Orlando Magic Daily’s Final NBA Draft Big Board

EAST LANSING, MI - JANUARY 26: Michigan State Spartans forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (2) drives to the basket during a Big Ten Conference college basketball game between Michigan State and Wisconsin on January 26, 2018, at the Breslin Student Events Center in East Lansing, MI. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
EAST LANSING, MI - JANUARY 26: Michigan State Spartans forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (2) drives to the basket during a Big Ten Conference college basketball game between Michigan State and Wisconsin on January 26, 2018, at the Breslin Student Events Center in East Lansing, MI. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Anfernee Simons
SPRINGFIELD, MA – JANUARY 14: IMG Academy Ascenders guard Anfernee Simons (3) shoots the ball during the first half of the Spalding Hoophall Classic high school basketball game between the Vermont Academy Wildcats and the IMG Academy Post Grad Ascenders on January 14, 2018, at the Blake Arena in Springfield, MA .(Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Tier 7

The Orlando Magic coming away with more than one player from the following tier should be considered a mild disappointment, as almost none of them have a realistic shot at a second contract as a starter on a good team.

The first few players in the tier at least have some combination of upside intrigue (Anfernee Simons or Donte DiVincenzo as bench shotmakers) or floor (Jevon Carter as a backup that can scale alongside a star or Omari Spellman as a Thaddeus Young fascimile). But beyond that, this tier is most likely non-NBA players.

36

Jevon Carter PG

West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia Mountaineers /

Scouting Report

37

Anfernee Simons Wing

All NBA
All NBA /

Scouting Report

38

Omari Spellman Big

Villanova Wildcats
Villanova Wildcats /

Scouting Report

39

Donte Divincenzo Wing

Villanova Wildcats
Villanova Wildcats /

Scouting Report

40

Aaron Holiday PG

UCLA Bruins
UCLA Bruins /

Scouting Report

41

Bonzie Colson Big

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish /

Scouting Report

42

Rodions Kurucs Wing

All NBA
All NBA /

Scouting Report

43

Malik Newman Wing

Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Jayhawks /

Scouting Report

44

Isaac Bonga Wing

All NBA
All NBA /

Scouting Report

45

Kevin Hervey Wing

All NBA
All NBA /

Scouting Report

46

Rawle Alkins Wing

Arizona Wildcats
Arizona Wildcats /

Scouting Report

47

Khyri Thomas Wing

Creighton Bluejays
Creighton Bluejays /

Scouting Report

48

Alize Johnson Wing

All NBA
All NBA /

Scouting Report

49

Ajdin Penava Wing

Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall Thundering Herd /

Scouting Report

50

Devon Hall Wing

Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers /

Scouting Report

This final tier is largely upside fliers and likely career backups or starters overseas.

Again, modern wings and players with even a remote chance at an important starting role should be prioritized over players who even at their realistic ceilings will be replaceable in free agency.  This board is limited to 50 players, but this tier could extend farther to include Allonzo Trier, Moritz Wagner, Ray Spalding, Devonte’ Graham, Grayson Allen, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Hamidou Diallo, Jaylen Adams and Chimezie Metu.

In any draft, players selected in this range historically have very little chance of offering above-replacement value to the team who picked them.

Jevon Carter stands out as perhaps the only one who it would be more surprising to see fall out of the league than it would be to see him get a second contract. But there is almost zero chance he is a starter on a good team. Still, for Orlando he could bring a nice cultural infusion with his consistent motor.

The 35th and 41st picks may present some interesting options in the event Elie Okobo, De’Anthony Melton, Mitchell Robinson or Jacob Evans fall, which seems possible given the mock draft ascendancies of Aaron Holiday and Jerome Robinson.

But without that happening, those picks probably will not return much long-term value, and with that in mind they should be actively considered in trade talks.

If there is an overarching conclusion to be drawn from drawing out this board, it is that there is a clear dropoff at two major points: 11 and 36. There is a mid-tier wing surplus and scarcity at the other positions outside of the top of the draft.

Next: 2018 NBA Draft: Where the Orlando Magic might target trades

So perhaps the best strategy is to draft a wing in the 20-40 range and a non-wing at the top.