Wendell Carter Jr.: The NBA Draft’s biggest mystery, and maybe its safest bet
Orlando Magic fans seem fixated on finding a star in the NBA Draft. But Duke Blue Devils big man Wendell Carter Jr. might end up being the safest bet.
No one really knows just how good Wendell Carter Jr. can be.
His time with the Duke Blue Devils was a bit of a mystery. He put up decent numbers, but nothing eye-popping. Those went to his teammate Marvin Bagley III.
And while Carter is projected to go anywhere from No. 6 where the Orlando Magic are picking to sometime before the Lottery ends, no one can really peg him down as a player or what kind of player he can be in the NBA.
Teammates like Gary Trent Jr. say Wendell Carter Jr. is better than we all think. During his media availability at the NBA Draft Combine, Trent said Carter would be in the running for the top overall pick if it were not for Bagley being on the team (h/t John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com).
There may not be a ton of statistical evidence of that. A teammates’ hyperbole is not going to convince anyone. Especially when the tape showed Carter playing a more secondary role.
Yet, Carter seems to have all the tools a NBA team could want in a center. The attraction to him is evident, even if he does not grab the headlines like others in this range.
He averaged 13.5 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game. He averaged 20.2 points per 40 minutes and had a 12.8 percent offensive rebound rate during his freshman year. All this with a high-volume scorer and rebounder in Bagley playing next to him.
Carter was active around the basket and found his pockets to score. He was a perfect gap filler to make the Blue Devils a better team. It is his other skills though that will make him an intriguing NBA prospect.
Scouts will point to his advanced shooting for a big man. Carter made 56.1 percent of his shots and 19 of 46 3-pointers (better than 40 percent). That showed plenty of upside for him.
Then there is the defense. Carter blocked 2.1 shots per game in the center of Duke’s zone. He cleaned up a lot of the mess left to him from some of Duke’s poorer perimeter defenders. He is certainly not why Mike Krzyzewski bit the bullet and turned to the zone defense to keep his team afloat defensively.
The measurables check out too. Carter measured at the Combine at 6-foot-10 in shoes with a 7-foot-4.5 inch wingspan. Among likely first-round picks, only Mohamed Bamba and Jaren Jackson Jr. had bigger wingspans. The same goes for his standing reach — 9-foot-1 standing reach.
Of course, this all comes in small sample sizes.
Duke ended up not using him as a featured player. His offensive game is still limited to more basic pick and pops and pick and rolls. He is not the most explosive athlete going to the rim. Carter has a bit of a post game, but it is still fairly rudimentary. But what NBA team is using that anymore?
That lack of athleticism around the basket can be a concern. His second jump is not particularly strong. That could hurt him trying to score on putbacks off offensive rebounds in the NBA.
Condense his space or challenge him on a shot, and his effectiveness goes down a lot more. He is a fine passer out of the post with his back to the basket, but he probably will not do much for a team if he puts the ball on the floor.
Of course, the modern NBA center really does not have to do very much. He has to be able to protect the rim, be able to step out and hold his own to slow down guards and change their shots and play the pick and roll, possibly extending out to the 3-point line. Carter checks all those boxes.
It feels like Carter’s game fits the NBA and what it asks of centers more than the college game might.
Despite his teammates’ confidence in his abilities (and who knows, maybe Carter is that), Carter does not blow anyone away with his presence on the floor. It is hard to say he is a player a team can truly build around. There are still many holes in his game, just as there are strengths.
A team with an already established core could use a player like him. The common comparison for Wendell Carter is Al Horford. Horford is a strong, solid player. He helps set the culture for the Boston Celtics and does whatever is asked of him. That was true throughout his career. Even as a five-time All-Star, no one views him as that central player.
This is at the heart of the debate over Carter. Especially for a team like the Magic.
The Magic need good players at every position. And Carter is a good player. Of many of the top players, Carter seems to have the surest outcome. He will at the very least be a solid role player who can defend and hit the occasional jumper. Maybe a more idealized version of Nikola Vucevic, without the consistent post game and a developing jump shot (for the moment).
That would seemingly make Carter a really intriguing player. It sounds like a guy Orlando should be rallying around — at least as a viable option.
But it is also clear Orlando needs that central pivot point for the team to revolve around. For fans finding that All-Star has been an obsession. Surely the Magic’s front office is also thinking about this as they evaluate the prospects in this Draft.
The No. 6 pick lies somewhere between getting one of the very best players, taking a swing on a big star or taking the surest pick. Someone who can still grow but produce immediately.
This is the central tension thinking about Carter.
Orlando Magic
He may not be a star player or a potential star. Carter is not going to be a high usage player who can create for others. But he has a clearly defined set of skills that will be valuable to a NBA team.
Could a team like the Magic take a player with a lot of skill but maybe not the ceiling to be a star player? Or should they take a player that would fit the modern game at center well and provide some small immediate return with the potential for more — but not that much more?
These are questions that always fill draft rooms and draft discussions. There are often good players caught somewhere in the middle.
Carter is that good player now. That solid player that makes everything around him work. The kind of player every team needs.
Perhaps Orlando needs a different kind of player first. The team perhaps needs to focus on taking that swing on that star before finding players like Carter. Maybe there are steps to this process and a player like Carter is step four, not step two.
Carter may end up being a more-than-solid starter in the NBA for a long time. In fact, it seems easy to bet on that occurrence happening more often than not. Probably better odds than Trae Young becoming a Steve Nash/Stephen Curry hybrid.
But this is the part no one knows . . . just how good is Wendell Carter? Did Duke hold him back with their bevy of talented players? Is he truly a better NBA player than college player?
Next: Orlando Magic have star options in NBA Draft
While Carter does not seem to have the magnetism of other potential stars, his high floor and solid contributions — especially for the modern NBA — is not something any team like the Magic can ignore as they continue their draft evaluations.