Injuries muddied the waters for Jonathan Isaac‘s rookie year. But it was also clear he was the player the Orlando Magic wanted all along.
NBA players can usually derive their production from two things: their environment and the lottery balls that put them there.
When it comes to a team’s fortunes, everything hinges on the bounce of the balls. And even that player’s ultimate success can change based on where teams line up in the Lottery.
Will Prospect A end up on a team full of dedicated, well-habited veterans ready to show him how to win (while also giving him nothing but garbage time), or will he land on a team that gives him free reign to show off, mess up and learn through experience (all while losing and being in what can only be a pretty horrible situation)?
And that is assuming we know of a team’s intentions. Are they looking for building blocks or seat sellers? A quick fix or the long term? A star or a role player?
This and a thousand other decisions went into deciding exactly what became of 60-odd rookies this season. Including Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac.
Considering the wealth of talent uncovered in this past draft, it would be easy to get lost in the shuffle. This is a top 10 repped by such names as Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markkanen and Dennis Smith Jr. (with Donovon Mitchell landing at 13th).
There is a lot of scoring, flash, handles and dunks in that top 10. Isaac did not fit that description. Orlando drafted him as a defender and that is what he delivered in an injury-filled rookie year. But he did not make the headlines of his fellow classmates (just like top overall pick Markelle Fultz who battled his own injuries this year).
The Orlando Magic deserve applause for not biting on one of the flashier scoring talents that remained in the draft. Considering the many woes of recent years and a fanbase who rarely get to cheer, who could blame them if they had gone for an athletic guard that might sneak into the top 10 plays every now and then.
Maybe they would even get a representative at the rookie game. Just something, anything, to distract from the team’s record.
But no, the Magic made the tough choice and chose a building block for the future.
Isaac fit a longer-term vision of the team.
Isaac has modern NBA written all over him. He is long at 6-foot-10 with an 85-inch wingspan (for reference, Tatum’s arms reach 83 inches). But he is fast and coordinated enough to match today’s requirements of sprinting from the blocks to contest threes and switch out onto guards.
His quick feet and defensive smarts shout winning material when put in the right situation. While his defense and rebounding are his obvious selling points, the ability to knock down a three or two is essential for this NBA.
That was part of his development curve with the team.
So it seems a clear decision. Secure a solid team player, give him some reps to practice his skills. Prepare for later.
That was the intention. But in the NBA there are intentions and there are results.
And the results tell a different story, one of a rookie who missed 55 games, the entire middle chunk of the season and finished with averages of 5.7 points and 3.7 rebounds.
Isaac is not the type of player whose game will ever be truly reflected in numbers. The biggest number from Isaac was that the team had its best defensive rating with Isaac on the floor. That is merely an indicator he was having a defensive impact, but nothing definitive.
There was evidence there that should be pointed out. That can tip the scales in a decision of whether Isaac had a successful rookie campaign or not.
But there is also the confusing point that his 3-point percentage of 34.3 percent (decent for a rookie) was almost as high as his field goal percentage of 37.9 percent (not decent for anybody). He struggled to find any type of offensive rhythm and his shot needed a lot of work.
His defense, where he had his share of highlights recording 33 steals and 30 blocks in just 27 games, countered this narrative. Despite missing the majority of the season, Isaac ranked 22nd in total steals and 14th in total blocks among all rookies.
Isaac’s rookie year was a mixed bag.
It only becomes more complicated when looking at his injury. Problems first occurred in mid-November, when Jonathan Isaac came down on Emmanuel Mudiay‘s foot after swatting a layup into the crowd. What should have been a celebrated play by Magic fans quickly turned sour, as the sprain turned out to be severe.
He missed the next month and only played three more games before going back on the shelf again. His ankle just would not heal right.
The Magic opted to take things slowly, even with the pressure of their fast start slowly fading away. Orlando needed Isaac, but the team had its eyes set far beyond these games.
The timing of his absence could not be any worse for a rookie, other than missing training camp.
Any momentum he experienced early on was gone. His conditioning obviously took a hit and there are key development milestones that have not been hit yet.
Orlando Magic
For all intents and purposes, Isaac is going to have a second rookie season next year. Even if all goes well, it will be the first time playing 40, 50 or 60 games or more. He might hit the wall he did not even get a chance to sniff this year. Not to mention the multiple teams and matchups he will be experiencing for the first time.
The only difference is he will come with the knowledge of what it is like to play in the NBA. Not to mention a full offseason of training to get ready — gains he is already seeing.
The argument has already been had over whether Isaac was just unlucky or is already injury-prone. To watch the injury itself makes it seem like it was truly random. But both Jonathan Isaac himself, as well as former coach Frank Vogel both pointed out the need for Isaac to improve his lower body strength to prevent these types of injuries from being so long-lasting.
Even with the large injury asterisk around Isaac, the question remains: Did he have a good rookie season?
Annoyingly, it is quite hard to even analyze a difference between beginning and end.
Looking at his splits from pre All-Star break and post All-Star (he played in 15 games before, 12 after) reveals almost identical stats. Or stats that completely negate each other.
For instance, his defensive rating fell, but his three-point percentage improved. His field goal percentage dropped, but his steal rate massively grew.
Such was Isaac’s season. Too chopped up and irregular for anyone to see any pattern, or for him to show any improvement.
It comes back to what type of player the Magic want in Isaac. This injury and irregular play would have looked doubly worse for one of those flashy guards.
Isaac still delivered in his limited minutes exactly what the Magic drafted him for. When looking at per-35 among rookies, Isaac ranked seventh in steals. For blocks, exactly the same. At times, he showed the capability of banging inside and locking up outside, though he has mastered neither yet.
Though he was able to knock down 3s, it is obviously not something he can rely upon just yet. His playmaking skills, mainly due to his lack of handle, are next to non-existent. But that comes back to that role, that environment that Isaac can fill.
Next: Individual improvement the paradox of Magic's season
Orlando has to foster a space for Isaac to continue to grow. And that is the biggest challenge ahead of the team.