The 2018 season was supposed to be a year of significant growth for De’Anthony Melton, a high-motor, high-IQ point guard prospect. Instead, he sat out from a NCAA rules violation.
A 3-point shot has become something of a prerequisite for playing almost any position in the modern NBA. But especially for point guards.
No matter how good an initiator prospect is at everything else — playmaking, defending, rebounding, hustling, cutting — if he cannot force defenses to respect his shot, there will be skepticism surrounding his potential impact.
Evaluating De’Anthony Melton is a microcosm of that phenomenon.
During his lone season with the USC Trojans, he shot an ugly 28 percent on 74 3-point attempts. His mechanics were just as ugly, employing a catapult-like two-motion release that would make Michael Kidd-Gilchrist blush.
Maybe that is a little harsh. But the aesthetics were not there, and the results were far away too. It was a key area for improvement heading into this season and he never got to show the progress, if any, he made.
Given the improvement trajectory, Melton had already shown going from completely off NBA radars (not cracking the RSCI top 200 out of high school) to a likely first-rounder, it should surprise no one that the glimpses we have seen of his changed mechanics look promising.
But even without the jumper, Melton has been an impressive player. He is arguably this year’s best defensive prospect on the wing, using his IQ and anticipation to jump passing lanes for deflections and his wingspan and athleticism to lock opponents up on the ball. Melton is also an instinctual cutter with good offensive feel.
His package of wingspan, defense, IQ and athleticism should make him an attractive selection for any team, but especially for an Orlando Magic front office that has historically valued all of those things and should also be seeking a point guard.
The Good
Defense, particularly help defense and off-the-ball activity, is De’Anthony Melton’s calling card. He is a quick-twitch lateral athlete with long limbs and eye-popping anticipation, allowing him to make calculated gambles and disrupt offenses without conceding too much of his primary assignment.
Marcus Smart is a popular comparison for him. Melton also is not afraid to mix it up down low, fight with big men for rebounds and scrap for loose balls. His frame and competitive nature make him hard to exploit in mismatch situations.
He is a terror in the open court and halfcourt, getting off the ground quickly and hanging in the air for chase-down blocks in transition. He uses his elite-level awareness and opportunistic nature to accumulate defensive plays in help defense situations.
His freshman year, he registered steals on 4.0 percent of opponent possessions and blocks on 3.9 percent of opponent 2-point shot attempts. Those are ridiculous numbers for a young guard.
Only five other freshmen guards have reached 3.5 percent in both categories. Of those, Melton was clearly the best offensive player, leading the group in true shooting percentage and offensive box plus-minus.
They are obviously very different players, but the intersection of IQ, motor and athleticism he brings might remind some Orlando Magic fans of Jonathan Isaac. It is not hard to imagine Jeff Weltman and John Hammond valuing De’Anthony Melton highly as well.
Generally speaking, the offensive end is where most of his room for improvement lies. But he is still a good player on that end.
Orlando Magic
Using Jacob Goldstein’s Player Impact Plus-Minus, he had a roughly equal positive impact on both sides of the ball. He is a smart player with good passing vision who can ignite the fastbreak with his rebounding and transition playmaking. He makes quick decisions and looks for the extra pass when he receives the ball on the perimeter.
The jump shot is the big question, but he has made encouraging strides during his time on the sidelines. That should not be a surprise given his work ethic and competitive mentality.
During the NBA Draft Combine, pickup play at the Drew League and in scattered workout videos, his shot has looked much better.
Take those flashes with a grain of salt. But he clearly recognized his shooting as a weakness early on and has since made visible improvements. At those events, his mechanics have looked more fluid. His elbow is in more than it was, his dribble-to-shot transition on pull-ups has been quick and smooth and he has also knocked down jumpers with varying momentum. All very encouraging and tangible developments.
He may never be a 40 percent 3-point shooter. But if those alterations are to be believed, he can encroach on 35 percent range. That is enough to force defenses to respect his shot. But even without that, his intelligence, athleticism and sheer force of will may be enough to make him an NBA player.
The Bad
Depending on your opinion of Jonathan Isaac, De’Anthony Melton’s combination of strengths and weaknesses may either be enticing or off-putting.
It is perfectly reasonable to argue the Magic should not be in the business of drafting more defensive prospects with raw offensive games. They clearly need shot creation and more jump-shooting. There is a reason why Trae Young has been their selection in almost every mock draft released since lottery night.
For all Melton’s strengths, he is not the kind of point guard prospect who will unlock an offense through his scoring or passing. He makes smart, quick reads and is a technically sound passer. But his tape sorely lacks the high-leverage passes that are commonplace for Young and other top-shelf offensive creators.
His projection also depends on how much you buy into his strides mechanically with his jumper. If he can be a respectable spot-up shooter, then it is easy to imagine him sliding alongside another point guard or initiator. Especially considering his instincts as a cutter and defensive versatility. But if defenders are not punished for sagging off him, his scalability becomes murkier.
And that scalability is important. Based on what we have seen so far, his handle and passing acumen are not quite what you would want in a lead ball handler. He is too smart, active and hard-working to be an outright liability.
But offensively he is better suited either leading a bench unit or being a secondary playmaker. To do that effectively he needs to fit alongside other ball-handlers and impact the game offensively in a diminished role.
His motor and consistent effort crashing the offensive glass and cutting into open space for easy buckets give him a relatively high floor and an avenue to scale down without the shot. But to unlock his ceiling either the shot or more high-leverage passing will need to be there.
Even defensively, there are reasons to question just how impactful he can be. Measuring 6-foot-3.25 in shoes at the Combine, his standing reach is about one inch greater than Terry Rozier’s, whom LeBron James repeatedly bowled over despite his best efforts in the Playoffs.
Guarding James is an unfair lens to evaluate anyone’s defense though. But it is a cause for concern watching a similarly-sized, high-motor player providing an opponent a place to attack almost every possession.
With him unable to play competitive basketball this year, much of his game is still shrouded in mystery. As a hard worker that rose from being ranked 223rd in RSCI to a potential lottery pick, it is easy to feel good about him making whatever improvements he can.
Draft Sites Say
Mike Schmitz, ESPN
"As a freshman, Melton was the only player in the NCAA to average at least 10 points, five rebounds, five assists, 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes. Only seven players in NCAA history have posted such stats, with Dwyane Wade and Doug Christie headlining the group. Despite some limitations as a shooter and ball handler, it’s Melton’s instincts, defensive versatility and unselfishness at 6-3, 195 pounds with a 6-8 wingspan that make him intriguing to teams that are already full of talented shot-makers and ball handlers."
Cole Zwicker, The Stepien
"Melton, similar to Bridges, projects as a high level role-player in the NBA as a two-way combo guard with high-level functional athleticism, elite defensive instincts and who can also play make for others offensively. As with most players, shooting development is crucial for Melton. If he develops a workable spot up 3 he profiles as a potentially excellent two-way secondary creator at the next level as someone who contributes to winning basketball and who is ideally paired with a wing primary creator."
Paolo Uggetti, The Ringer
"Through the end of January, Melton was the only player in the nation averaging at least five assists, 1.5 blocks, and 2.5 steals per 40 minutes. His 99.5 defensive rating at season’s end was tops on his own team among players with at least 500 minutes, and especially impressive considering the team has an overall defensive rating of 103.2, which ranks 192nd in the nation. He also finished the season with the Pac-12’s best steal percentage, 18th in the nation, and as the only qualified player in all of college basketball to average two steals and one block per game. “He has an ability to contribute without having to score the basketball,” (USC Director of Scouting Martin) Bahar says. “Which a lot of players struggle with.”"
Ben Parker, NBA Draft.net
"Small 2-guard with impressive physical profile and defensive potential … Good court vision, knows how to push the ball in the open floor, quick release on his passes, able to find guys in the open floor for easy transition buckets … Very accurate passer. . . . While possessing the ability to score in a wide variety of ways, he wasn’t the best pure scorer in college … Averaged a modest 8.3 points per game in 27 minutes of action per game … He shot 28.4% from 3-point range and 70.6% from the foul line, so his shooting ability will have to get a lot more consistent if he wants to thrive in the NBA."
Final Word
The Orlando Magic need shooting and consistent shot creation. Drafting De’Anthony Melton would not be drafting to fill those needs, though he certainly can improve in those areas.
For some, that might be the bottom line, and reason enough to pass on him for a more offense-oriented prospect.
But pairing De’Anthony Melton with Jonathan Isaac and the sixth pick — whoever that might be — is a tantalizing proposition. Having multiple guys on the floor who are disruptive, nonstop competitors and incredibly smart defenders with range and versatility are exactly what modern NBA teams should be seeking in terms of roster construction.
And that competitiveness is something the Magic should be seeking as well.
It is no secret in recent years, a losing culture has taken root and buried itself deep within Orlando’s locker room. Fans will likely acknowledge that aside from some recent additions, most of this Magic team has a habit of playing selfishly and with poor effort.
Adding players who can flip that culture around should be a priority both in free agency and in the draft. Melton can be a part of that.
Every team can use someone with his makeup. Evaluating him for the Magic depends on your opinion of his offensive game and whether or not his scalability and opportunity cost precludes you from taking a better offensive player either in the future or in the 2018 Draft.
But wherever he ends up, you can count on him to find a way to contribute. Whether it is skying for rebounds, scrapping with bigger players, disrupting passing lanes, making the right plays on offense or opportunistically finding easy buckets. And if you do buy the shot improvements it is hard to imagine him not fitting in somewhere.
Next: Wendell Carter Jr.: NBA Draft's biggest mystery
In some ways, although we have seen him for a full season, Melton is enigmatic. Because we have not seen a large sample of him recently, some elements of his game are a gamble. But he is the exact kind of high-character guy you would want to gamble on.