Orlando Magic Daily’s Final NBA Draft Big Board

Tier 4

There is All-Star upside in these two tiers, but also a handful of high-floor prospects with easy translations.

Robert Williams, for example, has a fairly narrow range of outcomes that peaks around Clint Capela and valleys around Khem Birch. If the Magic traded down or up into this range, they could go a few different directions, swinging for the fences or hitting a bloop single.

11

Michael Porter Jr. Wing

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12

Elie Okobo PG

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13

Robert Williams IV Big

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14

Marvin Bagley III Big

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15

Zhaire Smith Wing

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Michael Porter Jr. is arguably a greater risk than Trae Young except with lower upside given his lack of burst, tight ball-handling, quick decision-making or passing. Elie Okobo and Robert Williams come in higher than Marvin Bagley III because both have much clearer pathways to defensive playability, positive defensive impact and positive passing. All this while Marvin Bagley makes very little sense alongside Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac as a core moving forward.

Okobo is the second-best shotmaking guard in this draft while Williams is the best bet as a dynamic roll threat.

Zhaire Smith rounds this tier out because of his motor, instincts and athleticism intersecting at such high levels at an incredibly young age. That framework gives him a moderately high floor. But he needs massive levels of skill refinement to attain the upside for which some analysts have penciled him in.

Tier 5

This next range of the draft has some tougher evaluations from Orlando’s standpoint.

Collin Sexton and Jacob Evans are high-floor, low-ceiling prospects with strong intangibles. But Sexton lacks the scalability and decision-making of a player likely to become a good team’s starting point guard while Evans is ready-made NBA wing who does not have much equity as an advantage creator, defensive stopper or high-usage offensive player.

Evans is realistically the better overall prospect but Sexton gets the slight nod because of his position and intangibles, both of which happen to be massive needs for Orlando.

16

Kevin Knox Wing

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17

Collin Sexton PG

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18

Mitchell Robinson C

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19

Jacob Evans Wing

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20

Dzanan Musa Wing

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To different extents, Dzanan Musa, Mitchell Robinson and Kevin Knox are mysterious, high-variance outcome prospects. Robinson put up shot-blocking stats in the EYBL surpassing all of his big man competition in this draft, can handle the ball and shoot. But he never got to show what he could do at higher levels of play.

Knox’s role with the Kentucky Wildcats was mostly limited to shooting midrange jumpers off of pin downs, spotting up and attacking closeouts. But he may have the athleticism and physical coordination to offer a little bit more as a secondary creator.

If his shot does not fall in the NBA, it is hard to imagine what he does that makes him worth a roster spot as he also lacks a defensive role.

Musa is a dynamic pick-and-roll scorer with an incredibly light frame and poor defensive instincts, giving him routes to NBA Sixth Man of the Year stock or borderline unplayability.