2018 Orlando Magic Draft Preview: Moritz Wagner—great shooting, limited upside

Moritz Wagner has the shooting and offensive skills to be successful in today’s NBA, but his limited defensive versatility and rim protection limit his upside.

Basketball has changed in recent years. With the creation of the 3-point line and the new reliance on analytics, players have to be versatile to have value.

Gone are the days of the big man who can only work around the rim. The Shaquille O’Neals of the world are gone with a new breed of centers — the stretch five — replacing them.

Teams are moving away from centers who cannot knock down the three or defend the perimeter. The Golden State Warriors and their revolutionary small-ball lineups have taught teams that immobile centers are a weakness on the court.

While Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson were successful centers only a few years ago, now players with skill sets like theirs have limited roles in the NBA. Orlando Magic center Nikola Vuecevic is a prime example, as he cannot compete with the more agile centers in the NBA and is a major defensive liability.

Michigan Wolverines center Moritz Wagner is the new breed of center and indeed an interesting prospect in this year’s draft.

Wagner, likely to go in the late first to early second round, is an intriguing player at this spot in the draft. Wagner is a capable scorer and was arguably the best player on the runner-up Wolverines last year. But he is streaky from behind the arc and, for his size, is a weak rim protector. That limits what he can do in the NBA.

The Wolverines’ tournament run is reflective of Wagner as a prospect. The team, while finishing second in the tournament, was maddingly inconsistent.

One game, such as the one against Texas A&M Aggies, the team and Wagner looked unbeatable. Wagner dropped 21 points in the 99-72 victory in the Sweet 16 game. This great performance was sandwiched between two weak 12-point games, games where the Wolverines needed Wagner to step up.

Then in the Final Four, Wagner scored 24 points with 15 rebounds against the Loyola Chicago Ramblers. Unsurprisingly, he followed this great performance with a weak performance in the championship blowout.

This is Wagner as a player. When his shot is not falling, he often fails to contribute. But when his shot is working, he becomes a matchup nightmare.

The question — his success in the NBA will depend upon this —will be how he develops a game outside his shot.