Jerome Robinson is coming off one of the most prolific scoring seasons in recent ACC basketball history. His versatile jump shot and ball handling make him an interesting prospect.
The Boston College Eagles had one of college basketball’s most explosive backcourts last season with Ky Bowman running the point and Jerome Robinson at the 2-guard slot. With Bowman electing to exit the NBA Draft and return to school, only Robinson will be an option for NBA teams this year.
Although Bowman is the more capable lead guard from a passing vision standpoint, neither player is an adept enough decision-maker to warrant using a high pick on them as point guard prospects.
Robinson is about four inches taller than Bowman at 6-foot-5, and thus projects more comfortably as an NBA wing. He will be a more capable defender at his position, making him arguably the better overall prospect considering their similarly high-level scoring acumen.
Of course Bowman will have another year at school to increase his NBA lead guard stock, so that is neither here nor there.
This article is about Robinson — an athletic 20 points-per-game scorer who can shoot the lights out from anywhere on the court. It is easy to see the appeal especially for an Orlando Magic team in dire need of shooting and shot creation.
He is good shooting off the bounce, off the catch or off screens and movement. Robinson can finish above and below the rim, shoot from beyond the NBA 3-point line and from midrange. His shot release motions are generally speedy and his lower-body quick-twitch muscles allow him plus deceleration.
He can operate primarily as an off-guard in starting configurations but pick up more primary creation duties with second units, playing a role similar to Will Barton, Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Austin Rivers and others in that mold.
Defensively he leaves a lot to be desired, just like those four aforementioned NBA gunner types, both on the team and individual levels.
He had the worst Defensive Player Impact Plus-Minus of anyone on his team with at least 500 minutes played by a wide margin, indicating a significantly negative effect on his team’s ability to get stops and raising justified concerns about his ability to stay on an NBA court.
The Good
Looking purely at shotmaking ability, Robinson is about as good of a prospect as you are going to get in the second round and perhaps even outside the Lottery.
His versatility as a scorer gives him multiple avenues to offensive usefulness in the NBA, even if it is as nothing more than an additional floor spacer.
There is a certain point in the draft in which simply having one or two demonstrably translatable NBA skills alone can make a prospect worth considering.
Robinson is a fairly safe bet as a shooter, making 44.4 percent of 133 NBA-range threes, 40 percent of his threes overall and 83 percent of his free throws last season. He showed steady statistical improvement since his freshman year in those categories.
He also generated 1.19 points per possession on catch-and-shoot jumpers. All of those statistical indicators give him a pretty solid floor as an offensive two-guard.
His upside lies more in his creation ability, both off the dribble and by pressuring defenses via off-screen movement.
Robinson has a solid handle. Although he is not overly tight with the ball, his first step, leaping ability and overall scoring creativity make him a formidable isolation guard for many college defenders, especially big men forced to switch out onto him.
He is able to create efficient offense out of ball screens, generating 1.04 points per scoring possession there per Synergy, showing a solid feel for rejecting screens, handling aggressive defense and creating penetration.
His deceleration ability serves him well creating in one-on-one situations. Not only does he cover a lot of ground on step back jumpers, but his overall speed and closing speed combination allow him to shake slower defenders with relative ease. Traditional centers have a lot of trouble handling his slipperiness on switches even without a truly elite handle.
That athleticism also translates off-ball, where he ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring efficiency of cuts and as about average shooting off screens. His quickness in straight lines benefits him when moving from the baseline out to the perimeter in floppy sets and single-double actions. Here he also has good instincts with his use of screens, punishing defenders for going under and shooting gaps while gathering, turning and elevating into his shot release quickly enough to get the ball up before a late contest.
Similarly, his lateral burst makes him notable as an off-ball relocation force on the perimeter. This makes him capable of sliding up and down the arc and changing directions in response to shifting primary offensive actions.
Orlando Magic
It is worth emphasizing he does not space the floor only by standing outside the arc and hoping his defender will stay glued to him. But he doubles down on his gravitational effect by pressuring his man to relocate with him, drawing more consistent attention and increasing the opportunity cost of help defense.
He has flashed some ability to post up smaller guards, turning over either shoulder for fadeaways that are difficult to contest due to his elevation and high release point.
Lastly, his at-rim finishing is the cherry on top of his scoring profile.
He has the explosiveness to elevate above the rim off one foot in space. But more importantly, the coordination and touch to change directions in midair and finish with impressive reverse layups among the trees. His finishing through contact is worth noting but the translatability of that to the NBA is questionable due to his lack of girth and serious length.
His finishing ability also adds some depth to what he can provide coming off of dribble handoffs, pin-down screens or back-cutting against top-locking defenders afraid of his 3-point shot.
If a stunt or long trailer prevents him from shooting immediately off the ball reception, he can put it on the deck in space and score efficiently at the basket. If a defender tries to take away his airspace coming out of the corner to the wing, he can cut backdoor.
It is hard to find flaws in Robinson’s scoring profile. He is statistically and mechanically adept at putting the ball in the basket in almost every way imaginable. But there is much more to the game than scoring. And it is those areas that may prevent Robinson from being a net positive in the NBA.
The Bad
Jerome Robinson’s decision-making is what prevents him from being a legitimate primary creator prospect.
When he is not already in motion, he has a worrying tendency to catch-and-hold instead of making the extra pass or immediately putting the ball on the deck to beat a scrambling defender closing out. Similar to French prospect Elie Okobo, he often gets himself into difficult positions on ill-advised drives, having to either pick up his dribble, take a bad shot or commit a turnover.
While being capable of executing some flashy passes, his more impressive-looking reads are generally some combination of slowly made, simple or low-leverage. Obviously, that makes it hard to envision him as an effective starting lead guard in the NBA. But it also calls into question his ability to function in a synergistic offense that requires all offensive players to at the very least make quick, smart decisions.
These points of concern are borne out in his unimpressive 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio.
That (and his defense) may leave him with a ceiling no higher than a bench unit microwave. A useful role to be sure, but maybe not at the top of a championship-seeking franchise’s needs list.
The NBA gunner types mentioned in the first slide — Will Barton, Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams and Austin Rivers — can also function as defensive comparisons, which is obviously not a good thing for Robinson.
Like those four, he underperforms relative to middling physical tools (advanced quickness, light frame, slightly positive wingspan, roughly average positional height) because of some combination of inconsistent engagement levels, poor feel for team concepts and ball-watching.
He racked up a grand total of five blocks in more than 1200 minutes. For an athletic 6-foot-5 wing, that is abysmally low. Even the steal numbers (30 total) are disappointing.
He often finds himself in disadvantageous situations off the ball due to ball-watching tendencies. This depletes the extent of his speed advantages by unnecessarily increasing recovery distances. He just is not in a position to make defensive plays as frequently as he should be.
His physical tools make him not a complete lost cause on defense. His rebounding numbers are also not far off from where his successful NBA analogs where in college.
But given how good of an offensive prospect he is, it is disappointing to think that whatever value he might bring there might be lost on the other end.
Glenn Willis, Peachtree Hoops
"Robinson needs just enough refinement on both ends of the court that he will likely need to spend some amount of time in the G League unless he is drafted by one of the five (or so) worst teams in the league. And he is already 21 years old. So that combination is likely what will have him drafted most likely in the second round, with the possibility (as displayed by some mock drafts) to slip into the first. But that spot in the draft is where teams will be looking for upside. And his scoring prowess along with an increasingly well rounded offensive game could be attractive. He’s one to keep and eye on."
Jonathan Givony, ESPN
"A smooth, high-IQ combo guard would certainly look good in Milwaukee’s backcourt rotation, especially one that can offer shooting, creativity and has the versatility to play either on or off the ball. Robinson had one of the most productive campaigns in ACC history for Boston College."
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
"Fluid athlete who changes directions quickly while staying under control. Tight ball handler with a wide array of moves; he especially likes using hesitations, fakes, and in-out dribbles when he’s going left. Uses either hand to finish at the rim with touch, and he occasionally slams down monster dunks when he has space. . . . Inconsistent shooter in pick-and-roll and isolation situations. He’s able to create space for himself, but he’s not a game-changing bucket-getter. Average finisher against length and athleticism due to lack of lift jumping off one foot, but occasionally shows off acrobatic layups. Forces the issue at times instead of making the simple pass, which could be a byproduct of his role as the go-to scorer."
Final Word
Jerome Robinson would be an interesting second-round selection for the Orlando Magic as a player with some microwave ball-handling upside and floor-spacing ability.
Despite his defensive flaws, this franchise should be eyeing offensive talent with at least one of their selections this year, whether it is ancillary or primary in nature. The Magic are as deprived of spacing and creation as almost any team in the league.
Given what seems to be a gradually-forming defensive identity, with Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon as Steve Clifford’s centerpieces moving forward, the Magic may have more wiggle room to squeeze in a prospect like Robinson who could benefit from being surrounded by mobile, rangy defenders.
From Robinson’s perspective, Orlando is a good situation. Though he would likely start the season in the G-League, he would almost certainly get run with the big club. Once there, he could receive an outsized offensive role for a rookie with his profile simply due to the lack of other options late in the season (assuming there is not a playoff run).
His shooting gravity could also lead him to have a net positive effect on the Magic’s best lineups while also benefiting from surrounding defensive pieces. Synergy with the cornerstone pieces could act as a litmus test when deciding who is worth keeping around through 2021.
In general, interest in Robinson probably depends on your opinion of his NBA analogs. If you felt Lou Williams was a deserving All-Star, that J.R. Smith deserves minutes over Kyle Korver or that Jamal Crawford has a Hall-of-Fame case, you might take him just outside the lottery.
If you do not feel those ways about those things, you might not take him until the late 30s or 40s. Fortunately, the Magic will be picking in the latter position. They will not have to negotiate with themselves whether net-neutral bench gunners are as valuable as two-way wings with less shot creation ability.
Next: NBA Draft Preview: Who is Mikal Bridges?
It is hard to negotiate with Robinson’s scoring highlights though. The Magic could use a player like Jerome Robinson. If for no other reason than to remove some of the scoring onus from non-creators.