Before the season, Jarred Vanderbilt had a case to be considered one of the best prospects in his class. Injuries derailed him, making him one of this year’s more unique players.
As a high school player, Jarred Vanderbilt was a five-star recruit and consensus top-15 prospect drawing comparisons varying from Lamar Odom to Draymond Green to Dennis Rodman.
It is more than fair to debate the accuracy of each of those, but that should illustrate two things: Firstly how tantalizing his strengths were. And secondly how difficult it is to fit Vanderbilt’s game into a pre-existing template.
His time with the Kentucky Wildcats was disappointing for a myriad of reasons, not the least of which was a foot injury limiting him to just 14 games.
Partially due to the limited role he was given, he also did not demonstrate noticeable improvements in his main areas of weakness — shooting, finishing with touch or his off hand and lower body strength.
To put it bluntly, not being a reliable finisher at the basket while also not having a jump shot caps anyone’s NBA utility. Vanderbilt is an excellent athlete and can elevate for dunks. But he does himself no favors as a secondary creator or role player if defenders can comfortably sag off of him either as a pick-and-roll operator or as a functional wing driving from the perimeter.
His shortcomings are nothing to sneeze at. They are potentially damning.
But similarly, his strengths are so profound. He could find a role as an athletic, ball-handling small-ball 5 who is an elite rebounder and immensely versatile on defense just as easily as he could never make a NBA roster.
It should say a lot about those strengths that he decided to remain in the draft despite the combination of injury struggles and a complete lack of even passable shooting range.
Vanderbilt is a hard worker who applies himself to the game with as much fervor as anyone who plays the sport, understands the game and will at the very least pass the ball, rebound and defend multiple positions well.
It is just a matter of how much his weaknesses will inhibit his ability to do those things in a way that makes him worth a contract and rotation minutes.
Because of this jarring juxtaposition of positives and negatives with his game, Vanderbilt has built himself cases to get drafted anywhere from the late first round to, well, not drafted at all. Let’s start with his case for the former.
The Good
The ball handling and passing in a power forward’s body is what jumps off the screen with Vanderbilt. He has the skill, handle, technical proficiency and offensive feel of a guard but the strength, frame, athleticism and height of a prototypical modern big man. That is a rare combination.
His passing feel off the dribble and in dynamic offensive situations combined with his vertical athleticism gives him an easy translation as a pick-and-roll dive man who can make advanced contextual reads.
Becoming a volume pick-and-roll ball handler even in secondary or angle situations is within his reach as a higher-end outcome. But he has more room to fail there than he does as a dive man, where he almost certainly can provide utility.
That vertical athleticism and wingspan makes him a viable lob target, opening up additional passing angles for his point guards (upwards) and sucking in corner help, then exploiting it by passing to corner shooters. His versatility catching either at the rim or away from it before driving helps his projection here.
He can also provide considerable value as a rebounder. He posted an absurd 23.1 percent offensive rebounding rate at Kentucky. For context, no player in the Sports-Reference database (since 2009 for that specific statistic) accomplished that with more than 150 minutes played — Vanderbilt played 238. He also averaged more than 18 rebounds per 40 minutes.
Even considering the small sample size, those numbers are eye-popping especially for a player with a relatively light lower body. But more than anything those numbers speak to his nonstop motor and how quickly he gets off the ground.
While a strong base is useful for boxing out effectively, a strong upper body, hustle and the physical tools to reach over guys make Vanderbilt an absolute force on the glass.
His coordination and explosiveness as a driver is also an important point for consideration, as it could somewhat mitigate his lack of shooting gravity. As Ben Simmons and Giannis Antetokounmpo have demonstrated, defenses will still have to play up on you if you have enough physical driving power with a head of steam to bulldoze or step around smaller stationary defenders.
That said, even considering Vanderbilt’s strength and athleticism, he is simply not nearly in the same class as those two in terms of coordination and fluidity with the ball.
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Lastly, his defensive potential is possibly his strongest selling point. He has the instincts and vertical pop to be an effective weakside shot-blocker and transition force, the quickness in every direction to consistently stay in front of guards and the strength to hold up in the post against similarly sized players.
Vanderbilt is also a sound team defender who can shift momentum going north-to-south more quickly than most big men. That helps him close out to the perimeter and stick with drivers. His motor is another key here, as he regularly makes multiple efforts and rotations to prevent team-level breakdowns and open shots for the opponent.
His lateral burst is worth mentioning as well, as he is able to force many drivers from the perimeter to their weak hand via positioning but slide with them laterally on straight-line drives.
He will have to drastically improve his base to be a viable defender of NBA 5s but it is not hard to imagine him being an effective defender of four positions.
A standing reach of 8-foot-10 is good enough to envision him as a good defensive small-ball 5, but not as a legitimate every-down back, so to speak. He tends to be a little jumpy when rotating for potential blocks, so that will need to be reigned in. But you would rather a player his age be overly eager to play defense than be not eager enough.
There is a lot you can say about Vanderbilt. But you cannot say he is wholly reliant on any one skill for a pathway to contract-worthiness.
If he is on the court, he can find a way to be productive. The questions about him lie in whether he can stay on the court and if so, whether he will be used in the NBA in a way that accentuates his strengths and ameliorates his weaknesses.
The Bad
Jarred Vanderbilt’s strengths and weaknesses are impossible to discuss in complete isolation from one another.
For example, his scoring deficiencies significantly hinder his ability to create for others despite his excellent passing feel. So much of what this slide will contain was touched on in the previous slide.
Defensively his main weaknesses are his light lower body, technical rawness and somewhat disappointing agility in his hips.
At this stage, he does not have a strong enough base to defend post players in traditional isolation or box those players out. Instead, he has to rely on his upper body strength, quickness, vertical and physicality to front in the post, high-point rebounds and use swim moves to get into position under the boards.
Those are perfectly valid pathways to generating positive value as a small-ball center but he clearly does not have the size to play large swaths of minutes at the five.
Vanderbilt has the aggressiveness and instincts to make plays on the ball every possession, making good rotations, maintaining awareness and putting forth great effort.
But he regularly jumps for blocks without so much as a credible shot fake and does not always sit down in a defensive stance and lower his center gravity quite enough to maximize his quick-twitch movements, which caps his effectiveness containing guards on switches or even in traditional pick-and-roll defense.
That may be a function of his relatively weak base.
For a big man, he is definitely going to bring positive mobility and switchability. But considering one of his biggest selling points is 1-through-4 switching, his hip agility is somewhat underwhelming.
He is slower than one would like at times rotating his body to contain smaller players. Because of that, he can sometimes be caught in suboptimal positions in isolation. Unless he manages to significantly strengthen his base and make it easier on himself to get low in a defensive stance, his equity as a legitimate lockdown switch defender is fairly limited.
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None of that is to argue anyone should be excessively concerned about his defensive projection. But it may place him out of the upper tier of this class’s defensive prospects even before the injury concerns, distributing some more emphasis on the other side of the ball.
His offensive weaknesses have been well-chronicled. Because he is as far away from being a shooter as anyone in this draft and is most effective scoring via dunks, putbacks and even baby jump-hooks, he is effectively an offensive five while being primarily a defensive four.
That makes his fit tricky. Ideally, he should be paired with a center with the size to defend in the post and box out and either a shooting center or more capable shooters in the backcourt.
Obviously, he is not nearly the player Draymond Green is on offense or defense (even Green is a more reliable spot-up shooter). But Vanderbilt’s ideal NBA situation would be playing a similar role, where he can play alongside a point guard comfortable without the ball for some possessions, grab-and-go, short roll, play center with excellent shooters in certain configurations, pass out of the post and run an occasional pick-and-roll.
But that would also require him to make strides as a defensive player on switches. The bottom line is that offensively he will be reliant on spacing, and no team should rely on him to provide spacing or consistent scoring even as a third or fourth option in whatever lineup he plays in.
So he will need to provide elite defensive and rebounding value — which is possible — to earn rotation minutes.
Draft Sites Say
Mike Schmitz, DraftExpress
"In the half court, Vanderiblt does most of his damage off the ball. He’s an excellent cutter and an outstanding offensive rebounder. He shows tremendous feel moving off the ball and almost always crashes the glass from the weak side. Vanderbilt can operate with the ball a little bit in the half court as he’s a comfortable straight line slasher, but he doesn’t have overly long strides, he isn’t a threat to shoot it (either off the catch or the bounce) and has very average touch around the rim with both hands. While he’s excellent off the ball, Vanderbilt doesn’t offer much in terms of scoring in the half court. On the defensive side of the ball, Vanderbilt is a monster. He can guard at least three positions thanks to his size, length, lateral quickness and instincts. Vanderbilt is better defending the perimeter at this stage because of his extremely thin lower body coupled with his ability to fight over screens and contest jumpers."
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic
"Vanderbilt had a tough year following a spate of injuries — something that is becoming all too common in his career. Vanderbilt has suffered multiple stress fractures over the last two years to his left foot, and a few additional ankle injuries. NBA teams will look closely at his medical testing results hoping to find that he can stay healthy. When he’s on the floor, Vanderbilt brings a few terrific aspects as well as one glaring weakness. Vanderbilt is a terrific defender, utilizing quick feet and length to cover ground on the perimeter with ease. He also has potential as a strong rim protector. Additionally, Vanderbilt’s nose for the ball can’t be understated, as he’s an elite rebounder for his size because of his motor and instincts. Once he gets that ball, he can grab and go and lead the break himself, and tends to operate best as a point-forward with strong passing ability. Still, the biggest issue is that he really struggles to shoot, to the point that NBA teams simply won’t guard him away from the basket if he were to enter the league. He’d be a liability in the half court."
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
"Plays with unbelievable energy and charisma; he’s a tone-setter on defense. Arguably the most versatile defender in the draft; has the frame, length, speed, and mind-set to become a four- or five-position defender. Not an elite shot blocker, but uses long wingspan to alter shots inside. . . . Suffered multiple foot injuries in high school and missed three months at Kentucky after surgery on his left foot. A disastrous shooter with poor touch on shots from any distance outside of the restricted area. The lack of offensive spacing he provides will be an issue unless he’s surrounded by shooters."
Evan Tomes, NBADraft.net
"6’9 left handed point forward … Great size and length with a 7’1 wingspan and 8’10 standing reach, especially for a wing … Good athlete and versatility. Good vertical and coordination. . . . Can create jump shots but struggles to connect with consistency. Did show improvement in his senior year but still has a way to go in all areas as a shooter; free throws, midrange, and three point. Occasionally misses the rim on free throws. Shot 19% from three and 38.6% from free throw over the Nike EYBL … Great tools defensively but can show more commitment to that end of the floor."
Final Word
Jarred Vanderbilt is a tantalizing prospect. He has the potential to be a uniquely gifted rotation player in the NBA: A playmaking small-ball 5 who can capably defend every position.
He just needs to stay on the floor. The health concerns are very real and have followed him throughout his entire career.
A team also needs to use him properly to realize that potential. He will simply never be a reliable shooting or scoring option, relying on cutting instincts and putbacks to offer offensive value without the ball while not being a sufficient enough creation force to warrant being a primary option with the ball.
Injuries aside, the nonstop motor he showed at Kentucky would give him a pretty solid floor as a rebounder and energy big if nothing else. He can realistically add more value through his defensive versatility and equity as a secondary playmaker.
Strictly for the Orlando Magic’s purposes, it is hard to envision him as a solid pick anywhere besides the mid-second round, and even that might be a stretch. Bringing in another large forward without a reliable jumper even as a flier should be close to out of the question.
As stated earlier, Vanderbilt will need spacing to operate effectively, and the Magic do not currently have that to offer him.
The two main positives when viewing him through that lens are his hustle and defense. This franchise should be in the business of acquiring more players who consistently try hard. And adding another guy who can guard multiple positions alongside Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac could theoretically make for a formidable defensive unit going forward.
Aside from that, it is not an intuitive match despite the intrigue. If he were to go undrafted, which is certainly possible, it may behoove the Magic (and other teams) to look into signing him if he goes undrafted. But chances are there will be better options available at all three of the Magic’s draft slots.
In general, if Vanderbilt can overcome the health concerns, he may turn out to be one of this draft’s more undervalued talents. He is widely projected to go undrafted but still possesses immediately translatable skills and upside as a Draymond Green-lite secondary and short-roll playmaker with considerable defensive versatility.
Because of that, he is well worth a flier as an undrafted free agent even if he does not pass his physicals with flying colors. If he does check out all right, he is worth a look as early as the late first round.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft Preview: Who is Wendell Carter Jr.?
But considering his questionable fit, the Magic would more likely be in the former market than in the latter.