Mikal Bridges has one of the highest floors in the NBA Draft. He is a guy who can hit 3-pointers and defend well. But where is his ceiling?
There are precious few players at the top of the NBA Draft who have stayed in school long enough to show real progression and real growth. At least going from role player to star player. The kind of growth that is supposed to come for young players as they get more playing time and experience.
It is a steady progression and growth that has gone away from the game in a lot of ways. Development became a job for the NBA teams taking in all the freshmen players. And that means not every player comes ready to enter the league.
Finding a player with some elite skill or trait that had developed over years in the college game has become rare.
This is where talk of “ceilings” and “upside” become a negative thing. The unknown in the Draft seems to have more value than the known. That is the unfortunate reality for a lot of players. There are precious few who spend real time in college and can generate buzz in the NBA.
Malcolm Brogdon was the last player to win rookie of the year with more than one year of college experience. And he won in a year that had a poor rookie class — he was taken in the second round. Damian Lillard in 2013 was the last upperclassmen before then to win. It is a rare thing.
Mikal Bridges is probably not that kind of player. But he was the kind of player who burst out and grew year over year. No one really saw him becoming this player his junior year. A key player to a national championship team.
Bridges is just solid in a lot of ways. That is how he nearly doubled his scoring average to 17.7 points per game and shot 43.5 percent from beyond the arc. He posted a 62.3 percent effective field goal percentage. He was an efficient 3-point shooter and a solid overall player.
Bridges proved capable of going on big scoring bursts, getting hot from three and slashing to the basket. There is a lot to like. Even if he may never be the star player that teams want at the top of the Draft.
Instead, at the very least, Bridges seems like a safe bet to become a solid role player for any team that drafts him.
The Good
Players are supposed to get better. Year over year, they are supposed to improve. And not every player is ready to contribute right from the start not at a star level. It feels like in Draft analysis, everyone views that slow progression in college to be a bad thing.
A player like Mikal Bridges just needed time. His game was better suited to slowly grow in a role and improve his shooting.
His shooting came a long way from his freshman year. He simply was not a NBA player before this season. But he quickly established himself as the kind of player a veteran team like Villanova could rely upon. His consistency throughout the year and his spurtability from the outside transformed him into a Lottery pick.
Bridges averaged 17.7 points per game with a 62.3 percent effective field goal percentage. He hit on 43.5 percent of his 3-pointers, growing from his 39-percent shooting as a sophomore. Everything just seemed to get better and better for Bridges got older. His confidence just grew and grew.
You could see it in his shot most of all. He came around screens ready to fire and shoot. And rarely did he take a contested shot. It was all perfectly in rhythm and within the flow of Villanova’s offense.
Bridges knew where to float on the perimeter to be where his teammates needed to see him. He was always available to receive that pass and drain the 3-pointer. Give him any daylight, and he was going to make it more often than not.
Where his game really expanded and took a leap was in his drives to the basket. He established himself as a good enough shooter that teams respected his shot. He drove on those close-outs effectively and had good athleticism finishing at the rim.
What stands out most about Bridges, and why he projects so highly in the NBA, is he just knows where to be on the court. That preternatural ability to slide over where a driver can find him best at the 3-point line is not merely running plays or sets. That is knowing where he needs to be to keep the defense off balance and support his teammates.
That is on offense. On defense, Bridges stands out too. He has good length for a player at 6-foot-7. He has the size teams want from a wing player. And projects as a high-level 3-and-D player. His defense was a big part of what made Villanova a truly great team last year.
His emergence and his consistency as a shooter and scorer made them champions.
The Bad
It did take Mikal Bridges a long time to find his role. That development is not necessarily a bad thing. It is that he is so much closer to his ceiling that has most teams slotting him comfortably near the 10th pick and not much higher than that.
Bridges does not project to be much more than a role player. A 3-and-D-plus player and a guy who can score in bunches is not an every-night All-Star. That is not what a team like the Orlando Magic are looking for at this part of the Draft.
He would fit in perfectly with some of the contending teams near the top of the draft like the Cleveland Cavaliers or Philadelphia 76ers. But it is hard to see him busting out and being more. And that is fine. That does not take away from his game. But it limits his projection at the next level.
Bridges even in his stellar junior year, he was not always the guy with the ball in his hands. He often found himself a passive participant in the offense. That was partially by design.
He works better off the ball. But Bridges did not take over games with his presence. He took over games by burning defenses for sucking into Villanova’s other weapons — like point guard Jalen Brunson and wing player Donte DiVincenzo.
Bridges is the kind of player that will make teams pay for leaving him open rather than the one to get others open and be the generator and driver of an offense.
No one should draft him expecting to put him on the ball and be a go-to scorer. That is just not in his DNA. He is a spot-up shooter and capable wing. Think Evan Fournier with a bit more athleticism and much better defense.
That inevitably puts a ceiling on his potential. It does not take away from what he can do in the end. But it limits what a team can expect from him when he arrives.
Draft Sites Say
Jonathan Givony, ESPN
"Bridges is an easy player to slot on almost any NBA roster, thanks to his multipositional defensive versatility, 3-point shooting and role-player potential. He isn’t as gifted a shot creator as you’d like from a top-10 pick, but on this roster, he won’t need to be."
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
"Unselfish team player who keeps the ball moving and plays within himself. Competitive, experienced defender who has the speed to contain guards and length to handle wings. Effective catch-and-shooter with NBA range; flashes the body control necessary to develop into a shooter off screens. . . . Lanky upper and lower body may put a cap on his defensive versatility — can he defend larger forwards? Lacks crafty ball-handling moves and is a subpar shooter off the bounce. Has improved every year in college as a shooter, but may struggle in the NBA due to the hitch in his shot."
Cole Zwicker, The Stepien
"Bridges is mostly viewed as a high floor, low ceiling prospect, but his improvement this season as a shooter adding diversity to his shot and developing extreme confidence gives him avenues to higher offensive upside. It’s not unfathomable that Bridges develops into a Khris Middleton type offensive player with the ability to shoot over the top of defenders on pull-ups and operating off screens, but with better defense (and hopefully better shot selection). Every team in the league can use a player like that. Bridges’ development in college, primarily offensively, has been noticeable, and it’s possible he continues to develop at a higher rate than what we typically see from older players. Bridges’ very conducive fit on any roster with valuable two-way ability gives him a safe floor to value, and his shooting progression to potentially sub-elite level could render him one of the most valuable star role player types to enter the draft in some time."
Aran Smith, NBADraft.net
"Prototypical 3-and-D wing for the next level … 6-7 guard/forward with elite length, athleticism and skill set … Has evolved from being a defensive standout to one of the best outside shooters and wings on the college level . . . The biggest knock on Bridges is his lack of strength. Not an overly physical player … His 2.8 FTs made on 3.4 attempts show that he doesn’t attack the rim and get to the line a great deal. His FTA/FGA ratio is below 30% at 28.0%."
Final Word
Mikal Bridges is a solid player. That is what stands out most about him. He can hit 3-pointers and open jumpers and attack in straight line drives. He uses his length and athleticism well around the basket in transition too.
Bridges also uses that length well defensively. He was a strong defender for Villanova, often guarding the best perimeter player on the other team.
That slotted him as whatever the Wildcats needed him that year. And it makes him someone who projects as a contributor at the NBA level. Bridges fits in and stars in whatever role he needed.
The scoring output likely will not be as great when he reaches the NBA level. He is not an on-the-ball potential All-Star. He does not have much of an isolation game. It was one of his frustrations during his stellar junior year. Bridges never took over games. He just got hot from beyond the arc.
Bridges will find a role in the NBA because he can do the simplest things really well. He can hit open 3-pointers and defend at a NBA level. There is a role for that kind of player on every team.
But in the NBA Draft, teams are looking for different things. The Orlando Magic are looking for something a bit more. They need a player who can transcend his position a bit and help drive the team forward. The Cleveland Cavaliers (8th pick) or Philadelphia 76ers (10th pick) probably need the role player Bridges will surely be.
That is part of the weight that comes with selecting Bridges. But he will be good. He is a more fully formed player than many of the freshmen. If he can extend to NBA 3-point range, he will provide a major immediate impact to whatever team he comes to.
Next: NBA Draft Preview: Who is Jarred Vanderbilt
Just do not expect too much.