For Orlando Magic to make offseason changes, they have to take on more money
The Orlando Magic are not likely to be players in free agency any time soon. To make major roster changes, they have to be willing to eat a bad deal.
For the Orlando Magic fans who do not follow contracts and salary sheets, the start of free agency might be a bit confusing to them. Surely a team with just 25 wins and that has failed to have a winning record in six seasons would have enough cash to add an impact player.
The reality though is that as the clock turned midnight on Saturday evening, the Magic were on the sidelines. Largely relegated to watching other teams vie for free agents while the Magic pick on the edges.
The juiciest free agent rumor with the Magic involved. . . Jerami Grant, a wing defender known more as an inconsistent shooter and as the nephew of former Magic forward Horace Grant. Grant ended up sticking with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Another potential Magic target in Fred VanVleet re-signed with the Toronto Raptors.
Fans will love to speculate that Orlando will chase after Isaiah Thomas on a short-term, make-good deal. But more likely, the Magic are going to use their limited resources to shore up their depth.
This is all to say, for a second straight year, expect the Magic to stay very quiet in free agency. Having already taken care of Aaron Gordon, they will again search for bargains once the first wave of signings dies down.
Really, the Magic may not make any moves until they survey the trade market. In all likelihood, this is where Orlando will have to make their moves to change the roster and fill their needs — especially at point guard.
It is here where the team will have to put its focus. And it is here the Magic have to make a calculated gamble and understanding of what the market will bear. They will quickly come to the realization they must take on a bit more salary to extract value from a deal.
It seems highly unlikely the Magic will be able to turn Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier or Terrence Ross into a starting-caliber player straight up. They just are not good enough even on expiring contracts for Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross. It seems equally, if not more, unlikely the Magic will attach one of their future first-round picks to any deal. Except for that future Thunder pick which does not seem likely to be a first-round pick.
So how do the Magic get better? How do the Magic get that point guard they need and move pieces around this roster?
The answer is a simple realization Orlando will not be playing the free agent game for a little while longer. In order to move off some of their players that no longer fit the roster, the Magic will have to be willing to make a sacrifice. And that sacrifice is likely future flexibility.
To trade a player like Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross or Evan Fournier will require the Magic have the willingness to take on big money in free agency. It might be the only way to execute a deal that extracts some value.
That means delaying when the Magic will attack free agency. With where the team is at competitively, that might make sense. Orlando is not nearly competitive enough to attract marquee free agents. Working on the fringes and developing their roster is still the best way forward.
As things stand entering free agency, the Magic had $79.6 million guaranteed for next year — including waiving Shelvin Mack‘s final $5 million and guaranteeing Khem Birch‘s second year. The team entered the summer with cap holds for Mohamed Bamba (roughly $5 million) and Aaron Gordon (a little more than $16.5 million). That brings the Magic right up to the projected cap line of $101 million.
Already Orlando does not have enough room to sign anyone without using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. That is an $8.6 million tool the Magic can split among several players if they would like. And Gordon’s four-year, $84-million contract will put the team over the cap, no matter how the team structures his yearly salary.
While the Magic remain far enough away from the luxury tax line, the team is clearly going to have a bit of a bottleneck on its books for a while.
And it may be that way for a few years.
Without accounting for Aaron Gordon’s new contract or Mohamed Bamba’s rookie contract, the Magic have $25.6 million committed to the 2019 season. It is safe to assume Bismack Biyombo will opt into the final year of his contract ($17 million). And it is safe to assume the team will pick up Jonathan Isaac‘s third-year option ($5.8 million). For now, too, it is safe to assume the Magic will use Jonathon Simmons‘ final year at $5.7 million (only $1 million is guaranteed).
That brings the Magic’s committed total right now to about $53.1 million. Add roughly $21 million for Gordon and another $5 million for Bamba. The Magic are probably looking at $79 million committed to the 2020 season already.
That provides some wiggle room if the Magic want to renounce Ross and Vucevic’s Bird Rights and release their cap holds. The salary cap this year was set just lower than $102 million. It will likely have a modest increase next year.
But the question remains: Are the Magic ready to play the free agency game again during a busy summer when many of those high-priced contracts handed out in 2016 come off the books. That part seems unlikely. Especially if the Magic want to make something more of their season this year.
If the plan this year is to trade Vucevic ($12.8 million, expiring), Ross ($10.5 million, expiring) or Fournier ($17 million, three years), it means taking back equal money. And it is hard to see a team offering an expiring deal and a nice young asset to make that happen.
If the Magic are intent on flipping over their roster and beginning to change personnel, that likely means having to take on a big contract. Thereby delaying when the Magic play free agency. To move these deals and bring back a player of value, the Magic will have to take on a so-called “bad contract.”
If they want to extract a young asset from the Los Angeles Lakers as the third team in a Kawhi Leonard trade, it will likely require they take on Luol Deng (two years remaining, $36.8 million) or Pau Gasol (two years remaining, $32 million). Want to try to nab Kemba Walker from the Charlotte Hornets? That likely means taking on Nicolas Batum‘s contract (three years remaining, $76.7 million).
Orlando Magic
Want to acquire a high-level point guard in a trade? That will also cost the team.
Targets like Dennis Schroder (three years remaining, $46.5 million), Brandon Knight (two years remaining, $30.2 million) or Eric Bledsoe (one year remaining, $15 million) all have major price tags attached to them.
It seems in almost any way the team can make a deal, it would require them to take on a salary obligation beyond this year.
Orlando, again, is not likely to have a ton of room next year. In fact, unless the team has a surprising run, they are probably not likely to be a major player in free agency. Nor will they be a team free agents would want to move to.
It puts the Magic in a position where they are willing to take on money this year. Maybe heading into the 2020 season to make those moves and acquire a good long-term asset to grow with their team. The Magic do not have to play free agency quite yet.
It seems like Jeff Weltman and John Hammond think about long-term prospects more with this team. They do not seem to have the impatience to push all in on free agency before they have to.
Next: Orlando Magic Offseason Manifesto: Gauging the free agent and trade markets
Unless the Magic plan to hit free agency sooner than expected, Orlando can afford to wait. And take a big contract to make it work and grab that player they want.