2018 Orlando Magic NBA Draft Preview: Jerome Robinson, a quiet assassin in the ACC
The Good
Looking purely at shotmaking ability, Robinson is about as good of a prospect as you are going to get in the second round and perhaps even outside the Lottery.
His versatility as a scorer gives him multiple avenues to offensive usefulness in the NBA, even if it is as nothing more than an additional floor spacer.
There is a certain point in the draft in which simply having one or two demonstrably translatable NBA skills alone can make a prospect worth considering.
Robinson is a fairly safe bet as a shooter, making 44.4 percent of 133 NBA-range threes, 40 percent of his threes overall and 83 percent of his free throws last season. He showed steady statistical improvement since his freshman year in those categories.
He also generated 1.19 points per possession on catch-and-shoot jumpers. All of those statistical indicators give him a pretty solid floor as an offensive two-guard.
His upside lies more in his creation ability, both off the dribble and by pressuring defenses via off-screen movement.
Robinson has a solid handle. Although he is not overly tight with the ball, his first step, leaping ability and overall scoring creativity make him a formidable isolation guard for many college defenders, especially big men forced to switch out onto him.
He is able to create efficient offense out of ball screens, generating 1.04 points per scoring possession there per Synergy, showing a solid feel for rejecting screens, handling aggressive defense and creating penetration.
His deceleration ability serves him well creating in one-on-one situations. Not only does he cover a lot of ground on step back jumpers, but his overall speed and closing speed combination allow him to shake slower defenders with relative ease. Traditional centers have a lot of trouble handling his slipperiness on switches even without a truly elite handle.
That athleticism also translates off-ball, where he ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring efficiency of cuts and as about average shooting off screens. His quickness in straight lines benefits him when moving from the baseline out to the perimeter in floppy sets and single-double actions. Here he also has good instincts with his use of screens, punishing defenders for going under and shooting gaps while gathering, turning and elevating into his shot release quickly enough to get the ball up before a late contest.
Similarly, his lateral burst makes him notable as an off-ball relocation force on the perimeter. This makes him capable of sliding up and down the arc and changing directions in response to shifting primary offensive actions.
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It is worth emphasizing he does not space the floor only by standing outside the arc and hoping his defender will stay glued to him. But he doubles down on his gravitational effect by pressuring his man to relocate with him, drawing more consistent attention and increasing the opportunity cost of help defense.
He has flashed some ability to post up smaller guards, turning over either shoulder for fadeaways that are difficult to contest due to his elevation and high release point.
Lastly, his at-rim finishing is the cherry on top of his scoring profile.
He has the explosiveness to elevate above the rim off one foot in space. But more importantly, the coordination and touch to change directions in midair and finish with impressive reverse layups among the trees. His finishing through contact is worth noting but the translatability of that to the NBA is questionable due to his lack of girth and serious length.
His finishing ability also adds some depth to what he can provide coming off of dribble handoffs, pin-down screens or back-cutting against top-locking defenders afraid of his 3-point shot.
If a stunt or long trailer prevents him from shooting immediately off the ball reception, he can put it on the deck in space and score efficiently at the basket. If a defender tries to take away his airspace coming out of the corner to the wing, he can cut backdoor.
It is hard to find flaws in Robinson’s scoring profile. He is statistically and mechanically adept at putting the ball in the basket in almost every way imaginable. But there is much more to the game than scoring. And it is those areas that may prevent Robinson from being a net positive in the NBA.