The upcoming NBA Draft promises to have several potential star players. And one of them is almost guaranteed to be in an Orlando Magic uniform.
The NBA Draft Lottery has finally arrived. The team’s future will finally come into focus and the first major piece of the offseason will get completed.
The NBA Draft Lottery will at least give the team some guidance on the kind of player they will draft and what direction they should move with the rest of their offseason. It is a major piece of the puzzle.
Such a major piece that a lot of ink was spilled and a lot of debates had just on what would happen this day. As the season slipped away, so many believed the Orlando Magic simply should just tank the season and collect as many ping pong balls as they could.
This was the last year after all with the current odds structure. Next year, the top four picks will get determined by lottery with an even 14 percent odds for the worst three records. Rather than the 25 percent chance at the top pick the worst team gets this year. That is a major difference.
So was the difference between the number of chances the Orlando Magic would have had if they had lost the final game of the season to the Washington Wizards. They won, so they now have 88 combinations in the lottery — an 8.8 percent chance to win — rather than the 120-plus they would have shared with the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks.
There is no rehashing whether that was ultimately a mistake — Orlando tried really hard to lose that final game, honestly — it is what it is. There is only the future to look at and the Lottery is just a small piece of that.
Luck may shine down on the Magic and one of those 88 combinations may pop up through the hopper to deliver salvation. Or what the odds suggest will happen may happen and Orlando will end up with the fifth pick (26.1 percent) or the sixth pick (36.0 percent).
There have been a lot of debates about the necessity of getting a top pick. Missing out on the top guys and the absolute choice of the best prospects can certainly change a franchise. Especially in what many consider a loaded draft like this one.
It is never a bad thing to win the lottery and to have that choice. But even the top pick is not guaranteed that. There is a 75 percent chance the Phoenix Suns do not end up with the top pick.
But for a franchise that is seemingly as bleak as the Magic are right now, a top pick provides some salvation. The Lottery sells hope and that is something the Magic are extremely short on these days.
There might be a sense that the team ending up with the fifth or sixth pick would be something of a disappointment. Even if that is the statistical probability. Relying on these probabilities is a bit of a fool’s errand — everyone is sweating out the ping pong balls at the end of the day.
Despite how loaded this draft class seems to be, this is not the time to sweat these things out. The real game for the Magic has not truly begun. And Orlando has positioned itself well in a loaded draft to get an impact player.
No matter what happens tonight, the Magic are already on the path to recovery. They have begun forging a path forward.
This draft class is loaded with potential star players. Luka Doncic and Deandre Ayton appear to be the clear-cut one and two. They are the most refined and ready-to-play players. Each has their own flaws which could prevent them from stardom. No one is confusing them with potential surefire all-time great players.
But there are several other strong players to consider too — Jaren Jackson Jr., Mohamed Bamba, Trae Young, Marvin Bagley III and Michael Porter Jr. — who also have star potential. Even if they have some rough edges to smooth over.
Orlando is all but guaranteed to have their shot at one of these players. Or they could choose to go with Wendell Carter Jr., Collin Sexton or Mikal Bridges. They are all good potential players in their own right.
This is all to say, regardless of where the Magic land they will get a quality potential player. Probably one that most would view with star potential. Any player in those first two groups — a group of seven players — has clear star potential if they develop the right way. Each has a potentially elite skill. All will take time to develop.
The Magic have a 99.6 percent chance of landing a top-seven pick. While the team may not have its full selection, it will get one of these elite players.
And that will be a key piece for the team’s future. A potential building block next to Jonathan Isaac and likely Aaron Gordon. That is the beginnings of a core.
It also seems somewhat likely at this point the team is going to go through another rough season next year.
Aaron Gordon will still be going through the growing pains of his budding stardom (although it should be more refined). Jonathan Isaac will essentially be playing his rookie year after playing in only 27 games last year. And the draft pick will need the space to make mistakes.
It all likely means the Magic could make another return to the deep Lottery next year.
And the odds change next year. As the fifth-worst record next year, Orlando would have a 10.5 percent chance to win the lottery. The seventh-place team next year would have a 7.5 percent chance to win the Lottery.
Orlando could improve its record next year and have as good of a chance to get into the top four or the top spot next year.
Next year’s draft is not nearly as deep as this year’s draft. But the team could very well be in a position to add one more promising young player through the draft before beginning to make that turn. And cap room is on the horizon in 2020.
In either case, the team the Magic are likely beginning to build clearly has some intriguing pieces to build around. Even with whoever this draft pick is, the Magic suddenly have an intriguing young core. Even if Gordon is on a massive contract.
Tonight’s Draft Lottery is important. More importantly, the Magic need to draft the right person and get a player who will impact the team’s future. But where they land is not life or death.
The team will get a good player no matter what. Orlando will find someone who could potentially help the team grow and improve.
Next: Orlando Magic offseason calendar
From there it is all about how the Magic build their player development program. And how they let him — along with Isaac and Gordon — blossom.