is not likely to be a player in 2019 free agency. It would be hard to see them do that anyway with the team’s current roster situation. They need to take some tangible steps first.
But the Magic are setting themselves up to have financial flexibility to be ready to strike when that time comes — perhaps in 2020, maybe in 2021.
Orlando could make themselves a free agent player sooner. That feels unlikely for next summer, but the time is coming soon.
Next: Orlando Magic building something different, but familiar
The most important thing is the team can see light at the end of the tunnel. If they want to add the big-name free agent in the coming years, they can. But the most important step is to develop what they already have on the roster.